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By Laura Sanicola

Buying gas stocks these days might give you a bad case of heartburn, but there is one exception: Gulfport Energy.

This post-bankruptcy turnaround has been buying back its own shares, and is one of the few compelling natural-gas companies in today’s volatile market. Operational hiccups this year pushed Gulfport shares down more than 7%, but analysts see a 30% upside to this ultra-cheap stock if high demand boosts domestic natural gas prices through next year.

Gulfport collapsed in 2020 under more than $2 billion in debt after gas prices tanked during the coronavirus pandemic. It emerged from bankruptcy in 2021 with a cleaner balance sheet, new leadership, and a focus on efficiency. Since then, it has kept production relatively flat, lowered drilling costs by 35%, and doubled down on shareholder returns.

The result has been a lean, cash-generative gas driller that owns acreage in its home state of Oklahoma and in eastern Ohio with shares trading around $166. The company is increasingly focused on Ohio’s Utica basin, a less-trafficked but resource-rich region where it sees years of lean gas inventory keeping prices firm.

So far, its strategy is working. Increased gas sales should drive per-share growth of more than 60% to $25.18 this year and to $31.12 in 2026, according to Factset estimates. Gulfport returned $125 million to shareholders in the first half this year and last week announced it will increase its share repurchase authorization by 50% to $1.5 billion.  The company also said it would use free cash flow to scoop up bolt-on acreage near its Ohio wells.

This region may be one of the key reasons the stock is undervalued. Prices received for gas in Appalachia are typically at a discount to Henry Hub to account for increased cost of transportation out of the basin.

But some investors think Gulfport’s gas reserves are being undervalued as more sources of power demand are being built within the basin.

One institutional investor told Energy Insider that based on how the stock is currently priced, the market is assuming Gulfport’s future gas sells for around $3.41. That’s well below the $4.22 price investors are assuming for peers like EQT, Range Resources, Antero, and others

“If you plug in our peer implied number into our Gulfport model, it's over 50% upside just to close that gap,” the investor said. 

Until gas powerhouse EOG bought Encino Partners’ Utica acreage earlier this year, there was little visibility into the profitability of Utica gas. Drilling in the Haynesville region of East Texas and Western Louisiana attracted more attention from gas producers because it is closer to the Gulf Coast, where gas is priced at a premium to be exported overseas as liquified natural gas (LNG).

But Gulfport’s Utica gas wells are proving highly profitable. Its dry gas locations are modeled to generate internal rates of return above 100% within a year at $3.75/Mcf gas and $65 oil. Its wet gas and condensate wells aren’t far behind, in the 70-90% range over the same 12-month period. At current Henry Hub prices of about $3.12, those returns are lower, but if prices move toward $3.75, Gulfport could effectively double its money in less than a year on its best dry gas wells.

Geography also works in its favor. Utica wells break even when gas trades $2.50/mmbtu or less. That is often more than $1/mmbtu lower than breakevens at wells in Haynesville, according to the investor's analysis.

Post bankruptcy, Gulfport’s balance sheet is in good shape. The company will end 2025 with just $241 million in net debt, less than 1x Ebitda, according to Factset estimates. Management told investors on its second-quarter earnings call last week that it gives the company flexibility to handle preferred equity redemptions or step up buybacks without liquidity concerns.

It still has full access to its credit revolver, and CEO John Reinhart emphasized the company’s ability to “toggle” between capital return and small acquisitions based on market conditions.

The company could buy back 50% of its float over the next five years using just 75% of free cash flow, even at conservative pricing assumptions, according to Gabriele Sorbara at Siebert Williams Shank, who gave a Buy rating on the stock with a $272 price target.

There is a tradeoff. Gulfport averages just about 50,000 shares traded per day, and the float is shrinking as management keeps buying stock, something they see as a “feature, not a bug.” But the illiquidity is a real barrier for institutional investors, and analysts say it contributes to Gulfport’s valuation discount.

“It’s still kind of a tougher name for people to own,” Sorbara said. “You can go buy EQT or Range Resources and get exposure with better float and visibility.”

