Tonight: Don't miss Food Club Live with my colleague Alexa Gagosz at Track 15 in Providence. You can sign up here.

It appears all but certain now that House Speaker Joe Shekarchi is going to apply for the vacant seat on the Rhode Island Supreme Court, which is likely to trigger a significant change in House leadership, prompt a high-stakes debate about his eligibility for the bench, and ultimately force Governor Dan McKee to make a tough decision. 

The political and legal fallout can roughly be broken into three phases: the immediate maneuvering inside the State House, the medium-term ethics and eligibility questions, and the long-term power dynamics that could reshape Rhode Island politics well beyond this judicial vacancy.

⚖️ Immediate: The buzz around the State House is that Shekarchi will hand off the speakership to House Majority Leader Chris Blazejewski as soon as this week, but hold onto his seat as a state representative. He has until Thursday to apply for the Supreme Court vacancy – it’s possible that he already has submitted an application – but it will be worth monitoring what kind of role Shekarchi wants to play in the chamber without the gavel in his hand. How often will he show up? Will he function like a shadow speaker?

⚖️ Medium term: Stepping down as speaker is largely a symbolic move to avoid optics problems while he tries to become a judge, but there are more significant issues for Shekarchi to address. Remember, attorneys for the Rhode Island Ethics Commission didn’t believe then-senator Erin Lynch Prata should be allowed to make the jump directly from the Senate to the bench, but the commission rejected the staff advice. But as Roger Williams University Law School professor Michael Yelnosky has pointed out, the commission never actually issued an advisory opinion for Lynch Prata. You can expect an Ethics Commission debate, as well as questions about what Shekarchi will do with the $4.7 million in his campaign account.

⚖️ Long term: Assuming the Judicial Nominating Commission makes Shekarchi a finalist for the judgeship, McKee still has to nominate Shekarchi to the House and Senate. This puts McKee in a powerful position. He is facing a difficult reelection campaign, and still needs to win passage of his proposed budget and secure the endorsement of the Rhode Island Democratic Party — both areas where House leadership wields enormous influence. What deals — implied or explicit — will be made?