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| By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
 Unlike 2016, U.S. allies weren’t left shocked and reeling by Donald Trump's reelection this time around, but they’re still unnerved about what his return to the White House will mean for global security. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
| With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric For a pulse check on the state of global democracy and international security this weekend, look no further than Nova Scotia. Top defense and security leaders are convening in Canada today through Sunday for the annual Halifax International Security Forum — a gathering that likes to think of itself as the Davos for serious national security workhorses. What it may lack in glitz and glamour it makes up for in serious policy debates.
That’s why defense and foreign ministers — and a sizable delegation of U.S. lawmakers — will be there. Also on the ground: your trusty POLITICO national security team. Here’s a list of what we’re watching at the Halifax forum, and issues we’ll be pressing said ministers and lawmakers on while we’re there: The Trump factor: Unlike 2016, U.S. allies weren’t left shocked and reeling by DONALD TRUMP’s reelection this time around, but they’re still unnerved about what his return to the White House will mean for global security. Expect the congressional delegation to Halifax, led by Sens. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) and JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) to get questions about what Trump’s reelection means for the United States’ role in the world. Unnerved allies are looking for reassurance that Washington is a reliable partner and superpower. Many senior European officials have publicly taken a “nothing to see here” approach to the news of Trump’s election, but we’ll be peeking under the hood of these talking points to see how nervous they really are. Revamp the Ukraine narrative: The war in Ukraine passed its grim 1,000-day mark, and Russia is making slow (but costly) advances in eastern Ukraine ahead of Trump entering office. Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN threatened to target countries that supplied Ukraine with weapons with missile strikes in a national address on Thursday — the latest sign of a potential escalation. But PETER VAN PRAAGH, president of the Halifax forum, said he wants to punch holes in the growing narrative that Ukraine (and by extension the West) is losing to Russia. The fact that Ukraine has lasted 1,000 days in what Putin planned to be a three-day “special military operation” is case in point. “In fact, this is a winnable war for Ukraine,” Van Praagh said. “Our message is that all allies led by the United States need to push Russia out of Ukraine.” Turning that narrative on its head will be an uphill battle, to say the least. Axis of Evil 2.0? Natsec bigwigs have been increasingly warning about the growing coordination between Western adversaries — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. (Van Praagh refers to this group as the CRINKs). Whatever you call it, we’re expecting to hear a lot more from senior national security officials about how exactly these adversaries are cooperating. The next question will be if there’s any growing consensus on a strategy to counteract their cooperation. Arctic jitters: Canada plays a leading role in the West’s thinking about Arctic security and how Russia and China are working to expand their geopolitical influence in the High North. At the same time, Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s government has faced mounting criticism that Canada isn’t ponying up enough funds to modernize Arctic security infrastructure, or spending enough on defense writ large. That is likely to be a major sore spot with the incoming Trump administration, given its priority on getting NATO allies to boost defense spending. The Americans are “pretty busy on the Pacific side and on the Atlantic side. And they'd sure like it if Canada covered the Arctic, which is our own territory,” said HEATHER EXNER-PIROT, an expert on Arctic security with the Business Council of Canada. “It is the vulnerable flank.” At Halifax, we’re expecting a lively debate about the geopolitics of the Arctic against the backdrop of a revanchist Russia and China’s emergence as a global superpower with an eye on Arctic resources. That also includes whether Canada is up to the task of being a leading voice in this debate.
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| A message from Lockheed Martin: Bringing every domain closer, no matter the distance.
Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | BLINKEN’S ITALIAN JAUNT: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is headed to Italy before Thanksgiving for a spate of meetings with G7 partners and POPE FRANCIS. The State Department announced today that Blinken is headed to Italy tomorrow through Nov. 27. He’ll meet with G7 foreign ministers in Anagni and Fiuggi, towns southeast of Rome. And in Vatican City, he’ll meet with the Pontiff, top Vatican diplomat Cardinal PAUL GALLAGHER and top Vatican official Cardinal PIETRO PAROLIN. Among the issues that will be discussed in U.S. engagements over the next few days are the Russia-Ukraine war, conflict in the Middle East and crises in Haiti and Sudan. BEN-GVIR FACES DISMISSAL CALLS: Firebrand Israeli Security Minister ITAMAR BEN-GVIR is facing serious scrutiny after the country’s top prosecutor called for his dismissal from cabinet. As Reuters’ EMILY ROSE reports, non-governmental organizations have petitioned the country’s supreme court to order the dismissal of Ben-Gvir from Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s cabinet. The calls follow Attorney General GALI BAHARAV-MIARA’s decision to send a letter to Netanyahu asking the prime minister to consider firing Ben-Gvir. In the letter, Baharav-Miara says he allegedly interfered directly in police operations and politicized promotions within the force, threatening its apolitical status. But those efforts are causing a split within the fragile Israeli government and are threatening to plunge Israel into another constitutional crisis over the powers of the country’s top court. ORBÁN TAUNTS THE ICC: Many NATO heads of state, from Italy’s GIORGIA MELONI to Canada’s Trudeau, vowed to respect arrest warrants issued yesterday against Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court. But at least one European member state is thumbing its nose at the tribunal, and it’s exactly who you think. Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN is not only vowing to continue welcoming Netanyahu — he’s even inviting him for a visit. As our own CSONGOR KÖRÖMI reports, Orbán told Hungarian state radio this morning that the ICC decision is wrong and added: “We have to confront this decision, and so later today I will invite the prime minister of the Israelis, Mr. Netanyahu, to visit Hungary.” Hungary, unlike other countries who condemned the court’s decision like the United States, is a signatory to the Rome Statute. And Orbán’s move will pose another blow to the international tribunal’s legitimacy (which has always been limited by its inability to force prosecutions of those it accuses of gross human rights abuses).
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Rep. SYDNEY KAMLAGER-DOVE (D-Calif.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who spoke with NatSec Daily on Wednesday to highlight her push with Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) to boost the State Department’s sports diplomacy efforts. Eric couldn’t let her jump off the call without asking her the most important question in the national security scene. “When I'm here in D.C., I like to go to Service Bar. I will tell you, especially after reading about the nomination of TULSI GABBARD as the director of [national intelligence], I really had to have a drink,” she joked. “So, my drink of choice has been a Moscow Mule, although I'm going to rename it the Kyiv Mule.” When she’s back home in Los Angeles, Kamlager-Dove loves swinging by some of her favorite speakeasies and ordering Paper Planes and what she describes as “Dark Secrets and Clandestine-like drinks.” Worry not, Angelenos, she didn’t betray the locations of any cool and exclusive ones.
Here at NatSec Daily, we’re also fans of “Dark Secrets and Clandestine-like drinks” — and a good speakeasy. Drop us a line with your recommendations. Cheers, representative! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | | | Democracy is facing a multi-front attack on nearly every continent. At the Halifax International Security Forum, senior military officers and thought leaders will have to choose whether to stand together against these challenges or go down the path of division. Follow the proceedings here. | | | | | | |
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GABBARD FACES SCRUTINY: Republican senators are keen to open up former Hawaii Congressmember TULSI GABBARD’s FBI file and see for themselves how extensive her foreign contacts are and what vulnerabilities she might bring to the job of Director of National Intelligence. As PunchBowl News’ ANDREW DESIDERIO reports, Gabbard faces an incredibly hawkish pool of vetters — the Senate Intelligence Committee — that wants to be sure her record is as clean as possible before she’s entrusted with the responsibility of leading the constellation of varied U.S. intelligence agencies. And while Republicans are offering deference to Trump’s picks for now, they’re making it clear that might not last forever. “I start out saying, OK, this is an individual the president wants on his team,” said Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), a member of the selective panel. “But now let’s talk about information that maybe the president didn’t have, or information that comes up, and at that stage do we advise the president to look elsewhere or do we offer our consent?” That could bode poorly for Gabbard, who is facing scrutiny for her past comments on the war in Ukraine and her past expressions of support for Syrian President BASHAR AL-ASSAD, who has been accused of committing war crimes against his people.
