Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The 15 largest European members of NATO will need to nearly double their annual military investment to $720 billion — adding $340 billion — to bolster capacity against Russia and offset the possibility of less US support under a Donald Trump presidency, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report published today. The extra spend would cover battle tanks, artillery and infantry fighting vehicles for ground forces as well as support aircraft such as tankers, cargo and sub-hunters, the report says. Yet after decades of underinvestment stretching back to the end of the Cold War, rearmament at this scale could take more than a decade. Defense ministers will gather in Brussels today, joined by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. 

— Lyubov Pronina and Adrea Palasciano

Europe’s Challenges | Even before Trump won the US elections, Europe was struggling with a dormant stock market, brittle currency, crisis-ridden politics and a stagnant economy. Now, with new trade tariffs and investment outflows on the horizon, things could get even more dire. Read our report on the widening gap between Europe and the US.

Limited Range | Joe Biden’s decision to let Ukraine hit targets inside Russia failed to galvanize broader allied support. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Scholz made it clear he wasn’t going to budge on long-range missiles. On the other side, Chinese and Russian companies were developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, European officials told us. 

Done Deal | The ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by a quarter point in December, Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras told us. The Greek central bank chief also predicted that benchmark borrowing costs could fall “close to 2%” if inflation continues to slow. He also said that Trump’s promised tariffs could potentially spark a recession and deflation in Europe.

Settle Faster | EU markets regulator ESMA recommended that the bloc shorten the time it takes to settle securities transactions from two days to one. That would put the region back in step with the US and Canada, and the UK plans to shift in the final quarter of 2027.  

Backroom Politicking | Polish President Andrzej Duda says he knows why Germany’s Scholz agreed to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week: “I believe it was an attempt to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine before Donald Trump took office,” he said in an interview in Warsaw. Duda, a Trump ally, suspects Scholz wants to cut the Republican out of the process.

Damaged Links | An undersea fiber optic cable linking Finland and Germany was severed by what authorities are saying was “likely an external impact.” A nearby link between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged. The news came just after Finland launched a new website aimed at ensuring preparedness for crisis or conflict. 

Looking Abroad | Europe has one of the weakest telecom markets in the world. And unless policymakers encourage more consolidation and cut regulation, Ericsson will continue to move investments to markets abroad, CEO Börje Ekholm told us. 

LNG Surge | France’s imports of LNG from Russia have surged to a record high. Even as the EU reduces its reliance on Russian energy in the wake of the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the bloc has leaned heavily on LNG to fill the gap. 

Data Leak | Meta risks being on the hook for compensating thousands of German users over a 2021 leak involving the private data of half a billion people. The Federal Court of Justice, Germany’s highest tribunal in civil matters, eased the standard of proof for Facebook users seeking compensation for data theft.

Naval Drills | Greece’s navy prolonged a series of drills by four months as the country tries to deter Russian oil transfers off its coastline. The country’s Laconian Gulf at one point became a hotspot for ship-to-ship transfers between aging tankers carrying Russian oil.

Economists have given up hope that Germany can avoid a second consecutive year of shrinking output, according to a Bloomberg survey. Analysts see GDP contracting 0.1% in 2024, after a 0.3% fall in 2023. A month ago, they forecast stagnation this year. For 2025, they revised their full-year projection down to 0.7% from 0.8%.  Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has warned that Trump’s threatened trade levies could cost Germany 1% of economic output.

All times CET

• European affairs ministers meet in Brussels
• 10:30 a.m. NATO chief Rutte holds doorstep at EU defense ministers meeting
• 11 a.m. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses special plenary session of European Parliament marking 1,000 days since Russia invaded Ukraine
• EU defense ministers meet in Brussels, with news conference at 2:30 p.m.
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Rio de Janeiro for G-20 leaders summit
• EU financial services chief Mairead McGuinness delivers keynote at the European Central Securities Depositories Association conference

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