| How has Rachel Reeves’ budget impacted on the real economy? Today we had a swathe of economic data to give the first indicators — and it’s not looking good. Growth in the private sector looks like it’s falling, and the business verdict is in: it’s “a clear thumbs down.” The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by S&P Global fell below 50 in November, which suggests the private sector economy is now contracting after previously solid but unspectacular growth. The dip in confidence comes after businesses shouldered the bulk of Reeves’ £40 billion’s worth of tax increases — and the survey behind the index is squarely placing the blame on her policies. “Companies are giving a clear ‘thumbs down’ to the policies announced in the budget, especially the planned increase in employers’ National Insurance contribution,” said S&P Global’s Chris Williamson of the numbers, which were worse than economists expected and the lowest reading in over a year. Retail sales also fell more than expected in October. On the plus side, consumer confidence inched upwards after it plunged during the “doom and gloom” budget speculation of the summer. But it still hasn’t returned to the level it was at before Keir Starmer made his warnings about “painful” decisions back in August, so it is hardly good news for a government that has made economic growth its “number one mission.” It’s not been a good week for Reeves, against the backdrop of a steady trickle of stories about her CV. We’re expecting to hear more from the business community next week on the reaction to the budget — and going by these numbers, Reeves might well just want to turn off the news for a few days. Want this in your inbox each weekday? You can sign up here. | 
