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India is caught in the geopolitical competition between the US and China
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In raising pressure on Russia, Donald Trump risks collateral damage to a key US partner, India.

The US president’s so-called secondary tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow ends hostilities with Ukraine within 50 days would undoubtedly hurt China, a principal consumer. But as the No. 1 market by some measures, India would also be badly hit.

NATO chief Mark Rutte urged India among others to “make the phone call to Vladimir Putin” and get the Russian president to the negotiating table, warning the threat of penalties was real.

WATCH: Trump announces plans for “secondary tariffs”on Russian imports.

True, the White House’s tariff vows are increasingly seen as negotiating tactics rather than set in stone, and oil markets have largely brushed off Trump’s latest threats. Indian officials say they aren’t too worried, and see China as the main US target. New Delhi’s closer ties with Washington should help to insulate it, they say.

Yet the spat still underscores how India increasingly finds itself caught in the middle of geopolitical competition.

While New Delhi has welcomed US backing in standing up to China — a shared rival — it’s wary of getting drawn too far into Washington’s orbit given its heavy reliance on Chinese imports.

India is at the same time engaging in its own fence-mending. Top envoy Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited China this week for a major regional forum, where he urged Beijing to avoid “restrictive trade measures and roadblocks.”

India’s unwillingness to align too closely with either power puts it in a difficult position as it negotiates what it hopes will be a favorable trade deal with Washington.

India is banking on an agreement that allows it to dodge punitive levies and burnish its role as the region’s manufacturing alternative to China.

Getting there depends on navigating the complex push and pull of Washington, Moscow and Beijing.  Dan Strumpf

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024.  Photographer: Maxim Shipenkov/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Trump suggested he may impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals at the end of this month and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well, indicating they may hit alongside broad “reciprocal” rates set for Aug. 1. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, meanwhile, warned that Trump’s trade war is the wrong approach to addressing imbalances in the global economy and will harm households.

Russia launched a massive drone attack over Ukraine’s central regions overnight, including on President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, as US special envoy Keith Kellogg continues his week-long visit to Kyiv. Trump’s plan for the European Union to pay for US arms supplied to Ukraine is piling pressure on EU officials negotiating how to finance the bloc’s defense-spending ambitions.

Firefighters at the site of a Russian attack in the Vinnitsia region, Ukraine. Source: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

Israel carried out air attacks in Syria and Lebanon in the past day, once again increasing tensions with its neighbors. The army struck tanks and military vehicles advancing toward southern Syria’s Suwayda province, while it also conducted “numerous strikes” targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

Trump’s tariffs on Brazil, partly to pressure authorities to drop charges against Jair Bolsonaro, have thrust the nation’s conservatives into chaos as they seek to find an answer to the upheaval the levies will cause. The former president — who is banned from running in next year’s election and faces trial for an attempted coup — simultaneously tried to paint himself as the only hope to talk Trump down from the duties, while urging that the right “cannot be divided.”

French Prime Minister François Bayrou proposed scrapping two national holidays, part of a drastic effort to pare back the largest budget deficit in the euro area that’s likely to unleash a parliamentary backlash. Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he’s confident the budget will be approved and is open to improving it through discussions with opposition parties.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te intends to make two stops in the US as part of a trip to the democratic island’s diplomatic allies, testing ties between Beijing and Washington just as they prepare for a possible leaders’ summit.

Turkey’s most popular opposition politician, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, was set to appear in court today for allegedly threatening the city’s top prosecutor in a case that could end his career.

The rift within the US Republican Party over the release of documents related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein continued to widen.

Extreme heat in Spain was 10 times deadlier over the past two months than during the same period last year, with an estimated 1,180 people dying due to heat waves from mid-May to mid-July.

Today’s Live Q&A: Trump’s threatened to hit Russia with stiff economic penalties if it doesn’t end hostilities with Ukraine within 50 days. Will it work? Bloomberg journalists answer your questions in a live conversation at 9am EDT. Tune in here.

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Chart of the Day

Japanese Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi is pushing to lower rice prices, sparking frustration among farmers who feel he’s putting consumers’ interests over theirs. The son of a former premier, Koizumi is the face of a risky political bet by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: With inflation eating into household budgets and approval ratings sinking, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is counting on Koizumi’s reformist drive — and his famous surname — to win back frustrated urban voters in an election for the upper house on Sunday.

And Finally

India’s seaside metropolis of Mumbai is undergoing a major revamp to transform into a regional financial capital that can potentially compete with Hong Kong or Tokyo. It’s part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid to create what he calls “several Singapores” in the country. To the north, in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, the government is building GIFT City, its version of a special economic zone. And industrial parks are sprouting up across tech hubs, including in Hyderabad, where Google is constructing its largest campus outside the US.

The Mahim pipeline, which carries water into Mumbai. Photographer: Abeer Khan/Bloomberg

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