Washington, DC

1. Trump meets with Big Oil
2. Venezuela hearings call
3. Congress honeymoon over
4. SCOTUS tariff decision?
5. Fed to gain more clarity
6. Trump’s mortgage bond push
7. China’s economic weakness

PDB: Trump mulls $100,000 payments for Greenlanders

Border Patrol agents shoot two in Portland … NYT: Russia says used nuclear-capable missile … Iranians cut off from internet as protests swell

Trump to meet with Big Oil on Venezuela

President Donald Trump said he had cancelled a second wave of attacks on Venezuela after its interim government cooperated and will meet with top US oil executives today to discuss rebuilding the country’s oil industry. “At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House,” Trump posted on Truth Social early Friday; representatives from Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips are expected to attend. Meanwhile, the US cancelled “previously expected” strikes after Caracas began releasing political prisoners in large numbers, Trump posted, adding that “all ships will stay in place” for security reasons. Officials are confident Venezuela’s interim government will continue to work with the US, especially as the country’s economy nears collapse. But convincing US oil companies to get involved may be harder, as many say they’re owed billions of dollars by Venezuela.

— Shelby Talcott

Dems request public Venezuela hearings

Fresh off an initial win on the Senate floor to curtail Trump’s war powers in Venezuela, Senate Democrats are pressing Republicans to hold public hearings on both the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the administration’s future plans for the country, according to a letter first viewed by Semafor. In the missive to Republican leaders on the Armed Services, Foreign Relations, Judiciary and Intelligence committees, nine Democrats led by Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., say the public deserves “clarity as to why the president put our servicemembers in harm’s way and what his plan is in Venezuela moving forward.” Congress was privately briefed on the Maduro operation and next steps this week. But the Democrats say there’s more to do: “Congress must fulfill its constitutional duty to conduct oversight and reassert its role in future decisions regarding Venezuela.”

— Burgess Everett

Trump faces pushback from Congress

Trump’s honeymoon in the GOP Congress is ending, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Republicans are pushing back on his designs on Greenland, 17 House Republicans voted for Democrats’ Obamacare subsidies bill while more sought to override his vetoes, the Senate unanimously backed a plaque honoring law enforcement’s response on Jan. 6, and — perhaps most tellingly — five Republicans helped Democrats advance a resolution limiting the president’s use of the military in Venezuela. That prompted a volcanic response from Trump, as he called for the electoral defeat of GOP Sens. Susan Collins, Rand Paul, Todd Young, Josh Hawley and Lisa Murkowski. “I think he’s got a temper,” Paul told Semafor after the president’s outburst. “That was not directed at him — you can see how he might think it’s a personal affront to him — but I’ve been talking about this issue for decades.”

White House braces for tariff ruling

It’s decision day for the Supreme Court — and that has Washington buzzing about a potential ruling on Trump’s tariffs. The justices signaled skepticism of the administration’s sweeping tariffs — enacted using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — in oral arguments last year, and prediction markets give Trump roughly a 70% chance of losing the case. An adverse ruling for the White House “could impact government revenue, pushing Treasury yields higher and unleashing new waves of volatility across equity markets,” Reuters reported. That’s because the court could require the government to refund importers who have paid the duties, though CNBC notes the ruling may not be so straightforward or could require only “limited repayment.” One big question for Trump will be whether he’ll try to impose the levies using another authority (the White House has readied a plan B).

Fed eyes December jobs report

The Federal Reserve will receive more insight into the labor market this morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its last chunk of unemployment data for 2025. Though the agency said earlier this week that the number of job openings hit a 14-month low in November, there are signs the hotly anticipated new numbers could be more positive: The payroll company ADP estimated that companies added 41,000 jobs in December in a reversal from November’s decline (but still below expectations). Meanwhile, the hunt for Trump’s next Fed chair continues: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that there are still four candidates for the job, one of whom — BlackRock’s Rick Rieder — has yet to be interviewed. He predicted that the president would decide “right before” or “right after” attending the World Economic Forum in Davos at the end of the month.

— Eleanor Mueller

Fannie, Freddie to buy mortgage bonds

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will buy $200 billion of mortgage bonds as part of the administration’s latest affordability push, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte told Semafor. Trump had said on Truth Social he wanted his “Representatives” to buy the bonds in an effort to “drive Mortgage Rates DOWN.” “Mortgage bonds are critical to mortgage interest rates, so if you purchase bonds, oftentimes the price will go up and the rate will go down,” Pulte said in an interview, adding that this was one of “30 to 50 different ideas” officials have pitched to Trump: “It’s been all-hands-on-deck.” The purchase, which would also boost Fannie and Freddie’s profits as the administration mulls a public offering, is likely to revive a 2008-era debate over how much risk the firms should take on and how much they should distort the market.

— Eleanor Mueller

Chinese growth may be unsustainable

While some argue China has the upper hand in US trade talks, the reality might be more complicated — particularly given Beijing’s economic challenges. China’s new growth paradigm — reliant more on exports than investment — is unsustainable, wrote Semafor’s Andy Browne after he spoke to Chinese economists and analysts about the big risks the country faces in 2026, from its huge real-estate overhang to the limits of its attempted EV takeover. “A global backlash looms in 2026, and a fundamental question for the year ahead is whether the world’s second-biggest economy can shift the drivers of its growth toward consumption,” Andy argues. These challenges will serve as a colorful backdrop for Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in April, as the US makes a choice between protectionist policies and a more robust trade détente with Beijing.

Debatable: Maduro and the drug fight

Some in the Trump administration have tried to make the domestic case for the US capture of Maduro by arguing it will help stem drug shipments into the US. Maduro, now facing federal charges in New York, has long been accused of aiding drug trafficking. But experts say Venezuela plays essentially no role in bringing fentanyl into the US, and only a limited one in the trafficking of cocaine. Rahul Gupta, director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy under President Joe Biden, told Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant that defanging the drug trade requires more than “taking down any single figure.” But Melissa Ford Maldonado of the Trump-friendly America First Policy Institute called Maduro’s capture a “major victory in the fight against the drug cartels, even if the impact isn’t immediate or easily measured.”

Media veteran Ryan Lizza joins Mixed Signals for a raw, sprawling conversation about why he chose to publish an eight-part (and counting) Substack series responding to the most personal and public crisis of his career. Max and Ben press him on whether this was ever just a breakup story, why he believes the real scandal involves RFK Jr. and journalistic failures, and how Substack gave him the only viable way to tell the story in the first place. Lizza also reflects on leaving Politico, burning bridges with legacy outlets, the cost of going public, and what this episode taught him about our changing media landscape.

Listen to the latest Mixed Signals now.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “We should celebrate the fact that Maduro is gone,” said Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla. “Whether we did it the legal way is another discussion.”

Playbook: Trump allies concerned about how the Venezuela operation will play with voters are seeking to reframe it along domestic lines to avoid it being seen as the kind of foreign intervention that has overshadowed past presidencies.