Good morning. After 15 months of conflict, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza, paving the way for aid and the release of hostages. Here are the latest developments.

After more than 460 days of war – and months of false starts – Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire that would involve a major surge of aid into Gaza and the release of hostages. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced the ceasefire yesterday in Doha, where his mediators have spent weeks with representatives from the U.S. and Egypt ironing out its terms. The Israeli cabinet still hasn’t voted on the deal, though; a meeting scheduled for this morning was delayed after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of making last-minute demands. In the meantime, Israel continues its strikes on Gaza.

If Israel’s cabinet does ratify the ceasefire, it will begin on Sunday and be broken into three phases. Here’s what we know so far.

The first phase

All fighting is meant to pause during the initial, 42-day stage, which would see Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza’s cities to a 700-metre buffer zone inside the strip. Hamas has agreed to release 33 Israeli hostages – including children, female civilians and soldiers, men older than 50, and the wounded or sick – in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Three hostages will be freed on Day 1 of the ceasefire, four more on Day 7, and the remaining 26 over the next five weeks. For each hostage, Israel will release between 30 and 50 prisoners.

Israeli forces would also pull out of the Netzarim Corridor, a military strip that has cut Gaza in half. Roughly 90 per cent of Gaza’s 2.3 million population have been displaced, often multiple times, and in this first phase, they could begin to move within the territory. The deal calls for at least 200,000 tents and 60,000 temporary housing units to be brought into Gaza. The UN estimates that 92 per cent of homes in the territory have been damaged or destroyed.

Israel will allow 600 truckloads of aid into Gaza each day of the initial six-week phase – although the UN warns that scaling up to that level will be a challenge. Israeli restrictions, looting by armed gangs, and a shortage of fuel and drivers have made it hard to conduct humanitarian operations. The UN said only 51 aid trucks have crossed into Gaza on an average day this month.

The next phases

On Day 16 of the first stage, provided everything has gone to plan, negotiations begin for the second phase of the ceasefire. During these six weeks, Hamas would trade the remaining hostages, mostly male soldiers, for Palestinians prisoners. Israel would also withdraw its troops entirely from Gaza – a step that Netanyahu has rejected until now.

The final stage would see the exchange of the bodies of hostages and Hamas members, and the start of a reconstruction plan for Gaza, supervised by Qatar, Egypt and the UN. It’s not yet clear who will govern Gaza after the war.

The reaction

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which has long pressed Israeli leaders to make a deal that would bring home the captives, said: “We are closer than ever to reuniting with our loved ones.” The UN’s Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters the organization was ready to back the ceasefire and support “the delivery of sustained humanitarian relief to the countless Palestinians who continue to suffer.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau posted on social media that the deal offered hope for “a two-state solution, where Israelis and Palestinians can live securely within internationally recognized borders.”

U.S. President Joe Biden, flanked at the White House yesterday by Vice-President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said the ceasefire would remain in place as long as Israel and Hamas continued to negotiate a long-term truce. He credited months of “dogged and painstaking American diplomacy” for securing the deal, but acknowledged some co-operation between his outgoing administration and president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming one. “In the past few days, we have been speaking as one team,” Biden said.

Trump disagreed – and was quick to wrestle away the credit. “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November,” he wrote on social media. “We have achieved so much without even being in the White House. Just imagine all of the wonderful things that will happen when I return.”

The cost

Israeli ground operations began just after Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas crossed the border, killed 1,200 people and took another 250 hostage. Since then, more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, although a recent study in The Lancet found the death toll could be 40 per cent higher. Israeli authorities believe a third of the roughly 100 remaining hostages are dead.

More than 90 per cent of Gaza’s population faces acute food insecurity, and by the end of 2024, only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were even partially functional. None of the territory’s schools are in operation; almost all of them have been destroyed. The UN estimates that the bomb-filled debris – more than 37 million tonnes of it across the territory – could take 14 years to clear. Even with a ceasefire, Gaza will need 350 years to restore its GDP to pre-war levels. “Intense military operations,” the UN said, “have left unprecedented humanitarian, environmental and social catastrophe.” It’s hard to fathom the scale of the work ahead.

More from The Globe

In Canada: The ceasefire deal draws mixed reactions from Canadian families

Opinion: With a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal so close, Marsha Lederman writes, can we dare to hope?

In photos: Celebrations across Israel and Gaza to news of the ceasefire agreement