|
 |
Thanks again for your questions, readers. Please keep ‘em coming. And by all means feel free to ask about more than just politics and the news. Movies, books, travel, trivia, whatever. With a few days of lead time, I can even run down answers to questions that stump me. (Oh, and speaking of travel, I’ll be in Lisbon in late May, early June, and would appreciate your recommendations.)
 |
Kathy Davis: Can you explain why GOP reps appear willing to let Trump tank the global economy? This is insane to me
I think it’s principally four things, the last three of which apply in some measure to Trump’s blindsided Wall Street/Silicon Valley/business lobby supporters, too:
Political fear. Most elected Republicans represent uncompetitive districts, which means keeping their sinecures is a simple matter of not getting on the wrong side of Republican primary voters (which is to say, Trump superfans). Even swing-district Republicans don’t feel free to challenge Trump, because Trump has proved willing to unseat frontline Republicans, even if MAGA primary winners in purple states and districts are likely to lose their general elections.
Physical fear. Same thing happened when they knew they should impeach and convict Trump after the January 6 insurrection. Some of them explained themselves by saying, in so many words, “I have kids,” or “I have a family to think of.” They know that opposing Trump frontally is an invitation to harassment, death threats, and perhaps even violence.
Owning the libs. Intervening to stop Trump means partnering with liberals, giving liberals a “scalp,” and effectively admitting that liberals were correct about something. It’s hard to overstate how unwilling most Republicans are to do this—the opinion makers that shape their culture have poisoned most Republicans against liberals and Democrats beyond any reason. They feel deep hatred and contempt for people to their left and would let the world burn rather than team up with the opposition to save it.
They want those tax cuts. They know Trump has fucked up real bad, that they made a bad bet, that he’s cost them more in lost wealth than they’ll recoup in tax cuts. But they still want those tax cuts! And they may be telling themselves that the tax cuts will outlast the downturn. It’s kind of interesting to think ahead to what happens once they pass (or fail to pass) their reconciliation bill, and the money-people feel they don’t need Trump anymore.
Bottom line is we need to make it clear to as much of the population as possible that while Trump started the world’s stupidest trade war, Republicans in Congress could’ve brought it to an end at any time, but have refused to. They’ll be on the ballot again, and well before the next presidential election.
Patt: Somehow, elected republicans need to be scared enough about their re-elections to break with trump. I don't know how they get to that place. Sen. Barry Goldwater and Rep. John Rhodes were the ones who talked Nixon into resigning rather than being impeached. This time there are no Republican heroes.
I don't know how all this will end, but I know that America cannot withstand this stress test for another 3 1/2 years.
Something I’ve been telling my (increasingly concerned) friends who aren’t political junkies is that the status quo of the past 100 days is not sustainable. Something will break one way or another. Either Trump will do so much damage that his administration will end unexpectedly early, or he’ll consolidate power and we’ll live in a dictatorship, or, humiliated, he’ll retreat tactically to a toxic but survivable equilibrium, like the one that marked most of his first term. In the past week or so I think we’ve seen evidence that outcomes one and three are more likely than two. His approval ratings are abysmal and falling. His top campaign donor has, through his alliance with MAGA, all but destroyed his main source of wealth. He’s beset by scandal and failure. He’s backing down on many fronts. Nodes of opposition are joining forces. It’s true that we see no evidence of a GOP rebellion, and that betting on rebellion has been a big loser for almost a decade now. But predictions are hard, especially about the future. Yes, Nixon eventually had to resign, but Republicans held out for two years. They’re much better equipped to weather a partisan storm today, but Trump has never had to survive politically when the public has finally recognized that he’s not some uniquely talented steward of the economy.
Colin Chaudhuri: I have to challenge you on the "debt limit". Just a no no no no on mucking with this. I said this under Obama, I said this under Trump I and I will say this under Trump II; the debt limit should be eliminated full stop. It's a complete anachronism that is the ultimate "chekov's gun" this side of nuclear weapons. Speaking of which, using the debt ceiling as a negotiating tool is not that far off of saying we should have a "WarGames" style nuclear crisis every 6 months as a way to get a few pretty minor concessions. I'm sorry, you don't want to keep playing games with the debt limit when the tail risk involves possible complete economic catastrophe. As much as I "trust" Democrats to never actually push us to the brink, as Congressional GOP gets more and more Trumpy as the few remaining "normal" Republicans get primaried, you really trust these psychos to not actually "hit the red button?" Even the normal ones are clearly having their brains fried by Fox News in Newsmax in to believing insane stuff about vaccines and trade (Seriously look at polling). You think these people really understand why going into default by accident would be a catastrophe?
My view for years and years, from 2011 through Donald Trump’s first presidency, was that Democrats should not hold the debt limit hostage, turnabout style, seeking partisan ransoms from Republican presidents, but that they should condition their votes on abolishing the debt limit (or raising it to Graham’s number or some such). The idea was: There can’t be two sets of rules, but at the same time the single rule can’t be that both parties extort each other when out of power, with the global economy hanging in the balance.
So: free the hostage permanently. And if that’s where we end up in a couple months, I’d have to make my peace with it.
But circumstances are different now:
Republicans have unlocked the reconciliation process. They can increase the debt limit on their own, no filibuster. If they can’t, then they’ll have to ask Democrats for help, and Democrats will be well positioned to make germane demands.