In the context of a continuing bull market, double-digit corrections are not unusual, with the largest drawdown reaching 30% since this cycle began in January 2023.

July 25, 2025
 

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What to know:

 

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 3% in the past 24 hours and is currently some 7% below its June 14 all-time high.

This raises the question of how much further it might drop. In the context of a continuing bull market, double-digit corrections are not unusual, with the largest drawdown reaching 30% since this cycle began in January 2023.

 

One technical factor to keep an eye on is the CME Bitcoin Futures gap between $114,355 and $115,670. These gaps typically occur when price movement happens outside of the CME's trading hours, generally over weekends, and they often get filled later as the price revisits those levels.

 

In other news, Strategy (MSTR) reportedly quadrupled the size of its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred stock sale. Analyst Brian Brookshire notes the offering includes 28 million STRC shares. At $90 a pop, that totals over $2.5 billion and potential demand for some 21,500 BTC given a price of $115,000.

 

Meantime, demand already seems to be outstripping supply, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. Since early this month, more than 210,000 BTC has been sold by long-term holders (those who've owned their BTC for longer than 155 days) and about 250,000 BTC bought by short-term holders, the data shows.

 

With the month-end just a week away, bitcoin is about 8% higher than at the start. That's in line with its historical trend. On average, the largest cryptocurrency has returned about 7% in July since 2013.

 

Ether (ETH), for its part, has surged over 46% and is currently trading near $3,725. This is the third time it's topped 40% since November. Interestingly, in all the other months, it fell.

 

August is typically quieter, which often results in lower market liquidity. Stay alert!

 

Overnight Flows

 

A message from Grayscale

Grayscale’s New Income-Focused ETFs

 

Grayscale, the world’s largest crypto-native asset manager, now offers two new income-focused ETFs:

 

  • Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (BTCC) seeks to maximize potential income generation, and is designed to serve as a complement to existing Bitcoin ownership.
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BPI) seeks to balance upside participation with income generation, and is designed to serve as an alternative to direct Bitcoin ownership.

 

Through two different approaches to systematic covered call writing on Bitcoin, these two products deliver an alternative income stream for investors that’s less correlated to traditional income-oriented investments.

 

BTCC and BPI both offer monthly distributions for investors.* See the latest distribution amount on their respective product pages at etfs.grayscale.com

 

Important Disclosures

*The Funds intend to pay out dividends from net investment income, if any, and distribute any net unrealized capital gains to their shareholders at least annually.

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Funds, please call (866)-775-0313 or visit our websites at etfs.grayscale.com/btcc and etfs.grayscale.com/bpi. Read the prospectuses or summary prospectuses carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee the investment strategy will be successful. The Fund is considered to be non-diversified. The Fund is actively managed and its performance reflects the investment decisions that the Adviser makes for the Fund.

 

Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (“BTCC”) and Grayscale premium Income ETF ("BPI") (collectively, the "Funds") will not invest in digital assets directly. The Funds also will not invest in initial coin offerings. The Funds will, however, have indirect exposure to digital assets by virtue of its investments in derivatives on exchange-traded vehicles that hold digital assets as investments. Because the Funds will not invest directly in any digital assets, they may not track price movements of any digital assets.

BTCC and BPI are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC and Grayscale Advisors, LLC is the adviser. Foreside is not related to GSA or its affiliates.

 

What to Watch

Crypto

  • July 28: Starknet (STRK), an Ethereum layer-2 validity rollup (zk-rollup), launches v0.14.0 on mainnet.
  • July 31, 12 p.m.: A live webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship founder Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s potential as the next global reserve currency amid de-dollarization trends. Registration link.
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now running on Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting annual new token issuance to 7.5 million HNT.
  • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing regime to regulate stablecoin activities in the city.
  • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.

Macro

  • July 25, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases June manufactured durable goods orders data.
    • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. -10.8% vs. Prev. 16.4%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. 15.5%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • July 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases June unemployment rate data.
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trading partners that failed to reach agreements by the July 9 deadline. These increased duties could range from 10% to as high as 70%, impacting a wide range of goods.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.30
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS), pre-market
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00
 

Token Events

Governance Votes & Calls

  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a proposal to sell its treasury of around 16 million GHST for around 3.2 million USDC to VC firm Rongming Investment , dissolve the DAO and distribute funds to active members. The VC firm aims to scale Aavegotchi globally while Pixelcraft retains IP ownership. Voting ends July 25.
  • Lido DAO is voting on a new system that lets validator exits be triggered automatically through the execution layer, not just by node operators. It includes tools for different authorization pathways, emergency controls, and built‑in limits to prevent misuse. The update is expected to make staking more decentralized, more secure and more responsive. Voting ends July 28.
  • GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to provide $30 million a year, paid quarterly, to Gnosis Ltd., now a non-profit, to sustain its 150‑person team building critical Gnosis Chain infrastructure, products (like Gnosis Pay and Circles), business development and operations. Voting ends July 28.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on funding three new features for the official decentralized application: a Wearable Lendings UI, Gotchis Batch Lending and a BRS Optimizer. Voting ends July 29.
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approval the proposal for it to pass, and if so it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • July 25: MEXC, Ethena and TON to host an X Spaces session on “Stablecoin for You & Me.”
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: Ether.fi to host a bi-quarterly analyst call.

Unlocks

  • July 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $28.77 million.
  • July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $22.08 million.
  • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $162.78 million.
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $22.29 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $13.38 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $53.27 million.

Token Launches

  • July 25: 5ireChain (5IRE), Aperture Finance (APTR), Ertha (ERTHA), Gummy (GUMMY), Pip (PIP), and Teleport System Token (TST) to be delisted from Bybit.
 

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited.

  • July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
  • July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
  • Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
  • Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
  • Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
  • Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
  • Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

Join us for this curated gathering that unites D.C.’s most important public officials with legal, policy and compliance leaders from the private sector to advance crypto standards and reform.

Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through August 31.

Token Talk