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Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid falls to the ice in front of Minnesota Wild defenceman Jake Middleton and Jared Spurgeon at Rogers Place in Edmonton on Dec.8, 2023. Photo by Shaughn Butts/Postmedia

• The Oilers called up forward Drake Caggiula from Bakersfield (AHL) on Thursday morning

• One day after sending down defenceman Josh Brown to Bakersfield, the Oilers called the D-man back up on Thursday. Brown isn't expected to be in the lineup tonight against Minnesota

• Oilers forward Zach Hyman didn't play in the third period of Monday's game against Ottawa and won't play tonight

• Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have scored at least three points each in the same game 43 different times. The Oilers are 43-0 when that occurs

• Kasperi Kapanen, who the Oilers claimed off waivers earlier this week from St. Louis will make his debut tonight against Minnesota

• Stuart Skinner is slated to start between the pipes tonight for the Oilers, while the Wild will counter with Marc-Andre Fleury

Edmonton Oilers lineup

Podkolzin – McDavid – Draisaitl
Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Caggiula – Ryan – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Emberson

Dermott – Stecher

Skinner
Pickard

Minnesota WIld lineup

 Kaprizov – Eriksson Ek – Boldy

Johansson – Rossi – Hartman

Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin

Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Jones

Middleton – Faber

Brodin – Spurgeon

Chisholm – Bogosian

Fleury
 Gustavsson

By the numbers

Edmonton Oilers

Power Play — 17.3% (19th)
Penalty Kill — 68.6% (30th)
Faceoffs — 53.1% (5th)
Goals For avg — 2.75 (20th)
Goals Against avg — 3.1 (15th)

Minnesota Wild

Power Play — 20% (T13th)
Penalty Kill — 76.2% (24th)
Faceoffs — 48.1% (T24th)
Goals For avg — 3.39 (T9th)
Goals Against avg — 2.33 (1st)

OILERS PODKOLZIN GETS STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM CAPTAIN MCDAVID

GAME DAY: EDMONTON OILERS LOOK TO HANG ONTO WILDCARD SPOT AGAINST WILD

Forwards

1. Leon Draisaitl: 20 GP, 14, 13 A, 27 PTS

2. Connor McDavid: 17 GP, 9G, 15 A, 24 PTS

3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 20 GP, 2 G, 7 A, 9 PTS

4. Zach Hyman: 20 GP, 3 G, 5 A, 8 PTS

5. Mattias Janmark: 20 GP, 1G, 7 A, 8 PTS

Defenceman

1. Evan Bouchard: 20 GP, 5 G, 8 A, 13 PTS

2. Mattias Ekholm: 20 GP, 4G, 6A, 10 PTS

3. Darnell Nurse: 18 GP, 2 G, 7 A, 9 PTS

4. Brett Kulak: 20 GP, 4G, 4 A, 8 PTS

Goalie

1. Stuart Skinner: 13 GP, 6-5-2, .881 SV%, 3.18 GAA
2. Calvin Pickard: 8 GP, 4-3--0, 0.893 SV%, 2.44 GAA

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Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid celebrates his 1000th point, against the Nashville Predators during second period NHL action in Edmonton on Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024.

Jason Franson /THE CANADIAN PRESS

By Bruce McCurdy

It’s been six weeks since the NHL season began for the Edmonton Oilers, and already they’ve hit the 20-game mark. It was an underwhelming first quarter for the preseason favourite with a decidedly mediocre 10-8-2 record and a .550 points percentage in what is currently a .551 league. As might be expected, that percentage lands them right in the middle of the pack of the Western Conference, currently in a wild card spot but hardly comfortable.

The Oilers remain underwater by one important measure, goal differential, having allowed 7 goals more than they’ve allowed with 55 for, 62 against. If goals are the primary currency, they’re lucky to be as high in the standings as they are.

Split those 20 games into distinct 10-game segments, though, and a different picture emerges. The Oilers were brutal in the opening set, and stabilized all the way to roughly average or should I say “expected” in the more recent 10. The effect on the season as a whole is a regression towards the mean, even as the local club has yet to to fully erase the effects of that bad start. That either takes time or a hell of a hot streak, as was proven last season:

Season to date by segment

2023-24

Games 1 – 10: 2-7-1, .250 | 27 GF, 41 GA | 334 SF, 302 SA | .945 PDO
Games 11-20: 5-5-0, .500 | 39 GF, 33 GA | 328 SF, 272 SA | .998 PDO
Games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 371 SF, 271 SA | .993 PDO
Games 31-40: 10-0-0, 1.000 | 37 GF, 16 GA | 340 SF, 278 SA | 1.051 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 310 SF, 284 SA | 1.025 PDO
Games 51-60: 7-2-1, .750 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 324 SF, 286 SA | 1.013 PDO
Games 61-70: 5-3-2, .600 | 38 GF, 30 GA | 364 SF, 294 SA | 1.002 PDO
Games 71-80: 6-2-2, .700 | 39 GF, 23 GA | 341 SF, 268 SA | 1.029 PDO

2024-25

Games 1 – 10: 4-5-1, .450 | 22 GF, 35 GA | 343 SF, 261 SA | .930 PDO
Games 11-20: 6-3-1, .650 | 33 GF, 27 GA | 318 SF, 249 SA | .995 PDO

As discussed in our previous 10-game review, the barometer for success or failure in any set of games is the last figure shown. PDO is simply the sum of shooting and save percentages. It was historically terrible in the first 10 games, but normalized to near the midpoint of 1.000 in the second.

As they did consistently all of last season, the current Oilers significantly outshot their opponents in each group of games, which reflects the quality of the team; it follows that by merely breaking even on the percentages they will outscore their opponents. Which they did in the more recent segment by 33 goals to 27 after an excruciating and barely explicable 22-35 deficit in the opening run.

11 more goals scored, 8 fewer allowed. Both numbers needed drastic improvement, and these results represent a very significant step in that direction.