Hi, China Watchers. Today we look at how Beijing likely views the shenanigans at the Pentagon, check-in on the U.S.-China trade war and examine a Texas state lawmaker’s beef with allegedly racist land legislation.

Let’s get to it. — Phelim.

THE PENTAGON IS IN MELTDOWN. BEIJING’S GRABBING POPCORN.

China’s leadership is likely savoring the spectacle of a Defense Department in chaos.

The Pentagon is reeling from a series of senior level firings, resignations and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s alleged repeated sharing of sensitive military information in group Signal chats. The internal distractions in the world’s largest military are a boon for potential adversaries — and fits Beijing’s narrative that the U.S. is in decline.

“This maelstrom probably pleases China since this sort of chaos means the Defense department isn’t working on dealing with the number one priority — the threat from China,” said retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command.

Beijing has said nothing publicly about the turmoil at the Pentagon. But the department’s woes may provide Beijing a welcome distraction from ongoing scrutiny of allegations of military corruption and the replacement or disappearance of a string of senior People’s Liberation Army officials.

“The People’s Liberation Army hasn’t mentioned the Defense department kerfuffle in public or private I suspect because they live in a glass house with all their own turnovers,” said a former senior Pentagon official granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak about Hegseth’s problems.

The mess at the Pentagon fits neatly within the Chinese Communist Party’s narrative of a weakening American superpower with an outdated vision for the world. “China will view these [Pentagon] dynamics as part of the ongoing political polemic that is tearing American democracy apart,” said retired Admiral Mike Studeman, former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence. “Of course, they’ll contrast it with CCP stability, unity, and reliability.”

The string of revelations about Hegseth’s leadership also gives PLA strategists fresh data points in assessing the relative effectiveness of the U.S. military in countering potential Chinese aggression across the Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea. Chinese war planners are likely carefully studying the potential impact of Hegseth’s controversial leadership on U.S. military morale and crisis decision-making capacity.

“It probably gives them another variable — that maybe this is one opportunity that they can exploit,” said Lyle Morris, former country director for China in the office of the Secretary of Defense. “But I don’t think it’s a game changer for them to launch an invasion.” The Chinese embassy doesn’t want to talk about it. “China never interferes in the internal affairs of other countries and thus we can’t offer comments on this,” said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— ‘PRIDE FACTOR’ HOBBLES TARIFF REDUCTION TALKS: The status of any trade talks between the U.S. and China depends on who you ask. President Donald Trump’s 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports and Beijing’s 125 percent counter-levy on U.S. products has brought U.S.-China trade to a standstill.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a “de-escalation” in the U.S.-China trade war would occur in the “very near future,” POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reported Wednesday. That’s because, he said, “no one thinks the current status quo is sustainable.” But when later asked if U.S.-China trade talks are underway, Bessent said “not yet.”

Any breakthrough still appears elusive. “We still hear on the Chinese side that they don’t know who to talk to,” Christopher Adams, former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department, said at a joint Washington Trade Institute/Asia Society event Tuesday. Adams blamed a “pride factor” in both countries that is hampering the start of negotiations. “Where we are now is — who’s going to call first?” he added.

The stalemate is sending jitters worldwide. “The greatest concern we have is the potential decoupling of U.S.-China trade with the level of tariffs that we’re seeing between the two,” said World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala at a Council on Foreign Relations event Wednesday.

White House rhetoric remains vague. Trump said Wednesday his administration is “actively” talking to Beijing, but provided no details. That followed White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s equally ambiguous assertion that “the president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China.”

The administration thinks it has the advantage due to Beijing’s reliance on exports for economic growth. “China is paying a heavy price” in the trade conflict, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told The Free Press.

Beijing’s not blinking. “If a negotiated solution is truly what the U.S. wants, it should stop threatening and blackmailing China,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said. “To keep asking for a deal while exerting extreme pressure is not the right way to deal with China and simply will not work.”

TRANSLATING EUROPE

— ZELENSKYY: CHINESE WORKERS BUILDING RUSSIAN DRONES: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused a Russian military drone factory of employing workers from China – potentially fueling a war effort without Beijing’s knowledge.

Ukrainian authorities are probing the role of Chinese workers at the site, Zelenskyy told reporters Tuesday per Reuters. Those workers may have provided Russian drone technology without Beijing’s involvement, he said. That accusation follows Ukraine’s capture of Chinese soldiers fighting for Moscow earlier this month. “China firmly opposes groundless accusations and political manipulation,” said Liu at the Chinese embassy in response to Zelenskyy’s comments.

— WANG WOOS LAMMY AGAINST TRUMP TARIFFS: China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi wants the United Kingdom to team up with Beijing to “uphold the post-WWII world order” under threat from Trump’s tariffs. “The U.S. has used tariffs as a weapon to launch indiscriminate attacks on countries, flagrantly violating WTO rules and undermining the legitimate rights and interests of all nations,” Wang said in a phone call Tuesday with U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Chinese state media reported. A U.K. government spokesperson said Lammy’s side of the call focused on the need for “secure and resilient trade and investment with China,” POLITICO’s Dan Bloom writes in. Beijing is also romancing Canada. The Chinese ambassador in Ottawa, Wang Di, wants the two countries to partner in resisting Trump’s “bullying” on trade, CTV News reported Wednesday.

HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE

— BEIJING BASHES WHITE HOUSE COVID SITE: The Chinese government has punched back at the White House’s new website blaming the Covid pandemic on a lab leak in Wuhan. “Rehashing the ‘lab leak’ theory on a relevant website and smearing China with unsubstantiated accusations is just another ploy the U.S. uses for political manipulation under the pretext of COVID origins-tracing,” Guo at the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. The White House replaced a government website that provided information about prevention and testing for the illness with a new site titled, “Lab Leak: The True Origins of Covid-19.”

— CHINA TURNS ‘CEASEFIRE MONITOR’ IN MYANMAR: Beijing is increasing its official involvement in Myanmar’s messy conflicts.

Officials have launched a “ceasefire monitoring” mission in northern Shan State. That reflects China’s efforts to reduce hostilities between Myanmar’s armed forces, the Tatmadaw, and the insurgent group, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, in a region strategically valuable to Beijing. Shan state is a key node in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, an infrastructure development program, and is a region where pipelines carrying oil and gas to China cross the two countries’ border. China is “doing its part in ending the conflict and promoting peace talks to ensure peace and stability along the China-Myanmar border,” Guo said.

That rhetoric deflects what may be Beijing’s “most blatant interference in the internal affairs of another country,” said Brian Harding, former country director for Asian and Pacific security affairs at the Defense Department. That’s significant given that Beijing routinely asserts that it never involves itself in the internal affairs of foreign countries. “China has used extreme coercive tactics to force the MNDAA to hand one of the largest towns in northern Burma back to the Myanmar military — something the military would not have been able to achieve on the battlefield.”

THREE MINUTES WITH…

Gene Wu is a Democratic state representative in Texas trying to kill two pieces of legislation that he says will unfairly discriminate against Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. Wu laid out his concerns to China Watcher about H.B. No. 17 and Senate Bill 17, which will bar citizens of China, Iran, Russia and North Korea from purchasing land in Texas.

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

These bills target citizens of four countries — how are they unfair to Asians?

This is directed at only one thing — China. And that means anyone who has what we call “Asian face.” The House bill imposes pretty severe felony penalties for the real estate agent, for the seller, for the buyer. So what’s going to happen is, if somebody is selling a property and they say, ‘Hey, you sell to Chinese immigrants, you’re going to go to jail,’ that’s what’s going to be passed around.

Why the pessimism?

We’ve done this before. It was called the Japanese-American internment. One hundred twenty thousand-plus Japanese Americans — every single Japanese American in the United States — were rounded up because one drop of blood in their body made them a traitor. Alien land laws were originally passed against Chinese and Japanese people right before World War Two. How do you keep out these people who are potential traitors and saboteurs? You don’t let them buy land, you don’t let them buy a home, And we did it. The scary thing for our community is that we’re now doing it for the exact same reason, using the exact same rhetoric.

How might these bills harm Asian Americans if they become law?

By reducing their freedom and their liberty without a trial, without evidence, without charges, without even an accusation. The idea is that every other person when they come to this country are able to break free from whatever shackles their home country had, and can become fully American, and have independence, liberty and justice. But Asians can’t be trusted to do that — including people who are refugees from Asian countries, Chinese political refugees, people here on political asylum, running from the Chinese government. That’s what’s so offensive.

HEADLINES

The Atlantic: What if China wins the trade war?

China Media Project: Bringing AI down to earth

Alaska Beacon: Alaska’s governor flew to Taiwan to sell LNG. China’s not happy

The Guardian: ‘Why would he take such a risk?’ How a famous Chinese author befriended his censor

ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS

Passion Artist

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

The Book: The Adaptability of the Chinese Communist Party

The Author: Martin K. Dimitrov is a professor of political science at Tulane University

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

There have been predictions about the CCP’s imminent demise for decades. How does it keep going?

It’s not accidental. It reflects the CCP’s willingness to learn lessons from various domestic and world historic events that have brought it close to the point of collapse. In 1989, the CCP came closest to collapsing both because of what was happening domestically with Tiananmen and also with communist parties failing around the world. They identified four for threats to single party rule —economic stagnation, socioeconomic discontent, Western influence and values and political pluralism. And they drew up adaptive measures to counter these core threats.

What’s the CCP’s secret survival skill?

The CCP is constantly vigilant. It’s anxious about what the future might bring. East European communist parties developed a sense of complacency. And complacency is something that the CCP has never had.

When will the CCP eventually lose power?

It probably still has another 14 years. And if the adaptations malfunction, there’s always repression. But I’m very skeptical about the long-term viability of repression and of technologically assisted surveillance mechanisms.

Thanks to: Jessica Meyers, Victoria Guida, Dan Bloom, Emma Cordover and Catherine Bouris.

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