| Last year, the US presidential election turned crypto-based prediction markets platform Polymarket into a real-time polling source (with astonishing accuracy). This year, some traders are using memecoins to bet on world events instead. Early on Easter Monday, the Vatican announced that Pope Francis had died at the age of 88. Following his funeral on April 26, the Roman Catholic Church’s most senior ranks will gather to select Francis’ successor through a process known as a papal conclave. A shortlist of potential candidates for the papacy has already emerged, highlighting the cardinals who are favored to replace Francis. It didn’t take long for crypto to catch on. A memecoin tied to Cardinal Pietro Parolin — a frontrunner for the papacy with a 28% chance on Polymarket — spiked more than 2,000% within minutes of Pope Francis’ death being announced in Vatican City. Another tracking Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle jumped similarly, as did a coin for Cardinal Peter Turkson. All these coins are worth just fractions of a cent. Memecoins are a kind of cryptocurrency that can be created in minutes, typically based on social momentum and using platforms like Pump.fun to gain notoriety. Because of their low price, the extreme volatility gives traders the chance to win big — or lose badly. Tokens for Parolin and Tagle had given up a sizeable chunk of those initial gains by Thursday, though they’re still trading in the green. Buying cryptocurrencies based on who’ll be the next pope while the previous pontiff lies in state could be considered bad taste, which would be nothing new for prediction markets. Polymarket’s own users sparred over the morality of their previous papal-related bets when Francis was hospitalized in February. Polymarket’s success around the US election has meant that it’s now cited regularly as a data source for public sentiment. The usefulness of memecoins — in that vein, or any vein really — remains limited by contrast. Memecoins are a no less notorious lightning rod for controversy. Pump.fun last year launched a livestreaming feature that quickly devolved into a case study of the risks of promoting unmoderated user-generated content. Pump.fun suspended the feature and later revived it with stricter rules.
The combination of US regulators easing off crypto enforcement and the industry’s appeal to people skilled in the art of attracting attention means memecoins about the next pope are only the beginning. | 
