By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

GRIM MILESTONE — “Ukraine marks 1,000 days of war in 'frozen trenches, burning steppes,’” by Reuters’ Tom Balmforth: “Thousands of Ukrainian citizens have died, over 6 million live as refugees abroad and the population has fallen by a quarter, opens new tab since Kremlin leader VLADIMIR PUTIN ordered the invasion by land, sea and air that began Europe’s biggest conflict since World War Two.”

For your radar (and NORAD’s) … “Putin signs new Russian nuclear doctrine after Biden’s arms decision for Ukraine,” AP: “The signing of the doctrine, which says that any massive aerial attack on Russia could trigger a nuclear response, demonstrates Putin’s readiness to tap the country’s nuclear arsenal to force the West to back down as Moscow presses a slow-moving offensive in Ukraine.”

Then-Rep. Matt Gaetz looks on during a House Rules Committee hearing at the U.S. Capitol Sept. 22, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE GAETZ KEEPERS — When it comes to DONALD TRUMP’s Cabinet nominees, the company line among Senate Republicans is this: The incoming president deserves deference in staffing his administration, and we will keep an “open mind” on his selections.

Behind the scenes, Senate Republicans are delivering a starkly different message when it comes to one particular nominee: AG-designate MATT GAETZ.

Numerous GOP members have indicated to Trump and his team that they believe Gaetz has little chance of being confirmed, according to multiple Senate Republican and Trump world sources. And they’re privately hoping Trump doesn’t make them walk the plank.

Knowing how toxic a character they are dealing with, Senate Republicans are worried about getting tarnished by the process. They fear that senators up for reelection in 2026 (looking at you, THOM TILLIS ) could face a MAGA primary challenge if they oppose his nomination — while possibly kissing their seats goodbye in a general election if they back him.

It’s not just the politically vulnerable who are fretting. There’s a fear that Trump is going to waste precious political capital trying to push Gaetz through when he could instead be working on advancing other, more feasible nominations — not to mention his governing agenda. Consider, they say, just how distracting Gaetz confirmation hearings will be as Trump moves to dismantle JOE BIDEN’s regulatory and legislative legacy.

That message, we’re told, has been delivered to the president-elect himself, his future White House chief of staff, SUSIE WILES, and to Gaetz’s unofficial “sherpa,” VP-elect JD VANCE. And it appears to be at least partially sinking in.

Trump has indicated that he thinks Gaetz “has less than even odds of being confirmed by the Senate,” the NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan reported last night. But Trump, they add, still wants a fight. He’s been asking Senate Republicans to give his pick “a shot” and argued that Gaetz is just the man to fix the Justice Department, Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) told reporters on the Hill yesterday.

“That was kind of the whole conversation,” Cramer said. “He’s the disrupter that the department needs. That's the bottom line. And he doesn’t know that anybody else really will be.”

Early this morning, notably, Trump’s most important ally, ELON MUSK, posted support for Gaetz on his X platform: “He is the JUDGE DREDD America needs to clean up a corrupt system and put powerful bad actors in prison. Gaetz will be our Hammer of Justice.” He added that the misconduct allegations amounted to “less than nothing.”

Despite the lobbying campaign, things are not looking peachy. Nearly a dozen Senate Republicans refused to say they’d back Gaetz when prodded by our colleagues Anthony Adragna and Ursula Perano last night. Those who are speaking aren’t being particularly kind.

“He’s got an uphill climb,” Sen. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) told reporters.

Republicans are also warning Trump that the fight will be messy. While incoming Senate Judiciary Chair CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) dodged questions about whether he’d try to obtain the unpublished House Ethics Committee report or speak to the women alleging misconduct, we’re told from GOP sources in the chamber that panel Republicans will likely need to do both.

The Judiciary Committee, after all, requires all nominees to undergo extensive FBI background investigations that would turn up anything in the House Ethics report, which is said to be damning — and then some. Republicans as well as Democrats will be scrutinizing whether Gaetz has paid women for sex, slept with a minor or used illegal drugs, as has been alleged against him.

Gaetz has firmly denied these allegations, casting them as part of a “deep state” plot against him, but he appears to be on a collision course with his accusers.

As we previewed in yesterday’s Playbook, attorney JOEL LEPPARD — who represents two women involved with Gaetz — made the media rounds yesterday and offered a hint of just what kind of salacious circus the confirmation process could become.

