Good morning and welcome back from the long weekend, it’s Ainsley here with all the news you need to kick-off your working week.

Today’s must-reads:
• Labor holds lead in election race
• Global Trump backlash helps Albanese
• ASX reviews rules after James Hardie deal

What's happening now

The Labor government is on track to win Saturday’s national election, according to polling released just hours before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was declared the winner of the fourth and final leaders’ debate last night. Labor is ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition opposition by 52% to 48%, according to a Newspoll survey published in The Australian.

Center-left governments in Canada and Australia that appeared destined to lose office at the start of 2025 are seeing their electoral fortunes revived as Donald Trump’s America First policies spur a backlash. As Trump has become increasingly unpopular in Australia, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s approval ratings and his party’s support have dropped. These days, Dutton is less upbeat about Trump and has ditched policy proposals such as forcing government workers back into the office after criticism he was borrowing from Trump’s agenda.

The Australian Stock Exchange will review requirements for shareholder approvals in mergers and acquisitions, following James Hardie’s A$14 billion deal in March to take over AZEK. ASX said the review comes after a number of approaches and inquiries over its decision to allow James Hardie to proceed with the acquisition of home-decking provider AZEK without seeking shareholder approval.

Banks holding part of hospital operator Healthscope’s A$1.6 billion loan are sounding out traders for potential secondary sales in anticipation of the end of a lock-up period, according to people familiar with the matter. 

What happened overnight

Here’s what my colleague market strategist Mike “Willo” Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

US stocks and dollar edged higher on Friday as traders grew optimistic that the Trump administration is making efforts to deescalate trade tensions. Australia’s first quarter CPI on Wednesday is expected to show further cooling, enough for an RBA rate cut in May. For New Zealand, a speech by Finance Minister Nicola Willis and ANZ business and activity data are the highlights. The Aussie and Kiwi had a quiet finish to last week, matched by a quiet start to this one.

Voter discontent with Trump’s economic stewardship is sinking his popularity as he approaches the symbolic 100-day mark of his second term, ratcheting up pressure on congressional Republicans to pass his tax plan. Trump suggested Sunday that his sweeping tariffs would help him reduce income taxes for people making less than $200,000 a year. Read more about the 100 dizzying days of Trump.

Eleven people were killed in Vancouver and dozens were injured after a driver plowed into a large crowd at a street festival on Saturday evening. The suspect, a lone 30-year-old Vancouver man, was arrested at the scene. Police said they are confident the incident wasn’t an act of terrorism and there’s no ongoing danger to the public.

In 2025, a new atomic arms race is stirring, this time not provoked by Russia, China or North Korea — who have been ramping up their arsenals — but instead by Trump’s trade war, and his threats to withdraw the US defense umbrella. The result is a world growing more dangerous, not just for Asia, but for Americans too.

What to watch

• Nothing major scheduled

One more thing...

Asian economies geared for exports and facing some of the highest US “reciprocal” tariffs are leading the way over their western counterparts in trade negotiations with the Trump administration. Past experience suggests comprehensive trade deals take many months if not years to complete — time that countries including South Korea, Japan and India don’t have, given their shipments to the US face levies rising to near 25% in just over two months. Vietnam’s is pegged at 46% and Thailand’s at 36%.