Retail trading is a bit like saying the phrase “6-7.” It was all the rage last year, but it’s been much less popular in 2026. As a result, average joe investors have ceded some of their influence on markets back to institutional traders. Turning down the volumeRetail investors—who tend to lack the sophisticated expertise and fleece vests that professional traders possess—are often referred to as “dumb money,” and, historically, they didn’t account for huge proportions of trading volume. But things changed during the pandemic, when zero-commission trading, social media coordination, and home-baked sourdough fueled a retail revolution, thanks in part to the rise of meme stocks. Most experts thought the dumb money trend would fade away, but it proved resilient. By 2025, it was looking smarter than ever, thanks to the TACO trade, where individual investors bought market dips on the assumption that President Trump would roll back policy proposals, while institutional investors watched the volatility from the stands. But things have started to flip back this year, and the so-called smart money is at the front of the parade again. According to a CNBC report: - Retail investors’ share of S&P 500 trading volume is now more than three percentage points below the five-year average, according to Goldman Sachs.
- Meanwhile, institutional investors’ options flow is three times higher than it usually is in September, according to data from Vanda Research.
Where have all the retail investors gone?Some are handing their decision-making over to AI agents, which, with the right prompts, can act like boring dispassionate hedge fund managers that might be more content to ride out long-term waves (and, theoretically, make fewer trades). Others are stepping away from stocks and taking advantage of the highest bond yields in more than a decade. Through August, $625 billion net flowed into US bond funds so far this year—the highest that number’s been since 2010, according to research firm Morningstar. Meanwhile, in an uncertain macro environment, institutional investors are still finding horses to bet on. They’re just being more selective and sticking to specific AI stocks, like Meta, according to Viraj Patel, global market strategist at Vanda.—BC |