Good morning. South Sudan faces a dire future marked by corruption, civil war and humanitarian disaster – more on that below, along with Canada’s slumping condo sales and Justin Trudeau’s Mar-a-Lago dinner with Donald Trump. But first:

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• Canada’s Auditor-General finds that Ottawa gave Accenture too much control over $313-million in CEBA sole-source contracts
• NATO is expected to sidestep Ukraine’s call for a quick invitation

After two decades of bloody conflict that split Sudan apart, Western governments and Hollywood A-listers alike embraced South Sudan’s independence in 2011. Canada’s foreign affairs minister at the time, John Baird, said that the creation of the Republic of South Sudan would be a “historic occasion” to build “a brighter, better future.” George Clooney, Don Cheadle and Matt Dillon used their collective star power to lobby for secession, too.

But 13 years later, despite the $1.1-billion in foreign aid that Canada has sent to South Sudan, the world’s newest country has slid perilously close to a failed state. The government is ruled by two rivals who spent nearly half that time engaged in a ruinous civil war. Their 2018 peace agreement has never been fully implemented; there’s been no investigation into the killings, sexual violence and starvation that contributed to an estimated 400,000 deaths. South Sudan hasn’t even held a single election – the one scheduled for this month was cancelled and postponed until 2026. And a critical oil pipeline ruptured, so the country, which depends on oil for 90 per cent of its revenue, hasn’t been able to pay police and soldiers their wages this year. Many have simply walked off the job.

In his new dispatch for The Globe, Africa Bureau Chief Geoffrey York reports on the corruption and instability that’s kept South Sudan’s promised future far out of reach. I spoke with him about what went wrong and what comes next.

Let’s go back to the early days of independence. What was the hope for South Sudan? And how quickly did it go off the rails?

Back in those optimistic days of 2011, most Western leaders had a naive belief that South Sudan’s separation from Sudan would be a magic bullet, ending decades of violence. I still remember George Clooney laughing merrily with friends as he attended an event in South Sudan’s capital, Juba, after the referendum on secession. Not only did South Sudan enjoy the support of Hollywood celebrities, it was also backed by the U.S. and Canadian governments, which had been lobbied heavily by Christian evangelical groups that perceived South Sudan – far too simplistically – as a land of Christian victims, persecuted by Muslims in the north. Two years later, South Sudan collapsed in a catastrophic civil war, triggered by a power struggle among its own politicians.

You mean the president, Salva Kiir, and the vice-president, Riek Machar – once bitter foes who formed a unity government in 2020. What’s the state of their alliance now?

After years of feuding that triggered destructive battles among militias across the country, these two powerful men have reached some kind of an accommodation today, but their relationship is murky and unpredictable. In the past, peace agreements between them have sometimes collapsed, sparking fresh outbreaks of fighting. With the government’s oil revenue in drastic decline this year, Kiir has much less ability to buy the support of key militias and political factions, which could explain some of the recent violence in Juba and elsewhere. He is also in poor health at the age of 73. Nobody knows who will succeed him, and that uncertainty could be heightening the internal tensions in the government.

What is life like in South Sudan’s capital?

Juba is by far the most developed part of South Sudan, with a fast-growing population and paved roads that don’t extend far outside the capital. But it is a young and sprawling city, without much infrastructure. When I visited the city in the past, I would usually stay in rough camps where you slept in converted shipping containers and ate in military-style canteens. New luxury hotels have been erected, but most of the population still lives in poverty, including many in makeshift camps for displaced people. The gunfire that killed four passersby in a busy neighbourhood on Nov. 21, during a battle between security forces and the bodyguards of the deposed intelligence chief, is an example of how violence can erupt in the streets at any time.

South Sudan is routinely ranked as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, with billions of dollars in oil revenue disappearing from the public coffers. Where has that money gone?

Perhaps to compensate for his overly optimistic early support of South Sudan’s secession, George Clooney has become a major funder of The Sentry, the anti-corruption organization that he co-founded in 2016. Its investigative work has unravelled many hidden details of the graft and theft. Much of the stolen oil money has been invested in expensive real estate and luxury vehicles in neighbouring Kenya and Uganda, where South Sudan’s political and military elite can enjoy a more comfortable lifestyle. Investigations by The Sentry discovered that one of South Sudan’s top military officials, with a salary of about US$45,000 a year, was the owner of a huge US$2-million mansion in Nairobi. Another top military commander had received mysterious deposits in his bank account, totalling more than US$300,000, and owned a valuable house in Kampala. Pope Francis openly condemned the corruption when he visited South Sudan in 2023.

The Pope was also there to bring attention to the suffering of citizens. How severe is the humanitarian crisis in South Sudan?

Of the 12 million people who live in South Sudan, nine million need humanitarian assistance and protection, according to United Nations agencies. About half the population is suffering acute food insecurity – a crisis that is driven by violent conflict, economic stagnation and corruption. Climate change is adding to the misery, with 1.4 million people affected by massive flooding in recent months. And to make it all worse, the war in Sudan has pushed more than 850,000 refugees and returnees across the borders into South Sudan. Meanwhile, the world is paying little attention, with donors distracted by other crises. The UN’s food agency says it needs US$750-million to help keep the South Sudanese alive over the next six months, but it has received less than 40 per cent of this target from donor governments.

Canada has criticized the lack of elections in South Sudan, but is there anything it – or other Western governments – can actually do to bring about a free and fair vote?

The South Sudan government has been unwilling to spend the money and time needed to make the required preparations for an election – everything from voter registration and civic education to an electoral security plan and a code of conduct for the political parties. Until this is done, donors won’t offer the financial support that a complex election would need. The country is run by a small elite, who are comfortable with power-sharing deals and authoritarian measures against their rivals. Donor governments such as Canada have often been guilty of ignoring or tolerating the abuses, while failing to take a united stand to apply pressure on South Sudan’s government. They also face a dilemma: How can they reduce aid without hurting the millions of people who desperately need help? And so the peace agreement remains unfulfilled, and the disaster continues.

Within two hours of Donald Trump’s social-media tariff announcement, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau got the president-elect on the phone to propose a bit of face time; within four days, they were digging into steak and mashed potatoes together at Mar-a-Lago. (The dinner’s soundtrack proved a tad distracting: At one point, everyone stood for the national anthem, and at another, Trump paused discussion to wait for a Pavarotti high note.) The tariffs may still be on, but Trudeau promises it was “an excellent conversation” – read more about how the evening unfolded here