U.S. control over Venezuela can perhaps be summarized best by what the White House’s chief energy adviser signed in a guestbook shortly after landing in Caracas’ main international airport last month: “Drill baby drill!”

As Jarrod Agen, the executive director of the Trump administration’s National Energy Dominance Council, put it to Politico, his gesture showcased the “massive change” underway in Venezuela, a South American nation with one of the world’s largest oil reserves. Nearly six months after President Donald Trump ousted its dictator Nicolás Maduro, the interim government has relaxed longstanding financial restrictions to open Venezuela for foreign investment.

The lightning U.S. military intervention yielded an outcome that isn’t so much regime change as it is a cosmetic makeover with most of the regime’s underlying political and security apparatus still intact. The Trump administration is calling the shots in Caracas, chiefly by exercising control over Venezuelan oil sales and soon influencing a $170 billion restructuring of defaulted bonds. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez has drawn lavish praise from Trump for her cooperative attitude toward the U.S.

With oil prices shooting upwards due to supply shocks from the Iran war, U.S. and other Western oil companies are taking a fresh look at collaborating with a socialist government that expropriated their equipment and drilling sites two decades ago. Now a bloc of American oil companies are coming out ahead as early winners as the Trump administration’s sway over Venezuela’s trajectory deepens.

Chevron struck a deal in mid-April with the state firm PDVSA to step up heavy crude output in the oil-rich Orinoco Belt. ExxonMobil isn’t far behind in signing a landmark deal that would enable its return to Venezuela, the New York Times reported.

Not every major U.S. oil firm is sold on re-entering Venezuela. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told Bloomberg News that the Venezuelan government still has “a long way to go” in reforming its state-dominated economy.

Earlier this year, the Venezuelan government approved a law that handed foreign companies more control over oil projects. Lance said it didn’t go far enough to alleviate fears of having their assets seized again

Oil and gas companies are operating in a different world compared to the start of the year. At one point, energy markets were so swamped with oil that analysts forecasted 2026 to be a year of sliding oil prices. Shortly after U.S. forces captured Maduro, Trump was talking up $50 per barrel as his magic number for prices, even as oil companies struggled to maintain profits and shareholder dividends at prior, robust levels against tumbling crude prices.

No longer. The Iran war catapulted energy markets into turmoil and now scarcity is their defining feature, not surplus. Oil prices have been swinging above and below $100 per barrel of crude, very much elevated from before the war but still much lower than early doomsday forecasts of $150 or more.

That’s double the figures forecasted at the beginning of the year. Elevated oil prices are stirring new appetite for companies to bolster crude oil production, now that new drilling is a more profitable undertaking. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods — who notably described Venezuela as “uninvestable” in January — has backpedaled on his dismal outlook.

“So I feel positive about what's happening, the opportunity there,” Woods told investors this month. “More work to do, but I think we'll be uniquely positioned and play an important role in bringing those barrels to market.”

ExxonMobil reported a $2 billion boost to its revenue because of higher oil prices stemming from the Iran war. Progress toward a peace deal has been halting, causing some analysts to project that triple-digit crude oil prices will linger for months.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth similarly relayed to investors a cautious outlook following “positive developments” in Venezuela’s economic reforms. Still, he said, the post-Maduro government hasn’t fully addressed how it will handle contract disputes, royalties, and other potential sources of conflict.

For its part, the White House is maintaining enthusiasm that its Venezuela gambit will prove to be a successful one that carries little chance of blowback. “We’re opening up new production of Venezuela. Venezuela’s hitting record production, and that’s all coming up to the U.S,” Agen told CNBC earlier this month. “Once the Strait of Hormuz is open, you’re going to see the prices come down, but we’re all going to be in a better position.”

“Make Venezuela Investable Again” succinctly captures the administration's early aims so far in the South American nation. It won’t be on a bumper sticker anytime soon.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Chevron’s stock price has jumped about 18% since the start of the year. Surging energy stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 index, which has gained about 9% so far this year.