Good morning, Andrew here. The Pentagon has denied a report in The Financial Times, based on unnamed sources, that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s broker had considered buying a defense exchange-traded fund shortly before the strikes on Iran began. The buzz the story has received underscores a larger problem: Why haven’t elected officials sought to restrict stock trading for themselves, their staff and anyone handling market-moving information? (Worries about insider trading have also dogged prediction markets; more on that below.) The reason seems obvious: self interest. But I’ve long been surprised that voters don’t seem to care more about this issue. If they did, politicians would be incentivized to support a ban. What do you think? Let me know. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
The Trump effect at the pumpSome calm has returned to global markets today as oil prices steady and stocks and bonds rebound largely on renewed hopes that President Trump wants a quicker end to the war in Iran. That may provide little solace to drivers, however. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. just topped $4 a gallon, a multiyear high. That is up more than $1 from the average on Feb. 28, when the war began, hammering Americans’ budgets.
The latest:
What’s driving today’s market optimism? Analysts pointed to remarks yesterday by Jay Powell, the Fed chair, and to a Wall Street Journal report suggesting that Trump had signaled a willingness to wind down the military operation without securing a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial for global oil and natural gas shipments. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, told The Journal that such a move would be “unbelievably irresponsible.” She added that it would be unlikely to cushion the U.S. economy from the war’s wider fallout. For some investors, a messy endgame may be better than a lengthy war. “Markets still took the report positively, because it raised the perceived probability that the conflict might soon end, avoiding the more escalatory scenarios like further damage to energy infrastructure,” Henry Allen, a Deutsche Bank markets strategist, wrote to investors this morning. Consumers and companies want quick relief, too. The price of jet fuel has more than doubled in Asia and Europe over the past month. That has prompted some airlines to increase fares (including by adding fuel surcharges), cut capacity and, in some cases in Asia, cancel flights. Analysts warn that could upend business travel and supply chains. Trump, though, expressed little sympathy for those feeling the jet fuel crunch. In a social media post this morning, he advised affected countries to buy fuel from the U.S., or “go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
Unilever says it’s in advanced talks to sell most of its food unit. Shares in Unilever climbed after the conglomerate said it could announce as soon as today a deal to sell the business to McCormick for $15.7 billion in cash and stock. The potential transaction would reduce Unilever’s exposure to the food business as it’s under pressure from restrained consumer spending and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. An S.E.C. proposal to end mandatory quarterly reporting advances to the White House. The potential change to corporate disclosure rules will now face challenges including public feedback. C.E.O.s like Larry Fink of BlackRock and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase have long supported the idea of less frequent corporate financial disclosures. Delaware’s top corporate judge reassigns cases involving Elon Musk. Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick of the state’s Court of Chancery stepped back from several cases, including one over his huge proposed pay package at Tesla. Lawyers for Musk had flagged that her LinkedIn account had appeared to like a post celebrating a loss for the billionaire; McCormick said she hadn’t seen or supported the post. Prosecutors eye insider trading on prediction marketsThe rapid growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has drawn billions in investment and explosive growth in users. But it has also drawn alarm from critics who warn that some bettors appear to be profiting from insider knowledge. That concern has grown especially acute amid questions about suspiciously well-timed bets, including those about the U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran — and reportedly has now caught the attention of law enforcement. Federal prosecutors have met with Polymarket to discuss how insider trading laws apply to its bets, CNN reported, citing unnamed sources. The examination, by officials in the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan, is looking into bets tied to events like the capture of Nicolás Maduro when he was the president of Venezuela, the news outlet added. A spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office told CNN that when it comes to prediction markets, prosecutors have been clear that existing laws — including those prohibiting insider trading, anti-money-laundering and market manipulation — “are applicable