CRUISIN’ FOR A BRUISIN’: Few lawmakers know the fickle nature of California politics better than state Sen. Josh Newman. The Orange County legislator is on the verge of losing his reelection bid to former Republican Assemblymember Steven Choi after a powerful labor union spent millions on a campaign to unseat him. This would mark Newman’s second electoral defeat as a sitting lawmaker. He made it to Sacramento in 2016 on the strength of a quirky underdog campaign that featured a bear suit, a blimp and signs referencing “Seinfeld.” But two years later, voters booted him from office in a recall election after he voted for a 2017 gas tax increase championed by former Gov. Jerry Brown. In 2020, Newman managed to make it back to the Capitol, where he chairs the Senate Education Committee — only to face political headwinds once again. AFSCME 3299 — which represents 30,000 University of California employees — spent big against Newman after he voted against a bill that would’ve amended the state constitution to protect UC worker rights. The union’s retribution campaign continued into the general election, even though Newman was up against a Republican. Choi has maintained a decent-sized lead, with Target Book reporting today Newman would need 75 percent of the remaining 13,000 votes to close the gap.
“I've learned to make a distinction, a conscious distinction, between politics and public service,” Newman told Playbook. “I still believe that public service is a truly noble, worthwhile calling, but politics is a brutal business.” Newman wasn’t the pivotal vote on the gas tax or the UC bill. But he represents a purple district that would be tough for any Democrat to hold onto, making him an easy target for groups seeking to prove a larger point to the Legislature.
“It's challenging in politics, and in California politics especially, to be a centrist these days,” Newman said. “As my current situation illustrates, you're vulnerable from both the right and the left.” His likely defeat also stings for the California Democratic Party, which spent more than $3.8 million to defend him, knowing he was vulnerable. (Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire hasn’t quite come to grips with the situation, saying in a statement to Playbook, “As we know, patience is a virtue and democracy takes time. We’re just not there yet.”) Choi claimed victory in his statement, attributing his likely win to trust he had built with voters during his time in public office.
“I am thrilled the community that I have served and represented for over 20 years appears to have elected me to the Senate, flipping a Democrat seat to Republican,” he said, adding, “I am eager to get to work to fight against Big Government and serve the People in Sacramento.”
Newman’s district was especially challenging this cycle, as the redistricting commission’s most recent map drew him into a new area with voters who were unfamiliar with him. Given that disadvantage, some of his supporters think AFSCME’s efforts may have been just enough to drag him down. State Sen. Steve Glazer said his Democratic colleagues are “furious” with the union and that AFSCME is “fully to blame” if Newman loses. “It wasn't just a leadership thing,” Glazer said. “The whole caucus contributed individually to supporting Senator Newman. He's a very thoughtful member of the caucus, and the caucus was fully behind him. So this union has created a huge credibility problem for themselves." But Newman has staged a comeback before. If he loses, would he run again?
The senator wouldn’t go into specifics, but he said he’d “probably consider figuring out one way or the other how to keep contributing.” “I'll take some time to kind of process this experience and that outcome,” Newman said. “But I will say, I'm not sure that I enjoy politics as currently practiced.” — with help from Tyler Katzenberger IT’S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
| 
