Plus: Recession Fears Are Back After Dismal Jobs Report |
Economic figures last week made several economists, analysts and people in business start wondering again if a recession is in the near future. Fears of a drastic economic pullback flared in the early days of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, but consumer spending, inflation and jobs stayed strong. That initial strength is starting to give way. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that August’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3%—above analysts’ expectations—with just 22,000 nonfarm jobs added, well below the projected 80,000. And private payroll processing firm ADP showed that private sector employment increased by just 54,000 jobs last month, nearly half of the 106,000 jobs added in July. There are now more unemployed workers in the U.S. than job openings. Job growth has been trending downward for the last four months, with new revisions to June data actually showing that the U.S. lost 13,000 jobs. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said in a statement that the momentum of job growth at the beginning of the year “has been whipsawed by uncertainty.” The slowdown could be attributed to many things: Rising business costs due to new tariffs, labor shortages, fearful consumers and AI replacing jobs. The only potential bright spot for the economy is that the Federal Reserve is more likely to lower interest rates at its meeting next week. According to CME FedWatch, 100% of interest rate traders expect a cut—90.1% are thinking it will be a quarter point cut, while 9.9% are banking on a half point slash. An interest rate cut could be helpful to businesses, but it isn’t necessarily the economic surety needed to drive success going forward. Pervasive unemployment, new tariffs and cautious consumers still add up to a precarious environment. Last week, PwC released its holiday spending outlook, and found that consumers expect to cut back on spending this year for the first time since 2020, writes Forbes senior contributor Joan Verdon. A large majority—84%— expect to reduce overall spending in the next six months. And that means more uncertainty for both businesses and consumers into 2026. One of the important facets of leadership is confidence, which is an attribute that Lovesac founder Shawn Nelson used to propel his business from making beanbag chairs in his parents’ basement to a leading manufacturer of sectional sofas. I talked to Nelson about how a confident attitude helps grow a business. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.
Until next time. |
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In today’s CEO newsletter: |
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Artificial intelligence company Anthropic will pay $1.5 billion to settle a lawsuit from authors and publishers who accused the company of using their writings to train its AI model without permission or compensation. This is the largest ever copyright case settlement ever in the U.S., but experts say that a loss at trial could have been far more costly to Anthropic. The settlement pays around $3,000 for each of the about 500,000 books in the case. Through the settlement, Anthropic admits no wrongdoing, and the company is protected from future litigation involving these works. This is just one AI copyright settlement involving one group of creators, so it’s not a solution to the issue. After all, media publishers, musicians, photographers, artists, programmers, as well as other writers, are working through similar lawsuits with other AI providers that they say have illegally used their content for LLM training without permission or compensation. But Anthropic’s settlement signals a broad—and pricey—recognition that copyrighted content is worth paying for. While settlements don’t create binding legal precedents, other AI providers could follow Anthropic’s example and settle litigation, as well as negotiate terms for future content licensing and use. After all, ownership and licensing of content used to train LLMs is one of the issues at the base of the AI industry. It makes sense to figure this out before moving into areas like AGI. |
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Under President Donald Trump’s strict immigration policy in his second term, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have raided some workplaces, as well as places where some undocumented immigrants look for work, like home improvement store parking lots. Last week, ICE had its biggest workplace raid yet, with agents arresting nearly 500 people at the site of a EV battery factory in Ellabell, Georgia, which is jointly owned and operated by South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solutions. The majority of those arrested are South Korean nationals. The factory is still under construction, and Homeland Security told CNN that all of the people it took into custody were illegally in the U.S. Some had entered the country illegally, some had visas that did not allow them to work, and some had overstayed their visas. According to the New York Times, the majority of them were subcontractors employed by neither Hyundai or LG. Forty-seven LG employees were detained, but none worked directly for Hyundai. Not many details about the individuals who were detained were available, but attorneys for some of them told CNN their clients had proper visas and had only recently entered the country. Authorities in Seoul said on Monday that the detained South Koreans would return to their home country “voluntarily,” and South Korea will charter a plane for them to leave the U.S. on Wednesday. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun plans to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio to talk about expanding the number of skilled worker and investor visas for the Asian country. When the factory was announced in 2022, it was a more than $5.5 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing from the South Korean companies, and was expected to create more than 8,000 new jobs. Construction is now halted. |