| | TELCO HACK SCOPE: An ongoing Chinese hack into U.S. cellular networks may have affected more telecommunications providers than initially known. As our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!), the breach, which saw Chinese hackers affiliated with the group Salt Typhoon listen in on conversations between senior U.S. officials and siphon user data, is believed to have affected up to 80 providers — including providers outside of the U.S. Democratic senators are working fast to protect U.S. communications networks against state hacks — as the intrusion rattles lawmakers on the Hill. As our friends at Morning Cybersecurity reported this morning (for Pros!), Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.), RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) are all working on telecommunications sector cybersecurity legislation in light of the widespread hack. It’s unclear what’s in any of the bills, or if they’d get traction with Republicans, but John explains that hints exist about the range of options that could be on the table. Wyden has pushed the Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice to adopt new rules for the security of legal wiretap systems. And Wyden has also pushed for strict corporate security and accountability requirements.
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| | |   | | | | | TALKING TURKEY: Members of Congress are urging the Biden administration to brief them on the relationship between Ankara and the Palestinian militant group Hamas now that its leaders have reportedly moved to Turkey. In a letter to Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES and Blinken, the bipartisan group of House lawmakers, led by Reps. DAN GOLDMAN (D-N.Y.), JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.), GUS BILIRAKIS (R-Fla.) and NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS (R-N.Y.), want top officials to explain, among other things, how far ties between Ankara and Hamas go and what connections Hamas may have had to past terrorist attacks in Turkey, Cyprus and Syria.
“We have serious concerns about the security implications of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member hosting, and potentially aiding, Hamas, a U.S. and EU designated foreign terrorist organization,” the lawmakers wrote in the letter, shared with NatSec Daily. They added that those reports are “deeply concerning and dramatically escalate existing concerns about Turkey’s relationship with the terrorist group.”
The American Hellenic Institute, a group that advocates for better U.S. ties with Greece and Cyprus and has long been critical of Turkey, celebrated the letter. In a statement to NatSec Daily, the group’s legislative director ALEXANDER CHRISTOFOR said the letter will help “ensure policymakers are informed about the true extent of Turkey’s role in supporting Hamas” and the lawmakers are helping “ensure that U.S. security in the Eastern Mediterranean will not be jeopardized.”
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COLOMBIAN COMMANDER SANCTIONED: The U.S. government is sanctioning a former top Colombian general and his family for alleged extrajudicial killings committed during the South American country’s internal armed conflict. The State Department announced today that there was “credible evidence” that Gen. MARIO MONTOYA URIBE — the former commander of Colombia’s armed forces who resigned in 2008 amid public outcry over the military’s alleged killings of civilians during the country’s war against left-wing guerrillas — “was involved in extrajudicial killings of civilians, which were falsely reported as combat deaths during Colombia’s internal armed conflict.” Under the new sanctions, Montoya Uribe, who was charged with war crimes in 2023, and his family members are barred from entering the United States.
| | — BETHAN SAUNDERS is now military legislative assistant for Sen. MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii). She most recently was a policy adviser in the office of the undersecretary of Defense for policy.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Clear insight means stronger foresight.
When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross-domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | — Rep. DAN CRENSHAW, National Review: No, it’s not World War III. It’s the leverage Trump needs — PARKER YESKO, The New Yorker: Turning a blind eye to war crimes
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— German Marshall Fund of the United States, 8:15 a.m.: Geopolitics and energy security — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Difficult decisions: Allies' perspectives on the U.S.-China rivalry — Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program, 11 a.m.: Bombing to provoke: Rockets, missiles, and drones as instruments of fear and coercion Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Rosie Perper, whose FBI files we want to review. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, whose record is spotless. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us
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