Balance of Power
Pressure on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to launch a military response in Jammu and Kashmir may prove irresistible.
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India has vowed retaliation against Pakistan over a devastating attack on civilians in Jammu and Kashmir.

Regardless of how New Delhi responds, the tragedy has destroyed the sense of confidence that the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi had finally wrangled a solution to its oldest political problem.

Tuesday’s attack, which left 26 dead, resurfaces the central issue that has divided India and its fellow nuclear-armed neighbor since independence in 1947. India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars over the region, and thousands have died in India’s quest to pacify it.

Modi and his lieutenants figured they had finally settled the issue. In 2019, they stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its seven-decade autonomy. In the years following, they ramped up a security and military presence and stamped out dissent. Elections last year went down peaceably — taken as a sign in New Delhi that its tough-love strategy was working.

When the gunmen struck, Modi wasn’t in India, but Saudi Arabia. Adding to the embarrassment, the attack took place while US Vice President JD Vance was on a four-day Indian tour. He offered his condolences in the shadow of the Taj Mahal.

Within hours, Modi raced home, convened a meeting of ministers and downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan.

India has not offered any public evidence of its neighbor’s hand in the killings and Islamabad has denied involvement. If New Delhi doesn’t know who is behind the attack, it has an intelligence failure of the first order on its hands considering the militarization of the region.

Still, India’s vows of retaliation have grown ever louder. In the end, the pressure on Modi to launch a military response may prove irresistible. After the dust settles, the problem of how to bring peace to Jammu and Kashmir will remain. Dan Strumpf

WATCH: A deadly terror attack has reignited tensions between India and Pakistan. Sudhi Ranjan Sen reports on Bloomberg TV.

Global Must Reads

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy cut short a trip to South Africa today after Russia hit Ukraine with a barrage of missiles and drones overnight, killing at least nine people. The attack, one of the worst this year, came after President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure on Kyiv to accept US proposals for a peace deal that critics say will favor Moscow.

Emergency personnel at the site of a Russian missile attack in Kyiv today. Photographer: Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images

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On the new episode of Trumponomics: What are the long-term implications of Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Powell? Host Stephanie Flanders is joined by Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI and head of its Global Policy and Central Bank Strategy Team, and Bloomberg managing editor Kate Davidson. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Chart of the Day

European car sales were up last month for the first time since December, with gains in the UK and robust demand for electric vehicles making up for weaker sales in Germany and France. The 2.8% annual increase offers some relief for the continent’s car industry, which is grappling with weak consumer confidence, slumping Chinese sales and US tariffs.

And Finally

Chinese President Xi Jinping committed the world’s top polluter to more stringent curbs on greenhouse-gas emissions over the next decade in global climate talks that took place without the US. The Asian nation, which accounted for about 30% of total emissions in 2023, will set out new goals for cuts by 2035 “covering the entire scope of the economy, including all greenhouse gases,” Xi said.

TUNE IN TODAY: Just weeks after Trump effectively declared a trade war with the whole world, the initial fallout is taking shape. Has the world been knocked off its American axis? For the latest, Bloomberg’s Tim Stenovec will speak with Saleha Mohsin, Jordan Fabian and Anya Andrianova in a Live Q&A at 11 a.m. EDT.

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