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In unsurprising—but still big—business news, food CPG Kraft Heinz announced last week that it was breaking into two companies. The behemoth company—parent of an array of brands including Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, Heinz Ketchup, Maxwell House coffee, Philadelphia Cream Cheese and Oscar Mayer Hot Dogs—came together in a megamerger facilitated by Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital in 2015. The company announced that it plans to break into two segments—Global Taste Elevation Co., featuring flavorings and shelf-stable products, and North American Grocery Co., centered on North American staples, including refrigerated meats and cheeses. Rumors of the move have been reported on for months, and the company expects the split to be complete in the second half of 2026. “The complexity of our current structure makes it challenging to allocate capital effectively, prioritize initiatives and drive scale in our most promising areas,” Executive Chair of the Board and former CEO Miguel Patricio said in a release. This same story has been told throughout the business space—especially in CPG—for the last several years. Many mammoth companies have found continued growth to be a challenge in today’s economy, and have split to better concentrate on different segments. But Kraft Heinz faced near-consistent challenges through its decade as a huge conglomerate. Forbes senior contributor Jim Osman writes the company had a couple big issues to deal with. Under 3G Capital, the company switched to zero-based budgeting—requiring every dollar of income go to a specific expense—which made it difficult for the company to do much innovation. The other issue was one of trends. As people started eating healthier and less processed food, the maker of processed meat and Jell-O found it difficult to quickly adapt. |
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 | Lovesac founder and CEO Shawn Nelson. Lovesac |
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| | How Confidence Helped Lovesac Become A Success |
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To grow from entrepreneur to industry leader, you need a great product, but you also need to be able to lead with confidence. Shawn Nelson started furniture company Lovesac by making oversized beanbag chairs in his parents’ basement. It’s now a leader in couches and sectionals, with more than 260 retail showrooms across the U.S. I talked to Nelson about how his confidence helped propel the company from its humble beginnings. This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity. Where do you think confidence sits in the collection of qualifications that somebody should have for business leadership? Nelson: I think that effective leadership is a lot like a mixing board, if you imagine a recording studio with a mixing board, and you analogate that to human characteristics and strength. I think we have all witnessed successful leaders who are more introverted, more extroverted, more engaged at the micro level, more engaged at the strategic level. Confidence is absolutely a fundamental core slider on that mixing board. It’s actually a bank of sliders that are connected to confidence. As an example, we can project confidence in our mission, in our purpose. We can feel or have or project confidence in ourselves and our own personal ability. We can feel or have or project confidence in our team and those around us. There are probably, if you really dissected it, multiple layers to that attribute. Confidence is a core fundamental necessity for an effective leader, but it can manifest very differently amongst different personalities or in different scenarios. Lovesac was a startup—a business category made up of lots of really great ideas that don’t make it, and some, like yours, that do. What does a leader need to be able to get their great idea from startup to established company? Many people on Earth have the desire to be an entrepreneur in some way, shape, or form. It’s because people fundamentally are creators. Humans can literally create life. Humans are driven toward innovation. We are attracted to facilitating innovation. Otherwise, we’d still be living in caves and not doing much with fire, which fundamentally was an innovation. What does it take? It takes a hundred things. It takes a thousand things. And attributes, confidence underpin many of those things. One of the hardest things that I experienced building Lovesac was raising money: persuading other human beings to part with their resources to take a risk on you. Being able to multiply it is not just a function of a good idea, a competitive product or a competitive solution. That’s a huge part of it, but a bigger part of it is you, the individual, asking. Being an investor myself, when I’m looking at a startup, of course I’m evaluating the idea, the market