Astros enter big week before homestand with major ramifications

ARLINGTON — A cross-up ensnared a pitcher in controversy. A confiscated bat created more.

A right-hander returned to the Houston Astros' rotation after missing 28 months to a rocky recovery from Tommy John surgery. Another was lost for the rest of the regular season, at least, due to an elbow issue.

Last week was one of the Astros’ most eventful all season. Their lead in a taut division race, meanwhile … stayed about the same.

The Astros started last Monday with a 2-game lead on the Mariners in the American League West. They arrived in Toronto before an off day Monday with a 2 ½-game edge in what remains a three-team race.

The Rangers, who took two of three from Houston over the weekend, lurk in the division and wild-card races. Texas entered Monday four games back of the Astros and 1 ½-games out of an AL wild-card spot.

Houston will host the Rangers and Mariners for three games each on its final homestand of the season, lending a level of significance to its upcoming week.

Series in Toronto and Atlanta precede that homestand. How the Astros fare the rest of this 10-day road trip could shape whether they return home with a lead to protect.

Seattle will host the Cardinals, on the fringe of the NL wild-card race, and the Angels, whose playoff hopes are all but dashed, this week. Texas will play the Brewers, owners of baseball’s best record, and the Mets, who are in the NL wild-card picture.

Entering Monday, FanGraphs gave the Astros a 64.8% chance to win the division, with the Mariners at 32.4% and the Rangers at 2.8%. Only Houston still has series against both other clubs, providing it the clearest path to control its fate.

A few factors that could play into determining it: 

• An inconsistent offense: Somewhat quietly, Jake Meyers returned from the IL on Saturday, rendering the Astros’ lineup as close to whole as it will get down the stretch (barring Isaac Paredes’ return). Houston scored 11 runs Saturday yet still entered Sunday ranked 26th in the majors in runs since the trade deadline and then mustered two in a series-ending loss to the Rangers. Said manager Joe Espada after that 4-2 defeat: “The bottom line is, we just need to have better at-bats.” October aspirations could hinge on a lineup Houston fortified at the deadline actually producing them. 
• An embattled co-ace: Framber Valdez was mired in a difficult month before his start against the Yankees, which got more attention for a pitch that was not hit (more on that later) than his six runs allowed. With a rotation relying heavily on starters returning from injuries, the Astros require stability from Valdez and Hunter Brown. Valdez has a 5.95 ERA in seven starts since Aug. 1. His outing Sunday against the Rangers offered signs of the form Houston needs to help fuel it down the stretch. 
• A depleted bullpen: Already without closer Josh Hader and setup man Bennett Sousa, the Astros placed Kaleb Ort on the injured list Friday. It leaves them without three constants from a bullpen that must cobble together a bridge to interim closer Bryan Abreu. Left-handers Bryan King and Steven Okert have played significant roles all season. Right-handers Enyel De Los Santos and Craig Kimbrel gain importance with Hader, Sousa and Ort all likely out for the regular season. Protecting Abreu, who has made a team-high 63 outings, for an October run is paramount. 

Matt Kawahara, Astros Beat Writer matt.kawahara@houstonchronicle.com

Photo by: Susan Barber, Cat DeLaura

A weekly stock market-style report on the Astros' key players.

Up: Yordan Alvarez

After missing 100 games recovering from a right hand fracture, Yordan Alvarez returned amid question of how quickly he could make his usual impact.

Alvarez has answered them. In his first 12 games back, Alvarez went 17-for-40 with three home runs and a .529 on-base percentage, providing a jolt to the Astros’ inconsistent offense.

It’s still unclear how long Alvarez played with hand pain before going on the IL. But in 100 at-bats before his absence, Alvarez had three home runs and seven extra-base hits. He struck three home runs and five extra-base hits in his first 35 at-bats after returning.

“That’s a presence,” teammate Christian Walker said. “You can feel the energy change when he comes up to the plate.” 

Down: Jose Altuve

Altuve raised his OPS to .826 on Aug. 10, the finale of his excellent series at Yankee Stadium, the highest it had been since mid-April. He has struggled since to harness the same production.

In his past 25 games, Altuve is batting .162 with seven extra-base hits and 20 strikeouts. He was hitless in 14 of those games.

Some signs of frustration have begun to show. After strikeouts with runners on base in each of the past two games at Texas, Altuve fired his bat to the ground.

So far, manager Joe Espada has not shifted Altuve from the third spot in his lineup. Jeremy Peña, Alvarez, Altuve and Carlos Correa have occupied...

Quote of the Week

In outdueling Texas ace Jacob deGrom on Saturday, Hunter Brown threw his seventh start this season of at least six innings with zero runs allowed.

The last Astros pitcher with seven such starts in a season was Justin Verlander in 2022. Only four pitchers in franchise history have recorded most such outings in a season, per Baseball Reference. Roger Clemens (2005) and Verlander (2018) each had nine. Pete Harnisch (1991) and Dallas Keuchel (2015) had eight.

Brown is 11-7 with a 2.25 ERA in his first 28 starts this season. His .198 opponents average would be tied for ninth-lowest by a qualified Astros starter in a season in franchise history. Pitchers who have compiled a lower one: Verlander, Nolan Ryan, Gerrit Cole, Mike Scott and J.R. Richard.

Top stories we're watching...

• Hunter Brown was having none of coming out after five innings. He then went out and got the job finished against the Rangers to punctuate a terrific start Saturday.
• Beat writer Matt Kawahara answers a variety of Astros questions in his bi-weekly mailbag, including on the team's offense approach.
• After opting to rehab his hamstring strain instead of having surgery, Astros infielder Isaac Paredes has resumed light baseball activites.
• Luis Garcia didn't allow doubt to creep in as he made his way back from Tommy John surgery despite setbacks to pitch again for the Astros.

Player spotlight

Framber Valdez was the talk of baseball after his start last week against the Yankees — not for a desirable reason.

Valdez allowed six runs and, two pitches after giving up a fifth-inning grand slam, threw a sinker that hit catcher César Salazar in the chest protector, igniting debate about whether the cross-up was intentional. Valdez acknowledged the cross-up but said it was not intentional.

Houston started Valdez on Sunday against the Rangers on regular rest and received seven innings from the left-hander, who allowed four runs (three earned) in what manager Joe Espada deemed “a really good outing.”

Valdez, through an interpreter, said he was “more chill” in Sunday’s start and it was “a priority for today … to keep my focus.” The Astros crave consistency from Valdez, who has a 5.95 ERA in seven starts since Aug. 1.