Eastern Europe Edition
Hi, this is Natalia Ojewska in Warsaw. Welcome to our weekly newsletter on what’s shaping economics and investments from the Baltic Sea to t
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Hi, this is Natalia Ojewska in Warsaw. Welcome to our weekly newsletter on what’s shaping economics and investments from the Baltic Sea to the Balkans. You can subscribe here.

Arming an Industry

The big dilemma in Europe’s recent push to increase its defense capabilities has been how to balance purchases of military hardware with investment in the factories to make the weaponry in the first place.

Take Poland. The country is NATO’s highest spender relative to the size of its economy, but the large sums of money being thrown around to rearm have done little to fix its ailing defense industry at home.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has increased military spending to 4.7% of GDP from 2.4%. That money should have given its own manufacturing capacity a boost, and with it the economy. But much of the spending has instead gone to foreign contractors.

The Polish industry is dominated by PGZ, a 50-company conglomerate producing a wide range of materiel. Because of a lack of skilled workers and flawed deadlines, it’s struggled to scale up despite government projects to turn it into a global player. The goal to churn out 150,000 shells annually has been pushed back by three years to 2028.

Poland isn’t alone in an overreliance on imports. Greece, for example, consistently exceeded NATO’s expenditure target when richer countries didn’t, even at the peak of its sovereign debt crisis. It maintained a strong armed forces, though didn’t develop much of its own production.

That said, there have been some successes. Poland ordered howitzers from one of PGZ’s companies while privately owned WB Electronics, the largest supplier of military drones, expects to sign a final deal later this year with Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace that will allow it to manufacture rockets in Poland.

Buying more equipment from the US also might be no bad thing at the moment. Warsaw is hoping that business for American companies will mean the Trump administration might be more amenable to keeping close security ties.

A Polish soldier in an AERO 4x4 light air-dropped military vehicle during the Armed Forces Day military parade in Warsaw. Photographer: Damian Lemański/Bloomberg

Around the Region

Ukraine: The US will demand that Russia accept Ukraine’s right to have its own army and defense industry as part of a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Romania: The country will wait for the outcome of its presidential election and new measures curbing the European Union’s largest budget deficit before it returns to international markets to borrow more euros or dollars. 

Hungary: Fertilizer tycoon Laszlo Bige ruled out using tangible assets as collateral in a standoff with creditors over extending a looming maturity date for his company’s bonds.

Estonia: The Baltic nation plans to build a military base in the city of Narva, the latest move to bolster security along its sensitive border with Russia.

Poland: Just as Elon Musk started his quest to boost US government efficiency, Poland turned to a local billionaire who revolutionized European logistics to lead his country’s deregulation drive. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk called on state-run companies to promote domestic economic interests instead of maximizing their profits as the era of “naive globalization is over.” 

Chart of the Week

CEZ, the region’s biggest electricity producer listed on the stock exchange, is close to selling a nuclear project to the Czech government, people with knowledge of the matter said. Speculation about the plan to divest the majority stake has been a key driver of the company’s share price in recent months. 

By the Numbers

  • Ukraine and a group of creditors failed to agree on the restructuring terms for $3.2 billion worth of debt linked to economic growth.
  • Poland’s presidential race is tightening before next month’s election. Warsaw Mayor  Rafal Trzaskowski slipped to 33.5% while  Karol Nawrocki, the candidate for the opposition Law & Justice party, jumped to 25.5%, according to a poll released last week.
  • Slovakia halted the procurement of coronavirus vaccines slated for this year and next. Prime Minister Robert Fico’s administration voted on Wednesday to pause the purchase of about 300,000 doses pending a report by local scientists.

Things to Watch

Final Thought

Donald Trump’s eldest son is getting to know Eastern Europe rather well. He’s embarking on his second trip to the region since his father returned to office, and third since September, according to people familiar with the plans. Donald Trump Jr. has been busy trying to expand his family’s business ties, while leaders in Hungary and Serbia particularly are looking to leverage their close relationship with the US president. Indeed, the Trumps are keen to bond with like-minded groups in the region, as well as businesspeople. Trump Jr. is expected to meet politicians on his tour, mostly from the far right.

Donald Trump Jr. and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade, in a photo released on March 11. Source: President of the Republic of Serbia

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