Bracing For The Next Redemption

We’ll get to Jared Polis in a minute, but first: Imagine two futures in which Democrats manage to defeat Trumpism through normal politics. They win the coming midterms, notwithstanding unprecedented Republican subversion, and keep or expand their majorities two years later. No second coup attempt, no second insurrection. MAGA just burns itself out and Democrats get another shot at governing, just like they did in 2021.

In universe one, they do everything a person with advanced Trump Derangement Syndrome could want. Day one: every federal monument to Trump, demolished. Day two: the filibuster, abolished. Day three: the Supreme Court, expanded. Day four: a big democracy-reform bill becomes law. It creates multiple new states, a federal gerrymandering ban, robust campaign-finance rules, truth and reconciliation, etc. etc.

With the tools of minority rule much diminished, Democrats could, from there, turn their attention to the “look forward” stuff that places them most at ease: health insurance expansions, progressive tax increases, “affordability” measures, dictated by need in the country at the moment. They could legislate as quickly as their internal politics allow, and have real insurance against Republican lawfare.

In universe two, though, they skip straight to the second part. They decide the public doesn’t care about all this democracy stuff. They have to win voters over by improving their material conditions—and if they drain their political capital by steamrolling Republicans in a burst of democracy protection, they won’t have enough capital left to create the kind of change that might shake voters out of their decade-long malaise.

Naturally that means trying to cram everything into one budget-reconciliation bill, because nothing else can clear Republican filibusters. Then, in the rollout process, federal judges in red states tell them they can’t implement their new programs until the Supreme Court adjudicates the merits of several frivolous legal and constitutional challenges. The Supreme Court extends these injunctions nationwide on the shadow docket, then dispenses merits rulings slowly. To maintain an appearance of even-handedness, they allow about half of these new laws to take effect, but throw out the other half. Now it’s 2030. It’s been 18 months since Democrats came back to power and they’ve only just started implementing their post-Trump reforms. The ones that survived, anyhow.

Thus, to casual observers, it just seems like nothing has changed at all. A federal judge in Texas has exploited the provisions of the Laken Riley Act to require the federal government to enforce immigration law in Trump-like fashion. President Jon Ossoff instructs the Justice Department to challenge the constitutionality of this provision, but here the Supreme Court feels no need to drag its feet. Six Republican justices uphold that law in its entirety, and pepper their opinion with allusions to the fact that Ossoff voted for the bill as a senator, casting doubt on the sincerity of the government’s complaint. Legally irrelevant, but excellent fodder for right-wing talking heads on cable news panels.

Which sounds better to you? Which do you think Democratic presidential hopefuls would want to form the backdrop of their presidency?

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I suspect zero Democrats of any prominence would publicly claim to believe the latter future is the better future. In universe one, Republican judges couldn’t subvert democracy from the bench or on the shadow docket. The structural reforms make it easier to pass substantive policy measures and then insulates them from judicial sabotage. Skip the structural reforms and the policy gains die in the courts.

And so the good news is that events and personalities will dictate everything, from whether Democrats reconsolidate power at all, to how they choose to use it. A leader determined to avoid obvious pitfalls might steer the party toward reform.

Universe one is still officially available to all of us.

But the way today’s Democrats conduct themselves, universe two represents a likelier future.

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