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| By Matt Friedman |
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Good Thursday morning! New Jersey Democrats have a lot to discuss over how Kamala Harris only carried New Jersey over Donald Trump by six points. But was this an anomaly, or is New Jersey Democrats’ power really slipping? The problem for Democrats is there’s so many mixed signals about what happened that you can read it any way you want to. First, the undisputed and probably most important fact: Voters in New Jersey’s most heavily-HIspanic areas went for Trump by a greater margin than in 2020 or 2016. That’s a big part of why you saw Passaic County go for Trump, and Harris’ margin in Hudson County far lower than what Democrats would normally expect. As Hudson County Republican Chair Jose Arango said, these voters were likely driven by issues like inflation, which is especially tough in places like Hudson County with astronomical costs of living — especially for housing. But Democrats at the same time didn’t see widespread down-ballot losses, and that was true not just in congressional districts protected by gerrymandering. Take Cumberland County, which is Trump land, where the notoriously dysfunctional Democrats successfully defended their county clerk seat and actually flipped a county commissioner seat. It’s also important to note that while Trump’s margin was much closer, his raw number of votes in New Jersey only slightly increased from 2020 to 2024, while Harris received hundreds of thousands fewer votes than Biden. While you can point to voter enthusiasm as part of the problem — and I’m sure it is — there’s also likely a purely practical reason. In 2020, all registered voters received mail-in ballots. While Democrats have built a robust program for it, that didn’t happen in 2024. And it likely cost them some support from low-propensity voters. At the same time, Republicans embraced the Democratic-driven 2021 law that allowed them to vote in person. Low-propensity voters came out
for Trump regardless. TIPS? FEEDBACK Email me at mfriedman@politico.com. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Even a sociopathic mobster like Tony Soprano was able to find some solace in feeding his ducks. And now, we can’t even have damn bird feeders anymore,” she said.” — Assemblymember Dawn Fantasia on an anti-bear feeding bill that would require bird feeders to be at least 10 feet off the ground for more than half the year, and to be brought inside at night. HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Joey Gurrentz, Melissa Hayes, Matthew Montekio, Dan Zwillenberg WHERE’S MURPHY? In Atlantic City for a 12:15 p.m. speech at the League
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GEORGE III — “Justice Department declined to prosecute George Norcross in 2023 based on ‘available’ evidence, court filings show,” by The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Andrew Seidman and Jeremy Roebuck: “Federal authorities in Philadelphia listened in on the phone calls of George Norcross, his brother Philip, and others for months in 2016 before ultimately deciding years later that they did not have a case against the Democratic power broker. ‘Based upon review of the available admissible evidence, the applicable law, the probability of a successful trial and the prosecution standards of the office, it is our opinion the matter should not be the subject of a federal prosecution,’ ’Assistant U.S. Attorney K.T. Newton wrote in an April 2023 letter to FBI Special Agent Stephen Rich. The letter, made public in a court filing Wednesday, cited the office’s case
file in the matter of ‘United States v. George Norcross.’ But in a twist, just days before Newton wrote the letter, prosecutors in the New Jersey Attorney General’s Office began presenting their own case against Norcross to a grand jury, according to court records. Norcross and five codefendants have since been charged with racketeering and other crimes. Those new details on the yearslong investigation into Norcross emerged for the first time Wednesday in a court filing.”