to a wide range of observed activity.” Polymarket hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing. A spokeswoman for the platform didn’t respond to DealBook’s request for comment, but told CNN that it “sets, maintains, and enforces the highest standards of market integrity” and works proactively with law enforcement. Robert DeNault, the head of enforcement at Kalshi, wrote on social media that “insider trading and market manipulation are violations of Kalshi’s rulebook.” Last month, the company announced its first enforcement actions against what it said was insider trading. Concern about insider trading on prediction markets is spreading. Questions about whether individuals with knowledge of the U.S. government’s Venezuela and Iran operations illicitly bet on such platforms have gained prominence. That has prompted several lawmakers to propose legislation limiting policymakers from betting on prediction markets. Government policy isn’t the only area that people are worried about. Over the weekend, the N.F.L. asked prediction markets to stop offering contracts on events that are easy to manipulate, such as what announcers say during game broadcasts or which celebrities show up. Powell on Iran, private credit and moreThe war in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, battered tech stocks and sent bonds on a roller-coaster ride. Through it all, investors have speculated about how the Fed is thinking about the war’s impact on inflation and growth — and whether the central bank might raise rates, not lower them. But that bet is off this morning, after remarks yesterday by Jay Powell, the Fed chair. “We feel like our policy’s in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out,” Powell said in response to a question at an event at Harvard. (Traders now predict the Fed will keep rates steady until October 2027.) Here’s what else Powell had to say:
Chart of the dayThe war in Iran may be whipsawing markets and creating uncertainty for boardrooms, traditionally an enemy for deal-making. But the first quarter of 2026 was the best start of a year for deal-making in five years, according to Dealogic, a performance aided by major transactions like Paramount’s $110 billion proposed takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Whoop raises $575 million to grow its wearable empireWhoop is famous for its wristband health trackers. But the company has higher ambitions: It wants to be known as a longevity platform. To get there, Whoop has raised more money. This morning, the company announced $575 million in new financing at a $10.1 billion valuation, Niko Gallogly reports for The Times. The round was led by Collaborative Fund. Other investors included the Qatar Investment Authority, the venture capital firm Foundry, the basketball star LeBron James and the soccer player Cristiano Ronaldo. Whoop operates on a subscription model, rather than relying just on device sales. It charges $199 annually for its cheapest product — discounted to $149 for the first year — which includes the fitness band and access to a health-tracking app that records metrics like heart rate variability, blood pressure and blood oxygen levels. Customers get graded on sleep and stress levels. After noticing how alcohol was negatively affecting his Whoop sleep score, Chris Moody, a venture capitalist at Foundry, has all but stopped drinking. “I’ve gone from, ‘Hey, maybe I’ll have a glass of wine four nights a week,’ to, you know, I’ll have a glass of wine once a year,” Moody, whose firm had previously invested in Whoop, told DealBook. Whoop is pivoting to focus on longevity. Today’s cultural obsession with biohacking has expanded Whoop’s customer base beyond elite athletes to everyday health enthusiasts. “I do envision the potential of Whoop to predict that you’re going to have a heart attack before you do,” Will Ahmed, the company’s C.E.O., told DealBook. That move helped the company double its total sales last year, reaching $1 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2025. Whoop will use much of the new funding to help develop more medical-grade product offerings. It plans to add 600 employees this year, an 80 percent increase. (Ahmed said the company planned to go public in the next few years.) But Whoop is increasingly entering a regulatory gray zone. As its devices start tracking blood pressure and monitoring electrocardiograms, they’re blurring the line between wellness and medical devices. Last year, the F.D.A. warned Whoop that its blood pressure product hadn’t gained required regulatory approval. (The company argued that it was a wellness device not intended to diagnose medical conditions.) In January, the agency released new wellness guidance, allowing Whoop to continue selling its product. And Whoop has plenty of competitors, including Oura Health, whose rings also tracks sleep, heart rate and blood-oxygen levels. It was valued at $11 billion last year. Other competitors include the Apple Watch and fitness watches from Garmin and Coros, and none of those require subscriptions. We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times.
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