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We are entering an era that promises a new kind of arms race. It’s not about bombs, missiles, or drones (at least not yet). It’s about software. People who work at the cutting edge of technology have known this arms race was coming soon, but even they’ve been surprised at how quickly it arrived. The first front in this new war opened in between events at a wedding in Bali, where an AI researcher named Nicholas Carlini “opened his laptop, and set out to do some damage. Anthropic PBC had just made a new artificial intelligence model, called Mythos, available for internal review, and Carlini — a well-known AI researcher — intended to see what kind of trouble it could cause.” The answer: A lot. Like, really a lot. “Within hours Carlini found numerous techniques to infiltrate systems used around the world. Once Carlini was back in Anthropic’s downtown San Francisco office, he discovered Mythos was able to autonomously create powerful break-in tools, including against Linux, the open-source code that underpins most of modern computing. Mythos orchestrated the digital equivalent of a bank robbery: getting past security protocols and through the front door of networks, and breaking into digital vaults that gave it access to online treasures. AI had picked locks, but now it could pull off an entire heist.” The awareness of the power of this new AI model moved Anthropic to limit its release to top software companies and government agencies, giving them a head start to find vulnerabilities before someone else does. But Anthropic won’t be the last AI company to have a model this powerful. And, as we’ve learned, battles between boosting corporate valuations and doing what’s best for society don’t always play out this way. And, as we’ve also learned, bad guys know how to develop technology, too. We’re only going to be able to keep these threats at an arm’s length for so long. Bloomberg (Gift Article): How Anthropic Learned Mythos Was Too Dangerous for the Wild.
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Defense Mechanisms
While the AI arms race is rapidly changing, the traditional arms race is undergoing a similar transformation. Ukraine and Iran are serving as test cases for a new kind of war, where bigger isn’t always better. “In the past, military power was often determined by size – the number of knights, soldiers, guns or tanks, depending on the era, that an army had. Since the Cold War, advanced militaries have emphasized precise munitions, such as cruise missiles, gaining advantage with fewer but more accurately targeted weapons. Inexpensive but technologically sophisticated drones bring mass and precision together.” The Conversation: One‑way attack drones: Low‑cost, high‑tech weapons ‘democratize’ precision warfare.
+ So far, the use of drones and other low cost munitions has been countered using advanced missiles and other other high cost defense systems. Those weapons are expensive, and they take longer to produce. Hence, we get a headline like this from the WSJ (Gift Article): Pentagon Approaches Automakers, Manufacturers to Boost Weapons Production. “The Trump administration wants automakers and other American manufacturers to play a larger role in weapons production, reminiscent of a practice used during World War II ... The Pentagon is interested in enlisting the companies to use their personnel and factory capacity to increase production of munitions and other equipment as the wars in Ukraine and Iran deplete stocks.”
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The Other War
“’This grim and chastening anniversary marks another year when the world has failed to meet the test of Sudan,’ Tom Fletcher, emergency relief coordinator at the United Nations, said in a statement before a conference in Berlin on Wednesday to raise aid funds and call attention to the brutal conflict. ‘Sudan is an atrocities laboratory: sieges, denial of food, weaponized sexual violence.’” NYT (Gift Article): Sudan Enters Fourth Year of War Amid World’s Most Severe Humanitarian Crisis. This conflict is overshadowed by other wars. But it’s not unaffected by them. “The American-Israeli war on Iran has led to rising global fuel and fertilizer prices, Mr. Fletcher noted, compounding the severe food crisis in Sudan.”
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Crossing the Pope
“Vance’s slap at Leo—including the pompous implication that he needs to go back and do some theology homework—illustrates the political and religious risks that Vance is willing to take not only with the Vatican, but with a country whose population is one-fifth Catholic, in order to demonstrate his utter fealty to Trump.” Tom Nichols in The Atlantic (Gift Article): Pope James David Vance the First.
+ Amid a quarrel with the Pope, Trump strips Miami charity of funding to house migrant kids. (This move features blasphemy, spite, pettiness, cruelty, corruption, vindictiveness, and the harm of immigrant children. How could Trump resist?)
+ The Pope isn’t backing down. “Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth ... They turn a blind eye to the fact that billions of dollars are spent on killing and devastation, yet the resources needed for healing, education and restoration are nowhere to be found ... The world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants.”
+ “Pete Hegseth — always ready to get medieval on someone’s ass — quoted a fake Bible verse from Pulp Fiction while leading a prayer service at the Pentagon.” (Also, we have a lot of prayer services at the Pentagon these days...)
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Extra, Extra
Ceasefire Spreads: From Reuters: Trump says Israel and Lebanon agree on ceasefire, optimism grows on ending Iran war. At this point, almost all parties have significant motivations to end this thing (even if they end up in worse positions than before the war). Trump is worried about the stock market and his falling approval numbers. Iran’s economy is on the brink. And Europe has ‘maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left.’ Here’s the latest from The Guardian, NBC, and the NYT.
+ Swalwell Known: “My whole body felt physically sick and I remember my head rushed, and I just was like, oh, my gosh ... I just felt like I had to do everything I could to just hold one man accountable.” NPR: How Eric Swalwell’s fall was brought on by a network of women who organized online. (Now, for the next question: How did his support from insiders last as long as it did?) Also, “Former Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, a rising star in the Democratic Party before his career was derailed by sexual assault allegations several years ago, killed his wife before killing himself, police said Thursday.”
+ Shaker of Salt: WSJ (Gift Article): San Diego Now Has So Much Water That It’s Selling It. “With the Colorado River in crisis, Arizona and Nevada are turning to an unconventional lifeline: the ocean water off California’s golden beaches. Both desert states are pursuing a deal with the San Diego County Water Authority to tap millions of gallons of fresh water produced by a Carlsbad ocean-desalination plant—the largest in North America—to help offset their reliance on the collapsing Colorado River.” (If we desalinate fast enough, maybe we can drink our way out of the sea rise problem!)
+ Yale Gives it the Old Harvard Try: “A 10-member committee offered a brutal assessment of academia’s role in creating the forces challenging American colleges and universities.” NYT (Gift Article): Yale Report Finds Colleges Deserve Blame for Higher Education’s Problems.
+ Arch Madness: “Mr. Trump’s push to build the giant arch — more than quadrupling its size from original plans — has alienated early proponents of the project, classical architects and veterans groups who say it will diminish nearby Arlington Cemetery.” Trump’s ‘Triumphal Arch’ Draws Backlash, Even From an Expert Who Proposed It. (I know everyone is investing in AI these days, but I’m put