|
| | | |  |
| By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
 U.S. allies in Europe, already bracing for new tensions with Washington under President-elect Donald Trump, are in an awkward spot now. | Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images
| With help from Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Trump world has a message for the International Criminal Court: Brace for impact. Top Republican officials lashed out at the ICC with a mixture of fury and threats after it issued arrest warrants today for top Israeli officials over the war in Gaza, giving clear indications that DONALD TRUMP will play hardball with the global court once he enters office. “The ICC has no credibility and these allegations have been refuted by the U.S. government,” said Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), Trump’s incoming national security adviser, in a post on X. “Israel has lawfully defended its people & borders from genocidal terrorists. You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January.” Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) lashed out in a post of his own at the ICC and its top prosecutor, KARIM KHAN. “The ICC is a kangaroo court and Karim Khan is a deranged fanatic. Woe to him and anyone who tries to enforce these outlaw warrants,” he said. While the U.S. isn't a party to the ICC, it has at times partnered with the international tribunal to investigate war crimes around the world. So what would Trump’s reaction to the ICC look like once he’s in office? While Trump himself hasn’t (yet) responded to the ICC news, Republicans have plans.
U.S. cooperation on ICC investigations into Russian war crimes in Ukraine, for example, may come to a screeching halt. “While I supported the work the ICC was doing to prosecute Putin for his war crimes in Ukraine, I can no longer support an organization that has blatantly chosen to disregard its mandate,” said Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the incoming chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Then, expect sanctions. Risch has pushed to advance sanctions against ICC officials in response to the court’s decision to advance cases against Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and former Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT. That bill has turned into a huge political headache and source of fierce impasse and infighting within the SFRC between Democrats and Republicans. “His bill will absolutely be a priority next Congress if Biden or Schumer don’t act sooner,” a Republican Senate aide said, referring to Democratic Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER. The aide was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. U.S. allies in Europe, already bracing for new tensions with Washington under Trump, are also in an awkward spot now. The ICC indictments against Netanyahu and Gallant mean that both of them could face arrest if they travel to any of the 120 countries party to the founding treaty of the ICC. (Israel also isn’t a member). That includes key U.S. allies such as the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands, where the ICC is headquartered. Already, the Dutch government said it would adhere to the ICC ruling and arrest Israeli officials if they came to the Netherlands. This could lead to even more tensions between Washington and its European allies once Trump enters office, as if there weren’t already enough.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | NOT AN ICBM AFTER ALL: Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN confirmed that its military fired a new ballistic missile against Ukraine for the very first time, rebutting claims from Kyiv they had used an intercontinental ballistic missile. On state television, Putin later said that the strike was in response to the U.S. and U.K. decisions to lift usage restrictions on the use of donated missiles they’ve provided. Russia had tested a new kind of hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile against a Ukrainian military facility, he said, warning that the war “has acquired elements of a global character.” Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters today that the weapon Russia fired was indeed an experimental medium-range ballistic missile. She also confirmed reports that Russia had given the U.S. advanced notice it was going to fire the new missile. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially claimed that the missile, which was part of a volley of strikes against the city of Dnipro, belonged to a new class of missile not used before through the course of the war. “All the parameters — speed, altitude — match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile,” he said. “All expert evaluations are underway.” Russia initially evaded talk of the strike — though not in the slickest way. Foreign Ministry spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA was phoned during a live briefing and told not to comment on the reports; the contents of the call were audible from the microphone. DON’T MESS WITH TEXAS: Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT is positioning himself as the country’s most prominent state-level China hawk, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. In a letter published today, Abbott barred state agencies from making “any new investments of state funds in China” and directed them to “divest at the first available opportunity” any state cash currently in Chinese investment funds. That aims to reduce “instability and financial risk” linked to China’s “belligerent actions across the Southeastern Pacific region and the world,” Abbott said in a statement. That follows a trio of China-targeted executive orders Abbott signed this week preventing “transnational repression” of Texans, hardening the state’s information security systems from Chinese hackers and protecting “critical infrastructure” from cyberattacks. They’re the latest in a series of measures by states over the past two years to confront concerns about the security and economic risks posed by rising U.S.