| When President Donald Trump entered office, he called himself a global “peacemaker and unifier.” Is the peace and unity in the room with us? Because three months later, Hal Brands says (free read) “his presidency is consumed by conflict.” In one such conflict, the war in Ukraine, Trump has reached a stage of desperation I don’t think this country — or the world, for that matter — has ever seen: Is the foreign policy equivalent of “Piper, noooo” part of his genius plan to end the war? If so, it’s embarrassing. Trump claims Russia’s strikes Thursday were “very bad timing.” But, just curious, what do we think good timing is in his book? Last time I checked, there’s never a good time to end lives. And begging a depraved foreign leader to cool his jets — pretty please — so that everyone can gather ‘round the campfire to make s’mores in a social media post is not a winning strategy. Unless the president counts memes as victory: To actually end the war, there needs to be a genuine effort to create peace in the longer term. But Marc Champion says the US-sponsored deal that’s been swirling around diplomatic circles leaves a lot to be desired. Here’s the long and the short of it: What Russia Gets - The comfort of knowing that Ukraine will never join NATO
- A guarantee that the US will recognize Crimea as Russia’s territory
- Control over most of the Ukrainian lands seized by Putin’s armies
- Lifted economic sanctions by the US
What the US Gets - Ukraine’s mineral resources
- The ability to dictate major infrastructure projects
- Money (50% of the revenue from both things listed above)
- The keys to Ukraine’s massive Enerhodar nuclear plant
What Ukraine Gets - Minor territorial swaps
- Permission to access its own rivers
Hmmm. Curious, isn’t it, how Russia and the US get four bullet points and Ukraine only gets two? Doesn’t seem fair to me. Even so, “the issue here isn’t that these are all conditions Ukraine can’t accept,” Marc writes. “Zelenskiy and other officials in Kyiv understand this war will end with its de facto acceptance of Russian control over swathes of Ukrainian territory. Most European leaders also understand Ukraine won’t be joining NATO. And a deal committing the US to involvement in growing Ukraine’s postwar mining industries and infrastructure would be great, if that also included a commitment to invest.” The problem, in Marc’s eyes, is that this deal is not built to last. They’re spoon-feeding Putin all these core concessions, and for what? A ceasefire that could very well implode in 90 days? For the deal “to enable the building of a better Ukraine, and not just a stronger Russia,” he says it must include defined security guarantees and give Ukraine the right to use military force. “The way Trump and his envoys have approached a peace settlement in Ukraine seems inexplicable, until one understands that the priority isn’t lasting peace and sovereignty for Kyiv, or stable borders in Europe, but a reset of US-Russia relations.” “Vladimir, STOP!” is an odd way to hit the reset button, but what do I know. Read the whole thing free. Bonus Diplomacy Reading: With the US resembling Russia and China as an imperialist bully, more countries should emulate Vietnam. — Andreas Kluth Pop quiz time! What was the one and only stock in the S&P 500 that rose between the market peak in 2007 and the low in 2009? To give you a bit of time to make a guess, here’s a random yet adorable image of cats hugging each other that you’ll need to scroll past to see the answer: If you guessed Walmart, you’d be correct. During periods of financial turmoil, John Authers says shoppers look for low prices, and that’s Walmart’s entire schtick. “When it is beating the overall market, it’s a clear sign that investors don’t think much of the economy,” he writes. Judging by Walmart’s recent performance, things are getting ugly. Its stock just hit an all-time high relative to the market, and the company is ramping up discounts to drum up even more demand. When Walmart does well, everyone else — especially Big Tech — does poorly: But even before Trump’s “Liberation Day” sent analyst projections in the garbage can, Dave Lee says tech’s outlook was cloudy because of AI. “While the companies can’t offer clarity on tariffs, investors will want firmer direction on the more practical business of breaking ground on new data centers to accommodate the growth of artificial intelligence,” he writes. | 