Only 15% of Gulfport’s total gas production is locked in to be shipped to the premium Gulf Coast market. It also doesn’t have the scale to anchor big data center deals like gas powerhouse EQT does. While it may eventually participate in offtake deals through an intermediary or in aggregation, it’s not going to lead the parade.

The data center benefit may be overstated anyway. EQT recently became the exclusive natural gas supplier for a 4.4-gigawatt data center and power project located in Homer City, Pa.

But the deal was struck at regular, in-basin pricing, disappointing investors that hoped for a higher-priced premium for the company's gas within these emerging deals, particularly given the growing demand for energy from data centers and AI infrastructure.

Still, all this demand should cause natural gas prices to average 4.41/mmbtu in 2026, a 20% increase from this year’s expected average, according to U.S. government estimates.

New lower corporate tax rates and policy changes in President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” are also helpful to companies like Gulfport by allowing them to immediately deduct capital costs. Gulfport anticipates total capital expenditures between $370 million and $395 million this year, lower than its pre-bankruptcy average. The combination of less capex and lower taxes on the spending it is doing helps explain why Gulfport’s free cash flow yields look so attractive, even if gas prices stay between $3-4 mmbtu.

Against this backdrop, its valuation is hard to ignore against nearby producers. Gulfport trades at 6.8x this year’s earnings for 2025 and just 5.5x 2026 earnings, compared with 8.1x and 7.9x for Range Resources, and 12.4x and 12.2x for Antero. On an EV/Ebitda basis, Gulfport’s 3.6x multiple for 2026 is meaningfully below Range (5.3x) and Antero (5.7x).

It’s not the kind of stock that will headline an AI-and-energy fund but rising tides of gas should lift all boats, including Gulfports’.

The One Big Beautiful Bill was not the end of the pain for U.S. solar equipment importers. I break down the latest developments with Colt Shaw, senior editor for U.S. solar markets at OPIS, here.

Earnings ↔ Power producers, midstream oil companies and gassy shale names wrapped up earnings season, all angling to capture more investor attention with how they’re levered to growing electricity demand by data centers. But with these stocks near full valuation, most didn’t deliver enough new project details or surprises to generate much attention, especially as many brought capex spend forward.

Constellation Energy beat on earnings and revenue, but trading was muted given the stock’s 37% year-to-date run. The company reported EPS of $1.91 and reaffirmed full-year guidance, but the midpoint of that guidance came in below Wall Street’s implied target. Without more high profile long-term contracts such as its Three Mile Island deal with Microsoft, upside may be capped.

Talen Energy slightly missed on second-quarter Ebitda due to a reactor outage but investors are laser-focused on its September investor day.The company is expected to unveil 2026–2028 targets and highlight long-term growth tied to AI demand in the PJM grid region. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $410 from $372, calling Talen’s portfolio uniquely positioned for the next phase of load growth. Vistra's second-quarter net income beat consensus, and JPMorgan noted that Vistra’s forward positioning in Texas and PJM puts it in strong negotiating territory as hyperscaler interest grows. The company told investors it expects to ink major long-term power sales by year-end, specifically referencing interest in its Comanche Peak nuclear plant.

On the midstream side, pipeline giant Energy Transfer reaffirmed its $5 billion 2025 growth capex guidance but laid the groundwork for even higher spending in 2026, particularly in natural gas infrastructure. The company advanced multiple projects in Texas and the Permian and said gas will likely account for more than half of future growth capex. But ET’s opaque backlog limits visibility into forward returns, especially compared to peers, analysts noted.

Its peer Williams raised Ebitda guidance and accelerated the timeline for its largest gas pipeline project. The company still has a backlog of likely  projects tied to data center and power demand, which could provide uplift in the future. But the stock traded flat, with analysts pointing to a lack of new announcements beyond what was already expected. TD Cowen noted the near-term valuation looks full.

