| The tariffs President Donald Trump promised are here. On Wednesday, he announced tariffs on all imports — at least a 10 percent tax on foreign products that come into the country, plus more for automobiles and goods from countries he deems unfair trading partners, up to nearly 50 percent. “In the face of unrelenting economic warfare, the United States can no longer continue with a policy of unilateral economic surrender,” Trump said. These are the most expansive in nearly a century, and mainstream economists warn they could wreak havoc on the economy, resulting in higher prices for consumers, slower job growth or even job loss. The president previously put tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners, China, Mexico and Canada, on goods ranging from cellphones to car parts, and these new tariffs cover trillions of dollars’ worth of goods. “Tariffs are a tax, and they’re just not good for the economy,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the global auditing firm KPMG. “We haven’t run this experiment in living memory,” said Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. Here’s what to know and what could happen next as the tariffs take effect. Tariffs make things Americans buy more expensive: Under Trump’s tariffs, anything U.S. businesses want to import — clothes, tequila, natural gas — is taxed by the U.S. government upon entry. That makes those goods more expensive, as businesses typically pass the costs onto consumers. Everything Americans buy, from tomatoes to electronics, could soon get more expensive. “In some ways, tariffs are really simple: The goods come into the country, and you only get the good if you pay the tariff,” Sahm said. Trump’s tariffs could raise prices by more than $1,200 a year for the average household, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank that opposes tariffs. The tariff-recession connection: Americans’ economic situation could get worse when countries respond with tariffs on American products. Canada is pulling American liquor off its shelves, and Europe says it has a “strong plan” for retaliatory tariffs for American-made goods. Economists warn that all this will hit small businesses especially hard because they have less leeway to keep tariff costs from consumers. Economists also say lower-income Americans — who spend a higher percentage of their income on food and housing — could bear the brunt of the economic pain brought by the tariffs. In a worst-case scenario, economists warn tariffs could hurt businesses so badly that they have to cut jobs while raising prices, a pernicious economic phenomenon called stagflation that is very hard to fix. “There are a lot of ways in which the road ends up to inflation or worse,” Swonk said. Tariffs could pose a political risk for Trump: He campaigned on lowering the price of things for Americans. But polls are starting to show Americans are pessimistic about the ability of tariffs to benefit their lives. They’re also starting to spend less in anticipation and feel more down about their financial outlook, which could self-manifest into an economic slump or even recession, say economists. “I don’t see him doing anything to improve the price of food, gas or my everyday costs,” one California woman told The Washington Post in a recent survey. “I don’t think tariffs are the answer and neither does the stock market. “Widespread tariffs would be devastating for the economy, for middle-class consumers in particular, and would bring on a recession,” Jim Kessler, with the center-left think tank Third Way, said in an interview before Trump instituted tariffs on imported automobiles and auto parts late last month. “I just think Trump knows that.” Trump wants things manufactured in the U.S., but economists say that could take years: Economists I spoke with say they aren’t exactly sure what’s behind Trump’s focus on tariffs, but they shared a few potential reasons. Trump has said he wants things made in the United States. That’s a popular political reframing on both sides of the aisle. Trump also argued that other countries put tariffs on U.S. products, so the United States is going to do the same. “We’re going to be getting back a lot of the wealth that we so foolishly gave up to other countries, including friend and foe,” Trump told reporters Monday. Some American businesses want them: The Post talked to Christmas tree business executives who say that tariffs on Chinese artificial trees will protect their livelihoods. Tariffs could help pay for the tax cuts Republicans are trying to pass this year because they could bring in hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue, as the government collects these taxes on foreign imports when they arrive at the border. But tariffs are not a tool most modern-day developed economies use, in part because they are so risky to the economy — and offer uncertain gain. Global trade is hard to stop in its tracks. Economists say reorienting the entire U.S. economy inward is a massive project that would take years, if it works at all. “You’re talking billions of dollars to build a new assembly plant and a two- to three-year lead time,” retired auto supply chain executive Bill Hurles told The Post recently. “That gets to how complex and integrated the global economy is,” Swonk said. “Breaking up is hard to do.” Trump seemed to acknowledge the risk of the broad tariffs at Wednesday’s event but predicted history would look favorably on what he’s doing. “Hopefully, you’re going to look back in the years to come, and you’ll say: ‘You know what, he was right. This has turned out to be one of the most important days in the history of our country,’” Trump said. | 
