Washington, DC

1. US-Iran deal in question
2. Tariff refund program
3. FISA, funding battles
4. Warsh’s big week
5. RFK Jr. scores a win
6. A resilient US economy

PDB: Carney calls American ties ‘weaknesses’

UK’s Starmer addresses Parliament amid Epstein fallout … Louisiana shooting kills eight children … WSJ: UAE asks US for financial lifeline amid war

US-Iran ceasefire deal tested

Hopes dimmed that a new round of US-Iran negotiations would result in lasting peace after the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, leading Tehran to threaten retaliation. A two-week ceasefire ends Wednesday, and President Donald Trump has threatened to “knock out every single Power Plant” in Iran if an agreement is not reached by then. He said US representatives were en route to Pakistan for further talks, but Tehran has not confirmed whether it will take part. The talks follow a weekend that tested the fragile truce: The seized Iranian ship had been attempting to evade the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran said it would retake control of the waterway. Iran also reportedly attacked multiple commercial ships in the strait, which Trump said constituted “a total violation of our ceasefire agreement.” Oil and gas prices spiked on the news.

— Shelby Talcott

Firms start applying for tariff refunds

Scores of businesses that paid Trump administration tariffs later deemed illegal by the Supreme Court will be able to request refunds starting today, even as the president explores other avenues to impose the duties. Customs and Border Protection is finally launching its tariff refund portal, called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE, to “efficiently process refunds, pursuant to court order, for importers and brokers who paid IEEPA duties,” a CBP spokesperson said. While the new system’s arrival is a relief for businesses, the government estimates it will still take 60 to 90 days for them to receive refunds after their applications are accepted. In total, officials estimate they owe businesses $166 billion in tariff refunds, and the first phase of CAPE will only take care of businesses who applied to receive electronic refunds (they’re owed $127 billion).

— Morgan Chalfant

GOP faces a massive April to-do list

Republicans have a lot to do — and little time to do it. After last week’s punt, key warrantless surveillance powers are set to expire on April 30, and it will be hard to clinch a longer-term FISA extension that can get 60 Senate votes and a House majority. The Department of Homeland Security shutdown is on its 66th day and the House hasn’t passed the Senate bill funding DHS through September minus ICE and CBP. Senate Republicans will address that with a separate, party-line funding bill that would fund immigration enforcement for the rest of Trump’s presidency. Text for the Senate’s budget resolution setting up the bill is expected early this week, with an unlimited vote-a-rama in the coming days.

— Burgess Everett

Senate braces for Fed pick

The Senate Banking Committee will at last hold its hearing this week on Trump’s pick to helm the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh — but his nomination is currently poised to advance no further. Trump is doubling down on his Justice Department’s investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell even as congressional Republicans increasingly speak out against it, ensuring that Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., will indeed cast the “no” vote that prevents Warsh’s selection from advancing to the floor. Asked Wednesday about potential plans to win him over, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said only: “Let’s get to the hearings and see where we are then.” Committee Democrats, meanwhile, are calling for delaying even the hearing until the probe is dropped, with ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., raising separate concerns over Warsh’s financial entanglements and his mention in the Epstein files.

 — Eleanor Mueller

Kennedy scores a win ahead of big week

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who’s faced a rocky stretch recently as the Trump administration downplays vaccine skepticism, scored a weekend win ahead of high-profile Hill testimony. Trump signed an order hastening reviews of psychedelics like ibogaine, flanked by podcaster Joe Rogan — who endorsed the president in 2024 but has criticized the Iran war, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Shelby Talcott report. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said the agency is expecting three clinical trial applications and plans to issue National Priority Vouchers next week. The vast majority of psychedelics will remain illegal, however. Kennedy, who has long touted psychedelic drugs’ potential to treat conditions like depression despite risks, may field questions about the order when he testifies before a House committee on Tuesday and two Senate committees on Wednesday.

View / A resilient economy, despite it all

Since Semafor World Economy ended Friday, I’ve been asking colleagues and chatbots alike for a preliminary sense of the consensus among the 500 CEOs, dozens of Cabinet officials, lawmakers, and finance ministers who attended. The bottom line: There is a growing belief in the resilience of the US economy — and of flexible globalized business more broadly — in the face of whatever gets thrown at it. A year ago, AI felt like a threat to that resilience; now, business leaders increasingly think that AI-driven productivity gains may counterbalance worries about inflation and the global economy. After all, a year bookended by the “Liberation Day” tariff onslaught and the Iran war left markets at record highs last week. But there’s also a second consensus: that the Trump administration is doing long-term damage to the global political system which, long-term, will make the world more dangerous and expensive.

Blindspot: Mamdani and Trump

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani called his relationship with President Trump “honest, direct and productive,” NBC reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: Trump’s approval rating fell to a second-term low of 37%, according to a new NBC News poll.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., faces a tenuous position with Democrats in his state, with not a single Pennsylvania House Democrat in the delegation willing to say Fetterman should run for reelection.

Playbook: “Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is today launching Small Town PAC, a new federal PAC to recruit and support Democratic candidates and expand the map.”

Axios: President Trump and White House aides have been “working aggressively behind the scenes” to court influential podcaster Joe Rogan despite his vocal criticism of the Iran war, with one aide saying Trump is “frequently” in touch.

White House

• President Trump will join a public Bible reading on Tuesday following his feud with Pope Leo XIV.
• A State Department delegation made a recent trip to Havana as Trump’s threats against Cuba continue. — NYT

Congress

• Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., said mistakes in her financial disclosure paperwork made her appear far wealthier than she is. — WSJ

Campaigns

• Mitch Landrieu, the former Louisiana governor and Biden White House adviser, is considering a 2028 Democratic presidential run. — CNN

Courts

• The New York Times published a series of internal memos between Supreme Court justices that show “how the justices talk to one another outside of public view.”
• DC police tried to arrest Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., after an assault accusation last year. — WaPo
• Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon is demanding all 2024 ballots from the Detroit area as the Trump administration pursues unproven election fraud; Michigan rebuffed her.

National Security

• FBI Director Kash Patel’s drinking and absenteeism have seriously concerned bureau staff, The Atlantic reported; Patel has vowed to sue the magazine.
• The Justice Department and FBI are relaxing hiring requirements in order to rebuild their workforces, which some former officials see as a “lowering of long-accepted standards.” — AP
• More Republican influencers, including former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, are doubting or outright denying aspects of the assassination attempt against President Trump. — Wired
• The US attacked another boat in the Caribbean, killing three. — NYT

Foreign Policy

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney used a national address in part to respond to remarks Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick gave at Semafor World Economy last week: “Many of our former strengths, based on our close ties to A