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It’s not surprising that propaganda, disinformation and general vitriol would surge immediately preceding an outbreak of political violence, whether war or internal strife. Much of this heated and deceptive chatter takes place on social media these days, and political scientists frequently look to social media data for their research on conflict.

But the tools for studying online content are largely limited to analyzing text, while much of the content is visual. Some days it feels like spreading visual memes is what social media was invented for.

Notre Dame researchers Tim Weninger and Ernesto Verdeja and colleagues used a combination of AI image analysis and human subject matter experts to crack the code on politically charged visual content. In a case study of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the researchers documented a huge spike in anti-Ukraine visual memes and fakes in the days and hours leading up to the invasion.

The researchers note that in addition to making a rich source of data more accessible to social and political scientists, their method could serve as an early warning system for the risk of large-scale violence. Sadly, researchers looking to advance this work will have a harder time finding funding. The National Science Foundation announced on April 18 that it was canceling grants for research in the field of misinformation and disinformation.

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Eric Smalley

Science + Technology Editor

AI tools reveal how images have been manipulated. William Theisen et al.

Memes and conflict: Study shows surge of imagery and fakes can precede international and political violence

Tim Weninger, University of Notre Dame; Ernesto Verdeja, University of Notre Dame

Visual content, including manipulated images, is a staple of propaganda and political messaging. AI analysis shows that a surge of these memes can precede the outbreak of wide-scale violence.

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  • Alaska, rich in petroleum, faces an energy shortage

    Brett Watson, University of Alaska Anchorage

    Alaska produces a lot of crude oil, but many of the state’s utilities, businesses and homes run on natural gas, which is in dwindling supply near population centers.

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