— Leppard said the women told investigators that Gaetz paid for them, per ABC News, “to travel to New York to have sex, watch his appearance on Fox News, and attend the Broadway show ‘Pretty Woman.’”

— The women, Leppard said, also “testified that Gaetz inquired in text messages about ‘party favors’ and ‘vitamins’ at upcoming parties, which was understood to be code for drugs,” per CBS News, which also reported that Leppard’s clients are “among at least four women who have told the [Ethics] committee they were paid to attend parties with drugs and sex where Gaetz was present.”

One moment of truth comes behind closed doors tomorrow, when Ethics Committee members meet to discuss and potentially vote on whether to release the report their staff has compiled. The panel’s top Republican, Rep. MICHAEL GUEST (Miss.), told Olivia Beavers he’d spoken over the weekend to Speaker MIKE JOHNSON , who is publicly pushing the panel to bury the report, but insisted the panel would act independently. His Democratic counterpart, Rep. SUSAN WILD (Pa.), wants the report out.

Even if the panel’s Republicans fall in line behind Johnson, the rising expectation on the Hill is that it will eventually leak anyway. So at some point before too long, Trump might have to ask himself if the exercise is even worth it: If Gaetz is going down, wouldn’t he rather install someone who can get confirmed quickly and get to work overhauling the department on Day 1?

Related reads: “How the Gaetz Ethics report could still come out if the panel blocks it,” by Katherine Tully-McManus and Daniella Diaz … “Court Filings Place Matt Gaetz at a Second Drug-Fueled Party in 2017,” by NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery … “This industry is high on the thought of Matt Gaetz as attorney general,” by Natalie Fertig

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels .

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PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Where the Trump Crowd Will Hang Out in DC,” by Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman: “This time around, the [Trump] hotel no longer carries Trump’s name — it’s become a Waldorf Astoria. So where will the incoming cabinet officials, White House staffers, and MAGA red-hatters hang out?”

Mentioned: Big Board … Cafe Milano … Capital Grille … Dirty Water … RPM Italian … Royal Sands Social Club … Shelly’s Back Room … and, yes, the Waldorf Astoria.

LONG LIVE THE MONOCLE — Meanwhile, the Senate-side dining scene is officially in upheaval: Two months after Bistro Bis announced it was closing its doors after 26 years, Charlie Palmer Steak said yesterday it is shuttering its Constitution Avenue location at month’s end after 22 years, per Sidman.

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On the Hill

The House will meet at 10 a.m. and will take up the Committing Leases for Energy Access Now (CLEAN) Act at noon. NIH Director MONICA BERTAGNOLLI will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10 a.m. FEMA Administrator DEANNE CRISWELL will testify before a Transportation & Infrastructure subcommittee at 10 a.m. and the Oversight Committee at 2 p.m.

The Senate is in. The Energy and Natural Resources at 9:30 a.m. will mark up many bills, including one about the old Robert F. Kennedy Stadium site, Roll Call’s Jim Saksa previews.

3 things to watch …

1. It’s awfully rare that the Senate finds itself holding roll call votes on motions to proceed to executive session from legislative session and vice versa, but that’s what the chamber spent most of last night doing. It was a Republican-led protest against the outgoing Democratic majority’s plans to keep confirming Biden judicial nominees for the remainder of the Congress (just as Republicans did for Trump’s nominees in late 2020). Between 6:30 and 10 p.m. last night, the Senate trudged through 10 of those roll calls, allowing Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER to tee up five more confirmation votes for later in the week (each will require two additional votes).
2. The incendiary politics of transgender rights are getting very personal very quickly in the House: Yesterday, Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) announced she was filing legislation that would ban people from using restrooms in the Capitol or House office buildings that do not correspond to their biological gender. That was a not-so-veiled provocation aimed at Rep.-elect SARAH McBRIDE (D-Del.), who will be the first transgender member of Congress. She responded by calling it “a blatant attempt from far right-wing extremists to distract from the fact that they have no real solutions to what Americans are facing,” as Nicholas Wu and Mia McCarthy report . What remains unclear is whether House GOP leaders will try to  incorporate Mace’s measure into the rules package for the 119th Congress.
3. There’s still no concession from Sen. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.), even after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court dealt him a blow yesterday by ordering undated mail ballots to be tossed after some county canvass boards ruled that they could be counted. Casey appears set on proceeding with the counting of mail and provisional ballots — and a likely recount — despite exceedingly slim mathematical odds 11 days after the AP called the election for Republican DAVID McCORMICK. Casey’s spokesperson said the senator “is fighting to ensure Pennsylvanians’ voices are heard and to protect their right to participate in our democracy.”

