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On Thursday this column quoted NFIB economist William Dunkelberg describing “anemic” hiring and that certainly applies to today’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there is at least one bright spot in the BLS report, specifically in the data from its establishment survey: Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.) The needed downsizing of our heavily indebted government may have just begun. Scott Kupor, director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, helpfully reminds that “we have increased government spending by about 55% over the past six years” and reports on something that he
and his Trump administration colleagues are doing about it: As of the beginning of this year, there were approximately 2.4 million civilian employees in the federal government. Based on the current plans submitted by the various agencies, we estimate we will end the year at about 2.1 million employees, a reduction of 12.5%. Of those reductions, roughly 80% are coming from voluntarily resignation, the vast majority from the Deferred Resignation Plan (DRP) (a program that offered eligible employees eight months of paid leave in connection with their voluntary
separation). It’s nice to hear that most departures are voluntary. What might be persuading people to seek opportunities elsewhere?
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