For most of the 2026 cycle, Republicans have been all but certain they will hold the Senate after November.
The confidence was structural. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber. They have a favorable map: To win 51 seats, Democrats would need to hold all their current seats, flip North Carolina and Maine — and still win another two states that Trump carried by at least 13 points in 2024. The geography was so forbidding to Democrats that analysts with the Cook Political Report last August called the party’s path to a majority “herculean.”
Now, just over six months out from Election Day, the herculean suddenly seems plausible.
“There’s a storm coming,” Matt Rexroad, a Republican consultant, told MS NOW. “This is the time to hold what you’ve got, get good candidates and just try to hold on to the seats we have.”
This is a preview of Ebony Davis’ latest article. Read the full article here.
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