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Morning Briefing: Asia
Bloomberg Morning Briefing Asia
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Good morning. Trade talks gather pace as Donald Trump’s tariff deadline nears. Oil traders are catching their breath. And these robots are really bad at soccer. Listen to the day’s top stories.

Japan and India extended their trade negotiators’ stays in Washington, raising hope of progress toward separate tariff deals with the US ahead of Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline—a date the president said he doesn’t expect to push back. Tokyo’s point person, Ryosei Akazawa, spoke to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick twice on Saturday. With just 10 days to go, the White House appears poised to fall short of its promised sweeping reforms.

Stock investors are vibing as trade talks progress and Middle East tensions abate, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at record highs. But threats remain: The Bank for International Settlements warned US inflation may resurge due to Trump’s tariff policies, and money managers see a range of risks threatening the rally in the second half.

Indian stocks are less of a vibe. Their haven allure is dissipating as trade tensions ease, sapping traders’ incentive to own some of the world’s most expensive shares. The MSCI India Index is now underperforming its Asia Pacific counterpart, partly reflecting slowing earnings growth, high valuations and improving sentiment toward Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares.

Also seeking a spark: Australian startups. They’re far behind the US and China in funding raised despite the country’s historical effectiveness at creating unicorns, privately held companies valued at over $1 billion. The country is experiencing a funding winter, with fundraising down by almost half from a peak of $6.5 billion in 2021 to $3.4 billion in 2024.

Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax-cut bill passed one key hurdle but faces a new round of debate, with Senate lawmakers set to squabble over the scope of Medicaid reductions and the pace of renewable-energy credit phaseouts. Tesla’s Elon Musk slammed the legislation, saying cuts to EV credits would be “incredibly destructive.” North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he won’t seek re-election next year after drawing the president’s ire for voting against advancing the tax bill.

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Listen to the Stock Movers Report, five minutes on the day's stock market winners and losers

Deep Dive: Oil Market Mayhem

Oil traders are regaining their footing after a 12-day roller-coaster ride that saw prices surge and tumble in the most manic period since Russia invaded Ukraine.

  • When US jets bombed Iran, traders focused on the reality of whether crude would keep flowing from the major Middle Eastern producer. When it did, early price spikes quickly turned into routs.
  • Money instead poured into the options space, where traders can take out insurance against a spike at a cheaper cost than trading futures (buying contracts now for physical delivery at a later date).
  • The action signals a psychological shift in a market long haunted by memories of cataclysmic price moves driven by Middle Eastern conflict in the 1970s and 1980s. For today’s oil traders, headlines about bombs falling have increasingly become an opportunity to sell.
More on Oil
What If Iran Tries to Close the Strait of Hormuz?
Oil Could Hit $60 by End of Year: Goldman's Oppenheimer

The Big Take

Electronic Warfare Crashes Global Shipping’s Navigation Systems
The Iran-Israel war highlighted a critical flaw in the satellite-based systems that makes the industry hauling 80% of global trade vulnerable to mass-jamming.

Opinion


The Dalai Lama’s coming succession plan may deny China an opportunity to install a puppet leader, writes Karishma Vaswani. Beijing seeks an heir that will answer to the Chinese Communist Party, but the Tibetan spiritual leader’s potential rebirth abroad—or ending of the line altogether—may weaken its hand.

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Before You Go

Photographer: Zhang Xiangyi/China News Service/VCG/VCGPIX

Humanoid robots played a soccer match in Beijing on Saturday, but the results were more Messy than Messi as they knocked around like tipsy 7-year-olds. The exhibition was held to demonstrate balance, agility and AI-powered decision-making ahead of the 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games in August, which will feature 11 sporting events.

A Couple More
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