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The US Treasury is considering making a bet on the future of interest rates, potentially breaking a long tradition of market neutrality in the hopes of reducing America’s large and rising debt-service costs.

It’s a risky proposition that could end up costing taxpayers dearly.

The US most definitely has a debt problem. In January, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that chronic federal deficits would add almost $22 trillion to America’s sovereign obligations over the next decade, pushing net interest payments to 4.1% of gross domestic product in 2035, from 3.2% in 2025. Since then, the outlook has worsened: Interest rates are higher than what the CBO assumed, and the Big Beautiful Budget Bill is expected to increase the 10-year deficit further, by more than $3 trillion.

The obvious solution: Spend less, increase tax revenue or both.

Unfortunately, that isn’t happening. So the Trump administration is searching for other solutions. Even congressional legislation on stablecoins might play a role by requiring dollar-denominated digital tokens to be fully backed by Treasury securities — potentially creating an added source of demand for short-term US government debt.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has advocated a different approach: shifting issuance of government debt toward short-term bills. 

Read the whole thing.

Epstein Conspiracies Split Trump, Musk and the MAGAsphere — Timothy L. O’Brien

US Tariffs at 30%? C’mon, Europe ... Do Something — Lionel Laurent

Goldman’s Big Hedge Fund Bet Was Perfectly Timed — Paul J. Davies

Bomb Moscow? Trump Surely Couldn’t Be That Reckless — Marc Champion

America’s Anti-Immigrant Fever Is Starting to Break — Patricia Lopez

Copper Tariffs Won’t Bring Back US Manufacturing — Matthew Yglesias

Putin Finally Got Under Trump’s Skin — Andreas Kluth

Mexico Is Facing a Second — and Worse — ‘China Shock’ — Shannon O’Neil

Meta’s Days of Giving Away AI for Free Are Numbered — Parmy Olson

• How did Buldak ramen become an $8 billion company? It’s a spicy story. Shuli Ren explains the company’s meteoric rise.
• Nick Adams, the man nominated to be the US ambassador to Malaysia, has a strange past — and not a lot of foreign policy experience, says Karishma Vaswani.
• Bad Bunny’s sold-out, three-month residency in Puerto Rico is placing the island on center stage — and giving it a chance to finally tell its own story, says Susanne Ramirez de Arellano.

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