-China tensions. Those include state bans on land sales to Chinese entities and legislation requiring state-level “stress tests” to assess the local impact of war across the Taiwan Strait. State pension fund managers have begun pulling their cash from Chinese investment funds to avoid possible losses in the event of conflict with Beijing over Taiwan or in the South China Sea. A CONSERVATIVE RUSSIA STRATEGY: A group of conservative policymakers and former Trump administration officials is making the case that any strategy to counter Russia has to go beyond the war in Ukraine. In a collection of essays prepared by the McCain Institute and the conservative Vandenberg Coalition think tank, the eight authors argue the U.S. needs to, among other things, address Russian cyberattacks; thwart Russian and Chinese influence in Latin American and other regions; shift existing sanctions policy to a more comprehensive approach; improve U.S. defensive capabilities; and ensure Russia faces lasting consequences for invading Ukraine. The authors include former Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative for North Korea STEPHEN BIEGUN, former Trump national security council senior director for resilience BRIAN CAVANAUGH, former State Department director of policy planning staff PETER BERKOWITZ and retired Rear Adm. MARK MONTGOMERY. The essays give a window into the menu of options before the incoming Trump administration as it seeks to counter Russia and project American strength around the world. And it highlights some of the policy considerations in the minds of potential Trump appointees, including Cavanaugh, who could be up for jobs in the next administration. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | | |   | | | | | GOP GABBARD CAT FIGHT: Allies of former Hawaii member of Congress TULSI GABBARD are rushing to her defense after former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY assailed Trump’s nominee to be director of national intelligence earlier this week. Trump’s incoming communications director STEVEN CHEUNG shared a post from Republican strategist ANDREW SURABIAN on Wednesday slamming Haley for calling Gabbard “a Russian, Iranian, Syrian, Chinese sympathizer.” “Tulsi Gabbard is a combat veteran who saw the devastation caused by [the] stupid wars championed by Nikki Haley firsthand. Tulsi served our country in the Army with honor,” Surabian wrote. “The only people Nikki Haley ever served are the donors & lobbyists who funded her failed political career.” The pile-on on Haley, which included responses from Trump supporters like former Fox News host MEGYN KELLY, speaks to the continued bad blood between the Haley and Trump camps and to the unease even some Republicans feel about Gabbard’s opinions about U.S. adversaries like Russia, China and Iran. WHITAKER WHO? Trump’s pick to be the U.S. ambassador to NATO, former Acting Attorney General MATTHEW WHITAKER, is unknown in Brussels. But NATO officials are just glad it isn’t worse, as Robbie and our own JACK DETSCH report. Whitaker, a Trump loyalist, has no foreign policy experience. But current and former NATO officials say they’re relieved Trump actually will name an ambassador to the alliance. And the relationship might work to the alliance’s advantage. “If we are forced to pick, we’ll take the guy who doesn’t know much about NATO but Trump will actually pick up the phone for,” said one European official. “We’ll take what we can get.”
|
| | | Democracy is facing a multi-front attack on nearly every continent. At the Halifax International Security Forum, senior military officers and thought leaders will have to choose whether to stand together against these challenges or go down the path of division. Follow the proceedings here. | | | | | | |
|
CHINA COMMITTEE CAMERA QUERIES: A Chinese surveillance giant banned for alleged human rights abuses may have found a lucrative backdoor into the U.S. market — and the House’s top China hawks say it's hiding in plain sight, as we reported in Morning Cybersecurity this morning (for Pros!). In a letter to FCC Chair JESSICA ROSENWORCEL shared first with Robbie, House China committee leaders JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.) and RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) suggest Zhejiang Dahua Technology attempted a calculated maneuver to potentially skirt federal blacklists — and they now want a full accounting of it. The lawmakers argue in the letter that Dahua's recent sale of its U.S. subsidiary to Luminys Systems (a unit of Taiwan-headquartered company Foxlink) represents a sophisticated attempt to circumvent U.S. federal blacklists that bar the company from selling surveillance equipment to U.S. government agencies. Dahua, a surveillance tech giant, was blacklisted for its role in Xinjiang's human rights abuses. The FCC wields significant power to dismantle this sort of alleged corporate shell. With the ability to revoke equipment authorizations, block product importation and levy massive fines, the agency could effectively neutralize Dahua's alleged attempted end-run. Dahua’s corporate headquarters did not respond to a request for comment.