Flashy gas pipeline Targa beat on headline Ebitda and repurchased more stock than expected, but given its valuation already embeds a fair amount of optimism, shares traded flat. Managements’ tone was similar to peers, highlighting more capex and projects advancing, but confirmed few new projects.

Gassy shale producers fared better than their oil-heavy peers in the second quarter, helped by rising domestic demand and stronger natural gas realizations. But the collapse in Brent crude prices—down over 20% year over year—pressured oil-weighted names, forcing some to cut capex or temper growth plans.

Devon Energy posted a slight miss but announced two new gas-supply deals as early evidence of its pivot toward demand-linked gas growth. Oil production rose 15%, gas volumes jumped 22%. Devon lowered 2025 capex by $100M while lifting its full-year oil production guidance, suggesting its portfolio optimization efforts are gaining traction.

Coterra beat expectations in adjusted earnings and posted a 17% year-on-year increase in production, with natural gas prices more than offsetting lower crude prices. The company also disclosed a new seven-year gas supply agreement to a proposed Texas power plan, part of a broader trend of E&Ps tapping into electricity-driven gas demand. Citi bumped 2025 volume guidance and said the new well design in the Marcellus showed encouraging productivity.

Permian oil producer Diamondback missed the Street’s earnings expectations and cut the top end of its capex range by $200M, citing continued volatility in the shale patch. Despite nearly doubling production after its Endeavor acquisition, the company dropped four rigs and said there’s “no compelling reason” to ramp activity further this year given lower oil prices.

Oil ↓ Geopolitical tension and rising trade barriers weighed heavily on oil prices last week, which posted their steepest decline since late June even as inventories around the world remain low. The selloff was triggered by President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50% in response to the country’s continued purchases of Russian crude. Indian state-owned refiners have already begun pulling back, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that China could face similar penalties, injecting fresh uncertainty into the demand outlook.

At the same time, the market began to tentatively price in a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Trump ally Mike Pompeo said he would meet with Vladimir Putin even if the Russian leader hasn’t agreed to sit down with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy. That statement—paired with the Friday deadline Pompeo had floated for a truce—has sparked speculation that an end to the war could be on the table. Any meaningful de-escalation would increase the likelihood of more Russian barrels returning to global markets.

Yet supply is still tight as OPEC+, which raised quotas, continues to underdeliver. Saudi Arabia is shouldering nearly all the increase, while other members are constrained either by lack of capacity or production caps tied to previous overproduction. Shipping data shows actual exports from OPEC regions are only half of pledged output. Inventories in China and OECD countries are still low, but the market is looking past near-term tightness and pricing in downside risks of slower demand from trade conflict, and a possible ceasefire that could release supply.

ETFs impacted: SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP); Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) 

LNG ↑ U.S. LNG exporters are continuing to lock in contracts, moving toward final approvals, and attracting long-term global buyers in their bid to be the dominant exporter for decades to come.

With more export terminals coming online, U.S. LNG shipments are up meaningfully year to date. By 2030, roughly half of all new LNG capacity under construction globally will come from the U.S, according to JP Morgan.

Just last week U.S.-based Commonwealth LNG chose Technip Energies to build its Louisiana export terminal, which should break ground this year and start shipping gas by 2029. The project would be the first in the U.S. to link upstream shale gas directly to an LNG terminal. That vertical model is drawing interest from global buyers like Saudi Aramco, who are looking to lock in flexible long-term supply.

Cheniere, the largest U.S. exporter, also advanced its expansion plans—it is building out new capacity, signed a long-term deal with Japan’s JERA, and began pre-filing for an even larger future project. While its second-quarter results were mixed, analysts focused on Cheniere’s positioning into the 2030s as the anchor of U.S. LNG growth.

Global demand signals are strengthening. JPMorgan revised its 2025 LNG forecast higher, citing faster-than-expected import growth from countries like Egypt and Jordan, which are rapidly expanding their regasification capacity. While China’s demand was soft earlier this year, analysts expect a rebound in the second half.

Stocks impacted: Cheniere (LNG), Technip Energies (THNPY)

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