What matters in U.S. and global markets today

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Morning Bid U.S.

Morning Bid U.S.

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

 

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance & Markets

Tech stocks are refusing to go to ground this week, despite ongoing Gulf tensions and the looming expiry of the current two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire on Wednesday.

Although Wall Street indexes edged lower on Monday, futures rebounded overnight and tech-heavy global bourses pushed higher, especially in Asia.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on whether Europe's savings rates could help it weather the oil shock - and why the answer isn’t so simple.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

Finally, don't forget to mark April 23 in your calendar, when ⁠I'll be joining my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever for a timely webinar discussion on rethinking safe-haven assets in uncertain times. Sign up here. 

 
 

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Today's Market Minute

  • The United States expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran would go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant hurdles and uncertainty remained as the end of a ceasefire loomed.
  • Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh faces a Senate hearing on Tuesday where lawmakers will likely press the Fed chief nominee to flesh out his monetary policy and economic ideas and calls for fundamental change.
  • SpaceX plans to cement founder Elon Musk's control after its IPO, granting him and a small group of insiders super-voting shares that will outweigh other investors.
  • Can Big Tech's profits survive the energy squeeze? ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever breaks down a key potential risk to the "AI or die" mantra.
  • U.S. crude and fuel exports are surging, but even record-high flows cannot fully replace the losses from the Iran war, writes ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell.
 

Tech overwhelms Iran tension

Wall Street’s pause on Monday came as investors fretted about the durability of the ceasefire and uncertain prospects for further peace talks, which a Pakistani source said could recommence on Wednesday. Tehran is still reviewing its participation in the potential talks.

Despite Monday’s lull, sentiment improved on Tuesday as Asian stocks largely rose amid renewed AI enthusiasm and reports that Iran was considering joining talks.

South Korea’s volatile Kospi pushed to a new high for the first time since the Iran war began, with tech-led gains also lifting markets in Tokyo and Taiwan. Tech investor SoftBank surged and memory chipmaker SK Hynix hit a fresh all-time high.

Sentiment was also boosted by Amazon’s announcement on Monday that it plans to invest up to $25 billion in AI startup Anthropic. That follows its $50 billion investment in OpenAI earlier this year.

Those deals will set the tone as U.S. tech earnings get underway this week, with Tesla reporting earnings on Wednesday. Meantime, Elon Musk's SpaceX is holding closed-door analyst briefings this week ahead of a record-breaking IPO later in the year.

Apple’s shares, meanwhile, largely shrugged off the announcement that hardware chief John Ternus would succeed Tim Cook as CEO from September. Cook is set to remain on the board as executive chairman after 15 years at the helm.

On the macro front, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will face Congress today for his confirmation hearing, with his prepared remarks suggesting he’ll emphasise a commitment to Fed independence. U.S. retail sales for March will dominate the data slate, offering a glimpse into how consumers absorbed the first month of the Iran war and oil shock.

Elsewhere, European shares edged up slightly in early trading as investors eyed possible U.S.-Iran talks.

Even as tech earnings come into the spotlight this week, attention will remain fixed on the fate of the expiring ceasefire and whether an 11th-hour extension or renewed talks will validate the market’s assumption that both sides ultimately want to avoid further escalation.

With that, onto today's column.

 
 

Can Europe take advantage of its savings buffer over US?

If a hit to household finances is what dictates the economic impact of this oil shock, then European households have more savings insulation than their U.S. counterparts, tempering a narrative that Europe stands to suffer far more.

The Iran conflict may well be winding down. But eight weeks of sky-high oil and gas prices, and a likely slow return to normal over many weeks and months, mean trepidation about the economic fallout persists.

 

 

Graphics are produced by Reuters.

Read the full column
 

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