Green Daily
We're way into overtime now |

Good evening from Baku. COP29 talks have officially run into overtime. We’ve seen two drafts of the deal so far and expect the next one, promised some time on Saturday, will be the final. While you wait, catch up with all of our COP29 coverage — which is free — on Bloomberg.com.

Notes from the ground

By Siobhan Wagner

A sign of progress in COP world is seeing fewer and fewer brackets in a draft deal. The one we got this afternoon was not only bracket free, but it also had a number: $250 billion. 

The latest proposal called for rich nations to “take the lead” in providing this much annually by 2035 through a wide variety of sources, including public finance as well as bilateral and multilateral deals. 

It drew swift condemnation from climate advocates in developing and vulnerable nations, who’ve said what’s on offer is far less than they were expecting. Even the Azeri lead negotiator for COP29 said it wasn’t enough. 

“It doesn’t correspond to our fair and ambitious goal, but we will continue,” he told reporters in reference to the $250 billion target. “We are committed.”

For awhile we were getting a sense there could be a consensus on a figure around $300 billion or more. Will that be the number to get a deal over the line?

Who knows. We’re already into overtime here, and some people say they’re willing to wait for what they want no matter how long it takes. Even if it’s not until next year. 

“Poor countries don’t need to be held hostage in Baku,” said Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa. If rich countries fail to deliver what they owe in climate finance, then they should be forced to come back next year in Brazil with a better plan.”

You can read our full story on where things stand on Bloomberg.com. 

Big number

$1 billion
More than this was secured through Article 6 deals during COP29. During week one, Ghana revealed it has $800 million in agreements to host Article 6 projects, while Norway said it's ready to invest up to $740 million in contracts with Benin, Jordan, Senegal and Zambia.

Quote of the day

"I have serious reservations about whether what we've seen of human nature thus far would encourage you to believe we're actually going to claw back that far."
John Kerry
Former US climate envoy
Kerry, who recently joined Steyer’s Galvanize Climate Solutions investment firm, said the world is likely to  blow past a goal of limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, raising doubts about whether even “clawing back” to that target is possible.

Your evening read 

By Dan Murtaugh and Shadab Nazmi

China’s whirlwind economic expansion and endless appetite for polluting fuels — particularly coal — have been intertwined for decades. As annual gross domestic product, in current US dollars, jumped from about $361 billion in 1990 to around $14.7 trillion by 2020, the nation’s coal consumption quadrupled and carbon dioxide emissions more than tripled. When China surpassed Japan as the second biggest economy in 2010, it was already responsible for a quarter of global carbon pollution and has continued to expand that footprint, accounting for more than 30% of last year’s total.

The acceleration from China has been so rapid that its share of all global emissions since 1850 is already roughly equal to the 27 European Union nations combined — countries that in many cases began their industrialization at least a century earlier.

A solar thermal power station at the Dunhuang Photovoltaic Industrial Park in Dunhuang, Gansu Province, in October. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

Now the factors that have propelled China’s climate-wrecking spree appear to be retreating. An unprecedented adoption of solar, wind and other clean power sources has begun to limit the country’s coal consumption. Just as importantly, a sagging economy that saw growth slow in the third quarter to the weakest pace in 18 months has cooled the most emissions-intensive corners of heavy industry like steel and cement. And President Xi Jinping’s long-term strategy is for a permanent shift from polluting sectors to cleaner, high-tech manufacturing

That combination has put China on course for a scenario considered almost inconceivable at the start of this decade — the country’s carbon emissions may already have peaked, well ahead of Xi’s 2030 deadline.

You can read the full story for free on Bloomberg.com. Also, check out Bloomberg Original’s weekly doc on China’s potential emissions milestone.

Worth a listen

At COP29 in Baku, Akshat Rathi was joined on stage at Bloomberg Green’s live event by Ali Zaidi, the White House national climate advisor. Zaidi argued that it would be “economic malpractice” for the Trump administration to abandon the energy transition. Plus, veteran climate diplomat Jonathan Pershing explained why he believes global competition will result in an “acceleration of action” on green policy. Listen now, and subscribe on Apple,  Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

Photo finish

To give you an idea on how hectic climate talks can get, take a look at Susana Muhamad, Colombia's environment minister. On Thursday we found her typing up the draft of a statement she was about to read at a press conference. One of her support staff held the laptop as leaders of the developing group negotiating parties looked on. COPs present many spontaneous moments when the normal diplomatic rules are suspended, but even by that standard this was an unusual moment.

Photographer: Akshat Rathi/Bloomberg