Good morning. The average price of gasoline is now $4 a gallon in the United States. And food prices are going up. There’s more below. I’m going to start today, though, with what’s happening in Cuba.
A lifeline for CubaThe Russian oil tanker Anatoly Kolodkin was just offshore the port of Matanzas, Cuba, early this morning, carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil. The delivery offers a critical measure of relief for the island nation, which has struggled to function under crippling, sometimes dayslong electricity blackouts since January, when the Trump administration told the rest of the world to stop providing Cuba with oil. President Trump eased up on that stance over the weekend. “We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they need — they have to survive,” Trump said on Sunday night. “I told them, if a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem with that. Whether it’s Russia or not.” Yesterday, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said the United States would evaluate oil shipments to Cuba on a “case-by-case basis.” Trump says it doesn’t matter anyway. “It’s not going to have an impact — Cuba is finished,” he continued. “They have a bad regime. They have very bad and corrupt leadership. And whether or not they get a boat of oil, it’s not going to matter.” Simon Romero, who has been covering Cuba, told me yesterday that a boatload of oil might matter quite a bit. “It is one of the most mission-critical moments of the last 67 years in Cuba,” he said. “The regime is under intense pressure from the U.S. — but it is also extremely adept at maneuvering itself out of difficult situations. The arrival of the Russian oil is buying them valuable time.”
Life without oilIn the meantime, life in Cuba is punishing. The blockade has led to severe shortages of oil, gas and diesel fuel. Food is in short supply and difficult to keep refrigerated. The blockade has also incapacitated Cuba’s universal health care system, which was once seen as a jewel of the poor nation but now fights to provide even basic care. My colleagues Ed Augustin and Jack Nicas wrote about that: Hospitals are canceling surgeries and sending patients home because doctors and nurses can’t commute to work. Clinics are struggling to administer treatments like chemotherapy and dialysis because of power outages. Many ambulances are parked because drivers can’t find gas. Pharmacies are largely empty because the virtually bankrupt state is struggling to buy medicine. Production of medicine has been mostly halted because factories run on diesel. Vaccine makers are searching for ingredients because flights that once carried them are canceled because of a lack of jet fuel. And refrigerated vaccine stocks could soon spoil if the blackouts continue. I got Jack on the phone yesterday to ask about the fuel in particular. He told me that if you have a private vehicle in Cuba and want to get gas for its tank, you have to enter a virtual queue and wait your turn. That takes more than a month. If you have an official government vehicle, like a taxi, you can fill up once a week. “What we’re learning is that people are siphoning off some of that gas and selling it on the black market,” Jack said. The price is approaching $40 a gallon.
What comes next?The arrival of Russian oil could be a signal that the U.S. does not want to contribute to a humanitarian crisis, some experts say. The blockade has attracted international criticism, including from the United Nations. “Cuban society and infrastructure is so hampered right now that there is a real risk of a complete breakdown that would not be in anybody’s best interests,” one expert told The Times. “That’s a bridge too far.” But it also could be that the Trump administration wants time to handle the war in Iran before it turns to Cuba. “There is a palpable delay,” the expert continued. What might pull the White Houses’s attention back toward the island? “One thing that’s important to remember is that Venezuelan oil propped Cuba up for years,” Jack told me. “And who controls Venezuelan oil now?” Jack did not want to speculate whether an invasion of Cuba could happen, but he allowed that it is difficult to imagine Trump finding a suitable political partner anywhere in Cuba, certainly not anytime soon. “Cuba is not Venezuela,” he said. “It’s going to be hard to find someone in the government there who is not loyal to the revolution.” Related: The U.S. military base at Guantánamo Bay is one of the few places in Cuba where power is plentiful. A bowling alley, a sports bar and an arcade are operating without interruption.
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