At the White House

Biden will take part in the second day of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro and have a working lunch with Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA, before returning to the White House at night.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will head to LA, from which she and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will travel to Kalaoa, Hawaii.

In Trump world

Trump will travel to Brownsville, Texas, for Musk's SpaceX launch, per NYT’s Michael Gold and Teddy Schleifer.

REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here.

TRANSITION LENSES

Sean Duffy asks a question on Capitol Hill in Washington. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP

THE FOX ADMINISTRATION — Trump announced that he’ll nominate former Rep. SEAN DUFFY (R-Wis.) as Transportation secretary, elevating the departing Fox Business host and “Real World” alum as the latest camera-ready pick for his administration. Duffy didn’t focus much on transportation while in Congress, Chris Marquette, Sam Ogozalek, Oriana Pawlyk and Cassandra Dumay report, but he has more recently criticized electric vehicles on air and lobbied for corporate transportation clients.

At DOT, Duffy would be in charge of the ongoing disbursal of billions of dollars from the bipartisan infrastructure law, unless Republicans undo that. Then there’s the intrigue around the FAA, which has been battling with Musk over SpaceX. Musk could try to go after the regulator, where leader MIKE WHITAKER still has four years in his term, Oriana reports . But the FAA also has some muscle: “Nearly a century’s worth of laws have given the agency ultimate authority over who can use the nation’s skies, and it generally commands respect on Capitol Hill.”

More top reads:

• Proxy fight: Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report that KASH PATEL and MIKE ROGERS are the top contenders for FBI director, pitting burn-it-down MAGA loyalists against establishment Republicans. (Of course, either would require CHRISTOPHER WRAY’s departure.)
• Treasury island: HOWARD LUTNICK is considered out of the running for Treasury secretary, Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin, Nancy Cook, Joshua Green and Annmarie Hordern report, with KEVIN WARSH, SCOTT BESSENT and others in the mix. As Sam Sutton puts it, Treasury is one agency Trump is less willing to upend because he’s “hypersensitive to the stock market and interest rates.” One potential perk for Bessent and other ultra-wealthy contenders: a “sweet tax break” if they serve, Brian Faler notes.
• The MAHA agenda: Protect Our Care has launched a new “war room” to try to stop ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. from being confirmed as HHS secretary by pressuring GOP senators, Megan Messerly reports. If Kennedy gets through, he may discover that his mission to make food more healthful could be hampered by the FDA's limited food budget, NBC’s Berkeley Lovelace Jr. reports.

VALLEY TALK

ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — In a major decision, the Justice Department plans to seek antitrust redress by getting a judge to force Google to sell off Chrome, Bloomberg’s Leah Nylen and Josh Sisco scooped. That would be the government’s most aggressive effort to break up a tech behemoth in decades.

POLICY CORNER

Donald Trump sits down for a conversation with Tucker Carlson during his Live Tour at the Desert Diamond Arena on Oct. 31, 2024, in Phoenix, Arizona. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

THE GOP’S ECON PLANS — As Republicans gear up for a Washington trifecta, their economic policy priorities are a mixture of the GOP standards (cutting taxes, spending and regulations) and newer, Trump-era ideas that would have been shocking a decade ago. Lawmakers and Trump aides, for instance, have started to talk about imposing new work requirements and spending limits on safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP, WaPo’s Jacob Bogage, Jeff Stein and Dan Diamond report, as a way to pay for tax-cut extensions.

Trump’s unorthodox brew of other potential plans could shake up economic policy, Victoria Guida, Benjamin Guggenheim and Katy O’Donnell write this morning. Congress hasn’t passed a bill imposing higher tariffs since 1930, for instance. Ending taxes on tips will likely make it into the big GOP tax bill. A massive government reserve of Bitcoin is on the table. And some Republicans want to sell off federal lands for new homes, tackling the housing crisis.