OH BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU JOB? — Former Fulop aide sues after being fired for supporting GOP sister's candidacy, by POLITICO’s Daniel Han: A former aide to Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is suing the mayor and top city officials after being fired for supporting his Republican sister’s campaign for secretary of state in Missouri. The lawsuit from the former aide, Jonathan Gomez Noriega, accuses Fulop of wrongful termination, retaliation and discrimination. Fulop fired Gomez Noriega after it was revealed that he donated to his sister, Valentina Gomez, in her bid for elected office. Valentina Gomez — who lost the primary election for secretary of state — ran as an anti-LGBTQ+ candidate, burning LGBTQ+-themed books with flamethrowers and using pejorative slurs to describe the LGBTQ+ community. The lawsuit claims
that Fulop fired Gomez Noriega to boost Fulop’s gubernatorial prospects. … "Jonathan was an at-will employee, and part of his responsibilities were focused on the LGBTQ Community along with diversity and inclusion," Fulop's office said in a statement. EDUCATION — “NJ districts defend policies state says would 'out' transgender students to parents,” by The Record’s Mary Ann Koruth: “Lawyers for four school districts argued before a state appeals court panel Tuesday that new district policies requiring school officials to inform parents of transgender students who out themselves in school do not violate the state's Law Against Discrimination, as Attorney General Matthew Platkin's office says they do. A panel of three judges listened to arguments from attorneys defending the four school districts and attorneys representing the state and the American Civil Liberties Union. The state Attorney General's Office sued Hanover Township in Morris County and three Monmouth County school districts last year. … The judges also raised a key question: what a school
district that challenges the transgender guidance would do if a student told them they were afraid for their safety in their home, and requested that their families not be notified of their gender expression when in school. The district would then begin a process to determine whether the child's concern is ‘bona fide,’ responded attorneys for the Monmouth County school districts. The judges asked what the criteria are for determining whether a complaint is bona fide.” —“NJ records $238M in cannabis sales during Q2” —“Urgency over transit projects amid funding uncertainty” —“Baraka releases sweeping economic platform as governor’s race heats up” —“Sweeney quietly flexes muscles on home turf AC” —“Are N.J. schools legally responsible for sexual abuse by teachers? Court rules in 2 cases” —“Auth plays ‘the long game’ with endorsement of Bramnick”
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A SWING AND A MISS — New Jersey swung dramatically towards Trump, but mixed data muddle the lesson for Democrats, by POLITICO’s Matt Friedman and Ry Rivard: New Jersey has more than 900,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, but Kamala Harris carried it by only about 250,000 votes — a startling result that caused pundits around the country to gape at a potential political realignment. … But while New Jersey Democrats ended election night in shock, they’ve found it difficult to draw an overarching lesson on whether 2024 was a freak occurrence or a sign that their long-established power in the Garden State is starting to slip. “We should learn from our failures running against President Trump, but we should not forget that his appeal has always been limited to his own elections,” Democratic strategist Dan
Bryan, a longtime adviser to Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, said in a text message. The problem is that Democrats are confronted with mixed messages from 2024 and a variety of trends leading up to it.
WHOA, NELLIE — “Nellie Pou, Trump-district congresswoman,” by New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox: “When Democrats chose State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) as a last-minute replacement for the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) three months ago, they did so under the assumption that Pou, a longtime legislator not known for making waves, would be able to have a relatively peaceful tenure in Congress. … That’s not how it ended up working out. According to results that are set to be finalized today, Donald Trump carried the 9th District by 1.2 percentage points, 49.1% to 47.9% – a genuinely shocking result that represents a 20-point swing against Democrats compared to 2020, when Joe Biden won the Passaic and Bergen County-based district 59% to 40%. Fueled by
massive gains among Hispanic voters, Trump won some towns, like Fairview, Kearny, and Passaic, that hadn’t gone red in decades. … Pou now enters Washington as something neither she nor anyone else expected her to be: a swing-district congresswoman. And with that title comes a host of political challenges that Pou will now have to navigate as she settles into her seat and prepares for her first re-election campaign in 2026.” —“Gottheimer pledges to spend $2 million to make Passaic blue again” —“'They can kill your kid': Manalapan mom fears no punishment after son's Navy SEALs death” —“Pallone pledges to advance environmental agenda ‘regardless’ of Trump”
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| LOCAL | |
PULLING A FINGER — “Lakewood Schools state monitor suddenly resigns; 2nd monitor in months to quit,” by The Asbury Park Press’ Joe Strupp: “In a surprise move, one of the two state monitors who was recently appointed to examine Lakewood Schools’ financial situation as part of a state loan review has resigned. The move marks the second time in less than three months that a state monitor has resigned in Lakewood and comes as the school board is seeking another multi-million-dollar state loan. Kelvin Smith, who was appointed by the Department of Education in July 2024 and signed a contract to serve through August 2025, submitted a letter of resignation to the state on Tuesday citing a decision to ‘take a break from work and enjoy my retirement for a while.’ … Smith's and [Louise] Davis's
appointments had sparked opposition from several members of the Lakewood Board of Education, who had wanted to keep former state monitor Robert Finger, who had been hired in December 2023 and was contracted to serve until December 2024. Finger resigned at the end of August and has offered no reason for his departure.”