fit, the momentum, all these things. But even more so, I’m evaluating that captain, because I know through my own experience that that individual is most likely going to need to go through this process multiple times in order to get it to where it really pays off. It’s not just a question of: Should I invest in this thing? It’s a question of: Can this person not only develop a product idea, technology, whatever, but develop a team to scale it, attract the team, retain the team, and simultaneously—like a unicycle or spinning plates on sticks—raise the next round of funding necessary to take it to the next level that I may or may not even choose to or have the chance to participate in. That’s a lot to ask from any individual: These fundamental attributes like confidence, ability, intelligence, career charisma, leadership connections, networking, your personal networking resource, resourcefulness, problem-solving. I could go on and on and on. What’s required is so multifaceted and interdisciplinary that that’s ultimately what makes it so difficult and somewhat rare. What can leaders who aren’t working for challenger brands that need to prove themselves learn from your story? No. 1, be wary of wealth extraction. Wealth extraction is not often talked about, but a very fundamental force that can be productive and radically deleterious to an organization’s ultimate and continued success. But if it overextends its place, it will lead a company to its demise. We see this over and over again in private equity-owned situations in the pursuit of higher profits, therefore higher multiples, therefore bigger outcomes. You have a lot of good things happening in the sense that an organization’s getting lean and profitable, but in the longer arc of things will usually lead to a company’s hollowing out demise. So there are short-term gains for long-term costs. The root of success is self-awareness. So in the case of an organization, whether it’s the leader, the leadership team or the organization, being aware of wealth extraction and its healthy or unhealthy manifestations within the organization, both of which are real. Another one is the leader or leadership team finding ways to always be challenging: A, B, C. If you are a leader in a category, like Lovesac, it is a classic principle to lean into and promote into strength. We will not take our eye off the ball of developing more ancillary products in that realm, shoring up our own position, continuing to challenge ourselves on our advertising communications, all these things. At the same time, lest we become complacent and eaten by other challengers, we must fail into new water, chasing new wind in our challenger sail. Truly dynamic leaders who have more driving them besides wealth extraction will naturally seek out challenge, because that’s their personality. And so it does come back to personality to some degree. If we’re talking about bold product stuff with a culture that actually sustains, you need to be sailing into new waters to chase new wind. And that is scary, that is risky. To some degree, it’s wealth extraction playbook because of the fundamental risk involved. That’s why big organizations, to some degree, become so risk averse: They are being incentivized to be risk averse by those who don’t want to see their piles of wealth put at risk. You’ve got to always be challenging, or you will die. It may not be a complete death, but you will be unseated. I would rather unseat myself than be unseated. |
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Industrial manufacturer The Timken Company appointed Lucian Boldea as its new president and chief executive officer, effective September 1. Boldea joins the company from Honeywell, where he was president and CEO of industrial automation, and he will succeed Richard G. Kyle.
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IT provider Zones selected Yehia Maaty Omar to be its new chief executive officer, effective September 1. Omar was previously president of Megalos Consulting and had served on the board for Zones. He will succeed Firoz Lalji, who will continue to serve as the chairman of the board.
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Temperature-controlled logistics firm Americold promoted Robert S. Chambers to its chief executive officer role, effective September 1. Chambers previously worked as president of Americold, and succeeds George Chappelle, who is retiring.
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Send us C-suite transition news at forbescsuite@forbes.com. |
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As CEO, you’ve got ideas, and you may even be putting them into effect with the support of the rest of the C-suite and the board. However, you need to remember to pay attention to what customers are saying and be ready to pivot—as last month’s controversy over the Cracker Barrel logo showed. A recent survey from MIT showed that just 5% of AI projects show tangible success. Part of that high failure rate might be because efforts are siloed and not a team effort. Here’s why engagement from top leaders pays off in AI initiatives. |
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| The Tesla board has proposed a new compensation structure for CEO Elon Musk. How much could his compensation be worth if he meets several specific goals? | A. | $75 million | B. | $900 million | C. | $300 billion | D. | $1 trillion |
| Check if you got it right here. |
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