More top reads:

• Immigration files: As Trump gears up a mass deportation program, NYT’s Charlie Savage and Michael Gold report that his team intends to try to end birthright citizenship by not giving passports to native-born children of undocumented immigrants.
• Heads up: Two key inspectors general, ODNI’s THOMAS MONHEIM and CIA’s ROBIN ASHTON, are departing their government watchdog posts ahead of Trump’s arrival, the Project on Government Oversight’s Nick Schwellenbach reports.
• Climate files: “These are the environmental rules that will likely outlive Trump,” by WaPo’s Nicolás Rivero

ALL POLITICS

PULL UP A CHAIR — MARTIN O’MALLEY became the first contender in the race to be the next DNC chair, NYT’s Reid Epstein scooped. The Social Security commissioner, who’ll leave his post next week, said Dems need to be clear-eyed and focus on economic issues. And KEN MARTIN, leader of the Minnesota Democrats, joined the race this morning, Epstein reports.

EVERYTHING’S COMING UP BANNON — Freshly out of jail, STEVE BANNON’s other trial (over the “Build the Wall” charity) was delayed yesterday to February, per Erica Orden. In a big new feature, NY Mag’s Andrew Rice reports he’s now ready for political warfare, saying that AG MERRICK GARLAND and special counsel JACK SMITH should be imprisoned: “Dude, this ain’t morning in America.”

PRIMARY COLORS — Arizona Secretary of State ADRIAN FONTES is considering primarying Gov. KATIE HOBBS in 2026, Megan Messerly reports . That would be a striking intraparty fight amid some Democrats’ concerns that Hobbs is too politically weak to win reelection.

WHAT LISA MURKOWSKI IS WATCHING — The referendum to repeal Alaska’s open primaries and ranked-choice voting system has now fallen behind by fewer than 200 votes. More from the Anchorage Daily News

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THE WHITE HOUSE

IT’S OFFICIAL — The White House asked Congress to pass $100 billion in emergency funding to respond to devastating hurricanes and other natural disasters, Jennifer Scholtes reports.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

Argentina's President Javier Milei delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos on January 17, 2024. | Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

GETTING READY FOR JANUARY — At the G20, world leaders aren’t talking much about Trump by name, Lauren Egan, Eric Bazail-Eimil, Sam Blewett, Clea Caulcutt and Joe Stanley-Smith report from Rio. But many of them are concerned about his return, which looms over the gathering. And around the world, various leaders are starting to appeal more directly to the president-elect:

Argentina: President JAVIER MILEI, a big Trump ally, wants the U.S. to speed up a multibillion-dollar International Monetary Fund loan for him to execute his massive austerity program, WSJ’s Ryan Dubé reports. Or as Trump put it, “Make Argentina Great Again.”

Venezuela: From a secret hiding spot in total isolation, opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO tells NYT’s Julie Turkewitz that Venezuela could give Trump “an enormous foreign policy victory in the very, very short term.” The conservative “Iron Lady” says Trump can help pressure President NICOLÁS MADURO out of office.

Taiwan: Fearing China, Taipei has reasons to worry about Trump’s level of support, thanks to tariffs and his frustration with Taiwan’s military spending, WSJ’s Joyu Wang reports. But its leaders say they’re reassured by his selection of China hawks for top foreign-policy posts.

France: President EMMANUEL MACRON is poised to invite Trump and Musk to an artificial intelligence summit in Paris in February, CNN’s Kayla Tausche reports.

More top reads:

• Elsewhere in Rio: Biden announced the U.S. will contribute a record $4 billion to a World Bank fund for poor countries, per Reuters’ David Lawder and Andrea Shalal. And though he accidentally missed the family photo, Biden also bid a wistful farewell to world leaders — along with the country’s post-World War II foreign policy that’s fading away, WSJ’s Annie Linskey and Samantha Pearson note.
• Middle East latest: Lebanon and Hezbollah have largely agreed to the U.S. proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, a Lebanese official told Reuters’ Laila Bassam. Meanwhile, the U.S. slapped sanctions on illegal Israeli settlement groups in the West Bank, per AP’s Fatima Hussein and Julia Frankel.

MEDIAWATCH

HOW THE WORLD WORKS NOW — A big new Pew study finds that more than one-third of young Americans get news from social media influencers, who overall lean slightly to the right.

ONE TO WATCH — “Court appears unlikely to spare former Fox News reporter in contempt fight,” by Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney: “The case involving reporter CATH