OLIVER! — “Vote to name N.J. school after top politician violated state ethics code, panel says,” by NJ Advance Media’s Adam Clark: “The chief of staff for New Jersey’s former lieutenant governor violated the state ethics code by using her local board of education seat to help rename a school after her boss, according to a state ethics panel. Terry Swanson-Tucker was president of East Orange’s Board of Education on Dec. 11, 2018, when she cast two votes to help put then-Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver’s name on a $41 million elementary school that was under construction. The problem? Oliver was the same person who hired Swanson-Tucker for the $150,000 chief of staff job she held at the time. … ‘There is no question that (Swanson-Tucker) had a conflict of interest that would require
disqualification of voting,’ the School Ethics Commission wrote in a decision earlier this year. … The nine-member ethics panel suggested punishing Swanson-Tucker, who departed the school board in 2023, with a censure.” HOLD ON CAULFIELD — “Clark mayor plea agreement pushed to January due to judge’s illness,” by New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein: “Indicted Clark Mayor Sal Bonaccorso will remain in office until at least next year and take the oath of office for a seventh term after a Superior Court Judge today delayed a hearing until January 10. Bonaccorso was scheduled to appear before Judge Regina Caulfield today to accept Bonaccorso’s plea, but she called in sick. Instead, Assignment Judge Lisa Miralles Walsh presided over a conference, but was unwilling to step in late and replace Caulfield on the plea. … This is the latest delay in a years-long investigation that led to charges against Bonaccorso last November for using township property and employees to run his landscaping business and filing forged permit
applications in about two dozen towns to remove underground oil storage tanks. He also faces official misconduct charges – and a five-year minimum state prison sentence — for running a tank removal business out of the mayor’s office.”
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Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now. | | | | | NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS — “List of Monmouth County pro-Trump businesses deleted amid controversy,” by Patch’s Carly Baldwin: “Some Monmouth County residents created a list of local businesses where the owners or management support President-elect Donald Trump, so residents can avoid shopping at those businesses. The list, which was originally drafted as a public spreadsheet and shared, has since been deleted, said state Sen. Vin Gopal, a Democrat who represents the Eatontown-Ocean Township area. The discussion started last weekend on a Facebook group called Indivisible Blue Two Rivers, which has now been deleted. A discussion thread was started that began ‘MAGA local businesses to avoid,’ according to screenshots from the page. Residents said they wanted to know which Monmouth County businesses
support Trump or ‘blast FOX or alt-right radio.’” —“Solomon: Crackdown on payroll tax delivered $103M to the Jersey City Public Schools” —“Three Hoboken councilmembers call out Bhalla administration, urge immediate action on park safety” —“Millburn, NJ was ordered to build affordable housing and didn't. It's back in court” —“Officer out due to job-related PTSD sues Hackensack, police officials for discrimination” —“[Clifton] pays $2.85M in ‘completely preventable’ death of pedestrian hit by police car” —“In effort to retain police officers, Clifton OKs salary increase for new hires” —“[Paterson] cops brutally beat man recovering from brain surgery, lawsuit says” —“Four private schools and 2,500 students approved in Jackson for growing Orthodox community” —“Another 14-year-old has been charged with starting a forest fire in [Burlington County]” —Carstarphen: “What does a new Trump term mean for cities like Camden?” —“[Long Branch] appoints lifelong resident to fill vacant council seat”
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EVERYTHING ELSE | |
RADIOACTIVE CORPORATE CULTURE — “New legal claims offer ‘warning signs’ about energy firm Holtec, critics say,” by Jeff Pillets for New Jersey Monitor: “New legal claims lodged in recent weeks offer what critics say are disturbing insights into Holtec, the Camden-based company pushing controversial atomic power projects across the United States. A lawsuit filed by Holtec in October claims two senior company executives embezzled hundreds of thousands from the firm in a ‘rogue’ operation that resulted in $65 million in investment losses. The alleged scheme, plotted by Holtec’s former chief finance officer and head corporate counsel, landed the company in a tax break scandal and criminal investigation that ended in a $5 million fine and other penalties brought by the New Jersey Attorney General, the lawsuit claims. The
executives even steered Holtec CEO Kris Singh into pouring millions of the firm’s money into a string of multinational cannabis companies, according to documents filed with the suit in Superior Court. Nuclear power watchdogs say the alleged conduct laid out in the lawsuit is only the latest red flag about Holtec’s corporate ethics as it pursues untested nuclear initiatives using billions in taxpayer subsidies”
—“[Lung] cancer causes the most NJ deaths — and why are more Black residents dying of it?” —“Lakewood Country Club Wildfire contained; firefighters to remain on scene”
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