Daily News Brief

June 30, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering Russian air attacks across Ukraine, as well as...

• How Canada dropped a new tax amid trade negotiations
• The IAEA’s take on Iran’s nuclear resources
• The dissolution of a Hong Kong pro-democracy party

Top of the Agenda

Russia launched its largest air attack of the war this weekend, Ukraine’s air force said. Moscow has stepped up its attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks as part of a summer offensive. As Kyiv worked to repel the 537 aerial weapons, a Ukrainian F-16 pilot was killed, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He wrote on social media that despite global efforts to facilitate peace, Russian President Vladimir Putin had “decided he would keep waging war.”

The details. 

• Ukraine reported that most of the weapons were shot down or lost, potentially due to electronic jamming. At least four people were killed in the strikes, officials said.
• Ukraine is using fighter jets for air defense in part because of lagging supplies. Washington supplied air defense missiles during the Joe Biden administration but has been slow to do so since Donald Trump returned to office.
• Ukraine’s defense minister said Friday that Russia’s goal was “to exhaust our air defense.” The Pentagon in recent weeks told Congress and Zelenskyy that it would divert U.S. anti-drone technology previously earmarked for Ukraine to the Middle East. But after meeting with Zelenskyy last week at the NATO Summit, Trump said he would consider Ukraine’s request for more Patriot missiles.

Off the battlefield.

• Zelenskyy said yesterday that he signed a decree to pull Ukraine out of the international Ottawa Treaty banning landmines, citing Russia’s use of the weapons. Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have also recently exited the treaty or announced plans to do so. 
• Russia’s intelligence chief held a call with the CIA director and the two agreed to discuss interests “at any time,” he said Sunday.
• On Friday, Putin said that each side’s position on a peace deal shared at talks on June 2 were “absolutely contradictory.”

“To halt Putin today, the West needs to do what it has done to blunt Russian expansion in the past. It should build a countervailing force, as it opens a dialogue on coexistence. That is not an impossible task. The West has the resources. It only needs a strategy to put them to effective use.”

—CFR expert Thomas Graham in a Ukraine Policy Brief

Assessing the Effect of the U.S. Strikes on Iran

Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images

As the dust settles over the American missile and bomb craters in Iran, questions are already swirling about the success of the U.S. operation and the ripple effect it could have on the region and beyond, CFR President Michael Froman writes in The World This Week.

Canada’s tax backtrack. Canada scrapped a digital services tax that was due to take effect today after Trump’s opposition to the measure led him to cut short bilateral trade talks on Friday. The tax would have imposed a 3 percent levy on certain revenues earned by companies including Amazon, Google, and Meta. The Canadian government said yesterday that both sides now aim to reach a “trade arrangement” by July 21.

Damage assessment in Iran. Iran could begin producing enriched uranium “in a matter of months” despite recent U.S. strikes inflicting a “very serious level of damage,” the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said in an interview that aired yesterday. Washington has sought to resume nuclear talks with Tehran following the attacks; Iran’s deputy foreign minister said that would require the United States to rule out additional strikes. 

Birthright citizenship case. The Supreme Court limited lower courts’ ability to block executive branch policies nationwide in a 6–3 ruling on Friday. Although the case related to legal challenges to Trump’s executive order limiting birthright citizenship, the court did not rule on the order’s constitutional merit. The decision could allow his order to take effect in the twenty-eight states that did not challenge it.

Hong Kong party disbands. The League of Social Democrats (LSD) announced yesterday that it will disband “in the face of immense political pressure.” It was the last pro-democracy party to stage street protests in the city after Beijing tightened security oversight in 2020. Many LSD members were arrested the following year.

Chinese military shakeup. Senior Navy Admiral Miao Hua was dismissed from a small commission that oversees the Chinese military, Beijing announced Friday. It said he was being investigated for “serious violations of discipline,” denoting he was caught up in an anti-corruption drive. Miao is one of the most senior officials to be purged from the oversight body in decades.

Museveni’s ambitions in Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni said on Saturday that he plans to seek a seventh term. He has ruled for around forty years. Opposition leader Bobi Wine plans to challenge Museveni again in next January’s election. Wine alleged fraud when official results showed he lost the country’s 2021 vote.

Protests in Serbia. Around 140,000 people attended an anti-government demonstration in Belgrade on Saturday, the BBC reported. It was the largest protest in months and part of a string of demonstrations against Aleksandar Vučić’s government that kicked off last November. Police arrested dozens of people. Serbia is a candidate for European Union (EU) membership, but the Vučić administration has kept close ties to Moscow and has not joined Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Aid cuts in Sudan. The delivery of hundreds of thousands of already purchased doses of a high-calorie food supplement meant to stave off malnutrition in Sudan was delayed following the Trump administration’s foreign aid cuts, the supplement’s manufacturer told the Washington Post. The World Health Organization estimates that around five million people in Sudan could lose access to lifesaving services due to the cutbacks. The State Department said that it was “continuing lifesaving programs.”

What Is Birthright Citizenship?

Nathan Howard/Reuters

The Trump administration’s efforts to nullify birthright citizenship for millions of U.S.-born children could overturn a nearly 160-year legal precedent, CFR’s Diana Roy writes in this article.

• Today, the International Conference on Financing for Development begins in Seville.
• Today, China’s foreign minister begins a visit to Europe.
• Tomorrow, Denmark assumes the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.
• Tomorrow, Vietnam launches a new administrative model that reduces the number of provinces in the country.

A Return to Spheres of Influence

The Trump administration has signaled openness to a new grand strategy that would divide the world into spheres of influence—but history shows the costs of such an approach, the Quincy Institute’s Sarang Shidore says on this episode of The President’s Inbox.

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