Ask any business chief about the hottest corporate acronyms and a likely answer after EBITDA and ARR is TAM—total addressable market. It’s the perfect performance metric for the sky’s-the-limit AI category. How much money
could we make, really?
No surprise, then, that it’s an attractive figure for a highly valued tech company flirting with going public. Back in 2019, Uber told IPO investors its TAM was $6 trillion; it’s now No. 102 on the
Fortune 500 with $52 billion in annual revenue. This year SpaceX outlined a mind-boggling TAM of $28.5 trillion en route to its June debut; it’s currently hoping to end the year with $100 billion in annual revenue.
Well, if you haven’t heard, a little San Francisco AI outfit called Anthropic is on the fast track to a record IPO. And as you might expect, the numbers involved are head and shoulders above most that came before it…including its TAM.
Anthropic believes its total addressable market is north of $30 trillion,
according to a new Wall Street Journal report. That figure—just shy of the nominal GDP for the U.S.—is meant to encompass “the full scope of work that could be completed with AI models,” the paper notes. (The mind reels.)
Will investors buy what Anthropic’s selling? Even if they figuratively don’t, they may very well on a literal basis when it’s time for that all-important market debut. Anthropic hopes to raise as much as $100 billion in its IPO. The company more than doubled its revenue in Q2, to $11.6 billion, and hopes to log its first profitable quarter any minute now.
Whether Anthropic’s TAM is a scam, as critics of the metric like to say, may very well be beside the point. If the AI soothsayers are to be believed, there are new kinds of work and businesses emerging—and that spells opportunity, TAM be damned.
—AN