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Daily News Brief

July 22, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering Russia and Ukraine’s preparations for peace talks this week, as well as...

  • Twenty-eight countries calling to end the war in Gaza
  • A dissent letter from NASA employees 
  • China’s rising rare earth exports
 
 

Top of the Agenda

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that new talks with Russia will begin tomorrow in Turkey—even as both countries continue cross-border drone attacks. A Kremlin spokesperson said today that there was no reason to expect “miracles.” Previous talks in May and June produced prisoner swaps but no truce. Since then, the United States has stepped up its threats against Russia and pledges to Ukraine. 

 

On the battlefield. Russia’s drone attacks have increasingly overwhelmed Ukraine’s air defenses in recent months.

  • On average, about 15 percent of Russia’s drones penetrated Ukraine’s defense system between April and June, according to the Financial Times. That’s triple the rate between January and March and the highest since the war began in February 2022.  
  • Russia has increasingly relied on Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Russia makes on its own soil. 
  • Ukraine, too, continues to use drones to target Russia. Over the weekend, Russia reported shooting down the highest daily number of drones from Ukraine since June 6, and four Russian airports introduced flight restrictions.
  • As it seeks more foreign military aid, Ukraine has worked to refine its domestically made air defense systems and has invited international weapons companies to test their arms on its front line.

 

Zooming out.

  • Ukraine’s defense minister said today that negotiations with NATO and European Union (EU) countries regarding military support were ongoing and that Kyiv needs at least $120 billion in defense funding for next year.
  • Kyiv’s domestic political shake-up has continued in recent days. After the prime minister was swapped last week, Ukraine’s state security service carried out raids yesterday on the country’s anti-corruption bureau. It has accused some members of spying for Russia. 
  • Upcoming peace talks—the first in seven weeks—come after U.S. President Donald Trump last week threatened Russia and its trading partners with financial penalties if no deal to end the conflict is reached within fifty days.
 
 

“The bottom line here is that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will stop only when he is stopped. And that means giving Ukraine what it needs to shut down Russia’s military advance.”

—CFR expert Charles A. Kupchan

 

The National Security Costs of Trump’s Tariffs

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) meets with China's Premier Li Keqiang on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Singapore November 15, 2018. (Alexei Druzhinin/Reuters)

Leah Millis/Reuters

Looking at the national security ledger, the costs of Trump’s tariffs are starting to become clearer than the benefits, especially for the U.S. defense industry, critical infrastructure, and relations with partners and allies, CFR expert Jonathan E. Hillman writes for RealEcon.

 
 

Across the Globe

Joint call to end Gaza war. The foreign ministers of twenty-eight countries including Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom said in a joint statement yesterday that the war in Gaza “must end now.” They condemned Israel’s killings of civilians and Hamas continuing to hold hostages, as well as voiced opposition to “territorial or demographic change in the Occupied Palestinian Territories,” saying a recently announced Israeli settlement plan would be a “flagrant breach of international law.” Israel and the U.S. ambassador to Israel rejected the statement.

 

China’s rare-earth sales. China’s exports of rare-earth permanent magnets to the United States increased 660 percent between May and June following an agreement with Washington to lower trade restrictions. The magnet shortages had hit global industries such as cars and humanoid robotics. The June amount is around half the monthly level from one year earlier, however.

 

Call for Fed review. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped up criticism of the Federal Reserve yesterday, calling on social media for an internal review of its non-monetary policy operations. He accused the Fed of “mission creep” and said there needed to be more oversight of actions such as the bank’s building renovation. President Trump last week said fraud could be possible grounds for ousting the Fed chair and suggested there could be fraud related to the building renovation; the Fed posted details of its renovation plans to its website yesterday.

 

Plane crash in Bangladesh. The country’s military is investigating how a training aircraft crashed into a school campus yesterday afternoon on the outskirts of the capital, Dhaka. The incident killed thirty-one people and sent dozens to the hospital. An initial military statement cited a mechanical error. The plane was a Chinese-built fighter jet. 

 

AI enters math Olympics. Artificial intelligence (AI) programs from Google and OpenAI achieved gold medal-level performance in the International Math Olympiad that ended Sunday—results that the companies hailed as proof their systems can rival human intelligence. Around 11 percent of the high school students who participated in the contest received gold medal scores. While AI models have performed well in the contest in the past, this year was distinct because the models did not require that the problems be translated into code before solving them.  

 

Mozambique hydroelectric dam. The World Bank will provide loans, risk guarantees, and insurance to support Mozambique’s plan to build Southern Africa’s biggest hydropower plant in fifty years, bank President Ajay Banga said. Together with other private and multilateral financiers, the project may receive more than $100 billion. It is part of a plan to facilitate electrical connections for three hundred million people in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030; more than 80 percent of the world’s people without electricity live in the region.

 

NASA dissent letter. More than 280 current and former NASA employees signed a letter saying that ongoing and planned changes at the agency—including programming cuts and reorganizations—undermine human safety and U.S. national security. The letter follows recent dissent memos regarding the National Institutes of Health and the Environmental Protection Agency. The NASA press secretary said in a statement that any cuts would preserve “safety-critical roles” and that the agency was shifting its focus from “lower-priority missions.” 


IMF leadership shift. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath announced she will depart for academia in August, more than one year earlier than customary for her position. The U.S. government typically nominates people for the post. While the Trump administration did not immediately announce a nominee to replace Gopinath, it has signaled it seeks changes at the bank that include stepping back from climate-related goals.

 
 

The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals

Geopolitics of critical minerals

Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters

China’s decadeslong investment in the global supply chain of critical minerals and rare earths has yielded significant leverage in the sector. Experts David S. Abraham, Gracelin Baskaran, Helaina Matza, and Laura Taylor-Kale discussed the role of such minerals in an evolving geopolitical environment at this CFR meeting.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas begins an Asia tour in Japan.
  • Today, the World Trade Organization begins a general council meeting in Geneva.
  • Tomorrow, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a visit to the United Kingdom.
  • Tomorrow, leaders from Japan and the EU hold a summit in Tokyo.
 
 

Japan’s Political Landscape After the LDP Loss

Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's Prime Minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), listens to a question from a journalist at the LDP headquarters, on the day of Upper House election

Franck Robichon/Pool via Reuters

Japanese voters dealt the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) a blow on Sunday that makes governing near impossible. At the same time, Japan must cope with monumental shifts in the regional military balance and threats to the global international order, CFR expert Sheila A. Smith writes for Asia Unbound.

 
 

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