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This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, White House reporter Josh Wingrov
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This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, White House reporter Josh Wingrove looks at President Trump’s latest escalation against the Fed chief. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here.

Firing Line

Donald Trump can’t get Jerome Powell off his mind.

The president and his allies have ratcheted pressure on the Federal Reserve chair to new levels of intensity this week — whipsawing markets with a barrage of attacks and allegations, including what looked like the most credible threat so far to Powell’s job.

It began to take shape late Tuesday when Trump held court with GOP lawmakers and polled them on whether he should fire Powell — a kind of third rail that he’s repeatedly wandered toward, always stopping short.

Lawmakers expressed support, and today Trump was said to be preparing to follow through — even though his authority to do so is questionable. Then he appeared to take a step back, telling reporters it was “highly unlikely” Powell would be axed – “unless he has to leave for fraud.”

That’s the new front that team Trump has opened in their long campaign against the Fed chief, who’s guilty in their eyes of keeping interest rates too high. Now they’re attacking him over the central bank’s building renovation, arguing it’s too opulent and way over-budget.

Trump suggested Wednesday this could amount to grounds for removal. Allies like Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte have relentlessly pushed Powell to quit over the issue. The Fed chief has called reports about the renovations inaccurate, and asked the bank’s inspector-general to review the project.

Trump speaks at the White House on Wednesday Photographer: Aaron Schwartz/CNP

“The entire purpose of the renovation `scandal’,” writes Tobin Marcus at Wolfe Research, “is to create a predicate to fire Powell if Trump wants to.”

The president — who today wondered aloud how Powell got the job in the first place (Trump appointed him) — certainly sounds like he wants to. But it’s less clear if he will.

Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics suggests Trump might have been floating a trial balloon to see how markets reacted. She concludes the dollar’s rapid drop was big enough to deter him. (Terminal readers can see her analysis  here).

Meantime — since Powell’s term ends in May even if he escapes Trump’s axe — the horserace to succeed him is heating up. Kevin Hassett, director of Trump’s National Economic Council, is the early frontrunner ahead of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, my colleagues Nancy Cook and Catarina Saraiva report.

The question isn't if Trump will get a new Fed chair, but when. The answer shifts by the hour.

Don’t Miss

President Donald Trump has dialed down his confrontational tone with China in an effort to secure a summit with Xi Jinping and a trade deal with the world’s second-largest economy.

Trump said he’ll send letters to more than 150 countries notifying them of tariff rates, as he pushes ahead with a trade agenda that has sent US partners racing to avoid higher import taxes.

House Republican leaders struggled to resolve an impasse with GOP hardliners on crypto legislation backed by Trump, holding open a key procedural vote as talks dragged on.

Trump  lashed out at Republicans calling for his administration to release documents about disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, casting the files as a distraction spun up by Democrats.

Trump signed legislation that strengthens criminal penalties for fentanyl, in his latest effort to address the public health crisis spurred by the deadly drug.

US industrial production rose in June for the first time in four months, boosted by a jump in utility output and a modest gain in manufacturing.

Wholesale inflation moderated last month as a sharp decline in the costs of travel-related services blunted a pickup in goods prices.

Public broadcasting and foreign aid programs are on track to lose federal funding after the Senate voted to advance a $9.4 billion package of cuts, with Vice President JD Vance breaking a tie.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said regulation must evolve with the financial system, issuing a warning as Trump-era officials look to shift to a lighter touch.

US economic activity “increased slightly” between late May and early July, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.

Israel bombed Syrian military headquarters and moved troops to the border area, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for de-escalation. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health and human services secretary, replaced his chief of staff after six months in the role, in a shakeup at the top US health agency.

Watch & Listen

Today on Bloomberg Television’s Balance of Power early edition at 1 p.m., hosts Kailey Leinz and Michael Shepard interviewed Missouri Republican Jason Smith, chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, about Trump’s campaign against Powell and the future of cryptocurrency regulation. 

On the program at 5 p.m., Tyler Kendall and Kailey talk with Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren. 

On the Odd Lots podcast, Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal talk to former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Rohit Chopra about prospects for the agency under Trump, and how regulators can keep up with rapid developments in financial technology. Listen on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Chart of the Day

The environment for US manufacturers has improved markedly over the last six months, according to a key Federal Reserve gauge. The diffusion index of industrial production — which measures how broad-based changes are over the period — is up 20.9 percentage points in May compared with November, with 65% of firms reporting growth. That's the largest share since 2021 when firms boosted output as the pandemic eased. The figures suggest that despite all the uncertainty over tariffs, American firms are seeing improved conditions. Overall industrial production rose by 0.3% in June, and the ISM manufacturing export orders index for the month posted major gains, suggesting factories are being helped by a rebound in external demand. — Alex Tanzi.

What’s Next

Retail sales in June will be reported tomorrow.

June’s import price index also is set for release tomorrow.

Housing starts and building permits for June are out on Friday.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in July will be released Friday.

Sales of existing homes during June will be reported July 23.

New home sales in June will be reported July 24.

Durable goods orders for June will be released July 25.

Seen Elsewhere

A series of Supreme Court orders giving a green light to Trump’s agenda have been issued without the usual explanation of the court’s rationale, according to the New York Times.

Potential Democratic candidates for next year’s gubernatorial election in California are waiting for a decision from former Vice President Kamala Harris on whether she’ll run, the LA Times reports.

Advances in artificial intelligence are opening the door to autonomous farms, where tractors, drones and harvesters are guided by AI with only minimal human tending, the Wall Street Journal reports

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