| |
|
HEGSETH’S HILL ADVENTURES: Defense Secretary nominee PETE HEGSETH is on Capitol Hill today, as he seeks to reassure lawmakers that he is the right man to lead the nation’s armed forces. Some lawmakers have been wary of Hegseth’s inexperience and the allegations against him of sexual harassment and assault. The Fox News host and veteran met with the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), today, along with other key Senate Republicans. Vice President-elect JD VANCE accompanied Hegseth to the meetings. But his jaunt to the Capitol follows the release of police records around a 2017 incident where Hegseth was accused of sexually assaulting a woman at a California hotel. Asked about the accusation on Capitol Hill, Hegseth told reporters: “ I have — ah — as far as the media is concerned, it's very simple. The matter was fully investigated, and I was completely cleared, and that's where I'm gonna leave it.”
| |
|
HOMELAND HEARINGS HOOKY: FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY and Secretary of Homeland Security ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS were scheduled to testify before the House and Senate Homeland Security committees this week about the “threats to the homeland.” But at the last minute, they pulled out of both hearings. Unsurprisingly, the top lawmakers on the panels are miffed. Senate Homeland Security Committee Chair GARY PETERS (D-Mich.) said in a statement that their “refusal to speak publicly about their departments' efforts to address the threats our nation faces robs Americans of critical information. The American people deserve transparency and accountability on these issues.” Kentucky Sen. RAND PAUL, the top Republican on the panel, went further, writing on X: “The American people deserve to hold these officials accountable for their actions under the Biden Administration.”
| | | | Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now. | | | | | | |
|
TAKING ON KLEPTOCRATS: British Foreign Secretary DAVID LAMMY announced today that the U.K. will target foreign governments and oligarchs’ purchases of property with new sanctions, homing in on a growing class of elites from Russia and other countries that have used British real estate to evade sanctions. In a video posted to X, Lammy said that “corrupt actors like these loot wealth from their countries and their fellow citizens to line their own pockets, fueling wars and other security threats in the U.K. and overseas, wealth that could be supporting education, health care and infrastructure, the very building blocks of stability and economic growth.” London real estate has become a prime tool in the arsenal of foreign governments and oligarchs looking to squirrel away money and evade international sanctions. That includes Russian oligarchs looking to evade the long-arm of Western sanctions related to the war in Ukraine. These transactions have not only driven up housing costs, but also served as a vehicle for money laundering and have been a sore spot for successive British governments.
| |
|
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Adm. MIKE MULLEN (Ret.), the former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been named as the new chair of the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition’s National Advisory Council. — Leaving your job in response to the election? Considering a career change? Let us know. Email your news to rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com
| |
— TANYA GOUDSOUZIAN and MURAT ASLAN, Responsible Statecraft: Is Turkey's big break with Israel for real? — MATTHEW KASSEL, Jewish Insider: Real estate mogul Witkoff is Trump’s unorthodox choice to serve as his Middle East envoy — HANNA ROSIN, The Atlantic: What Pete Hegseth’s nomination is really about
| |
— Asia Society Policy Institute, 9 a.m.: Post-election wrap-up: Asia policy in Trump's second term — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Technology and maritime security cooperation between NATO and the Indo-Pacific — Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: The future of alliances, partnerships, and the Indo-Pacific regional order — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: The future of U.S. and German policy toward Beijing — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Harnessing progress: Strengthening the Indo-Pacific through alliances and partnerships — Institute of World Politics, 4 p.m.: A lecture on "Churchill, Bolshevism, and Containment" Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who deserves to be dragged to The Hague for her actions. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would be a capable international war crimes prosecutor. Correction: Wednesday’s newsletter misstated the mission of a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace task force. It will review the future of non-proliferation.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | |
| | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us
| | | | |
