Flagship

China GDP beats expectations

China said its economic growth met official targets, but some analysts were skeptical and others warned of challenges ahead. The country reported better-than-expected GDP growth in the fourth quarter, helping it reach Beijing’s goal of full-year expansion of 5%, thanks in part to economic stimulus and importers elsewhere ramping up purchases of Chinese goods ahead of expected tariffs from the US. Yet the chief China economist at the Australian bank Macquarie said the country would still be grappling with the risk of deflation, growing numbers of ordinary Chinese — facing high unemployment and stagnant salaries — are complaining of worsening living standards, and any targets for the year ahead will face “headwinds from tariffs and sanctions,” ING’s Greater China chief economist noted.

Gaza’s unsteady truce

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a long-discussed Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal was finalized, but major hurdles remained. The six-week truce will involve the release of 33 hostages, a welcome pause in a 15-month conflict in which 46,000 Palestinians and more than 1,000 Israelis have been killed. Israel’s security cabinet is set to approve the agreement today, ahead of its implementation on Sunday. Yet opposition within Israel is significant — one senior minister has pledged to quit, calling the ceasefire “disastrous” — and even if the agreement is followed to the letter, what follows it is unclear, with the “second stage” of the truce threatening to “throw up even more obstacles than the first,” a Haaretz columnist warned.

Hearing for Trump’s DHS pick

US President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Homeland Security faces a Senate confirmation hearing today, an appearance that will highlight what is likely to be Washington’s hardening immigration policy. If confirmed, Kristi Noem — who some thought could have been Trump’s running mate until she published an ill-fated memoir — has vowed to see through the incoming president’s crackdown on undocumented immigration. Trump’s threats have already sparked a wave of “self-deportations,” as some migrants foresee increasingly unbearable conditions, The Associated Press reported. However, one expert warned in Foreign Policy that Trump’s threatened measures, including mass deportations, could wipe almost $1 trillion off the US economy in the next decade.

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Bolsonaro barred from Trump trip

Brazil’s Supreme Court banned former President Jair Bolsonaro from traveling to Donald Trump’s inauguration, arguing that he could use the trip to flee the country. Bolsonaro is under investigation for his role in the political violence that gripped Brasília after his electoral defeat. Trump, who takes office on Monday, has already upended Latin American politics: Bolsonaro himself said he hopes Trump’s return will lead to an easing of sanctions against his movement, while regional leaders have tried to curry favor with the incoming administration. Trump is also having an impact economically: Chinese soybean buyers have begun acquiring seeds from Brazil instead of the US over fears that Trump might impose tariffs, as he’s repeatedly vowed to.

US sanctions Sudan army chief

The US imposed sanctions on the head of Sudan’s armed forces and reportedly believes the military has used chemical weapons in the country’s two-year civil war. Washington’s announcement — a week after similar penalties against the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces — points to its belief that “neither man is fit to govern a future, peaceful Sudan,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. The sanctions, combined with the chemical weapons assessment reported by The New York Times, point to the brutality of the war, which has resulted in what is by many measures the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, with tens of thousands dead and more than 10 million displaced, alongside a widening famine.

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Yearslong droughts on the increase

Multi-year droughts have become more common over the last 40 years, research suggested. Climate models have long predicted that changing weather patterns driven by global warming will increase the number and severity of droughts, but the theory had not been demonstrated. Researchers looked at rainfall records and evaporation rates and found that areas affected by droughts lasting at least two years were expanding 20,000 square miles (50,000 square kilometers) a year. In some regions, such as grasslands, this shift has led to severe declines in vegetation and massive crop failures, Carbon Brief reported: Droughts in Chile, the western US, and Australia have extended fire seasons and hit water reservoirs.

Khan sentenced, again

Pakistani authorities jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan for another 14 years in a corruption case, ramping up tensions in a country grappling with economic issues and worsening insecurity. Khan has insisted since his 2023 arrest that the litany of charges against him are politically motivated. They come with Pakistan in the midst of an economic tailspin which has required an International Monetary Fund bailout, and with violence on the rise: 2024 was the deadliest for Pakistani security forces in nearly a decade, with militant attacks having risen 70% compared to the prior year. “Pakistanis have… paid a huge price for the failures of our ruling elite,” Dawn, the country’s most-read English-language daily, lamented in an editorial.

As Donald Trump’s second inauguration approaches and global leaders head to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Mixed Signals asks: What will the media’s role be in an increasingly unstable era? Will it bring more order or disorder to global politics?

Ben and Max invite Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, to explore how global leaders interact with new media and whether digital media is shaping global politics or vice versa. They also discuss Ian’s run-in with Elon Musk in 2022 and how Donald Trump’s second term could influence media leaders like Zuckerberg and Bezos.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now. →

India’s growing space ambitions

India became just the fourth nation to successfully dock two spacecraft in orbit. The country’s space plans are increasingly ambitious, and orbital docking is a crucial step toward building a space station or landing on the Moon. The two craft launched together, then orbited in parallel for some time — the docking was scheduled for Jan. 7 but delayed for testing. Space was once the preserve of the US and Russian states, but other countries are becoming bigger players, as are private companies: After Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin managed its first launch this week, SpaceX’s Starship had its seventh test flight, although it experienced a “rapid unscheduled disassembly” over the ocean which forced US airlines to divert flights.

Nintendo readies gaming update

Nintendo announced that the Switch 2, successor to one of the biggest-selling gaming consoles ever, will be released this year. The release amounts to a hefty gamble in an industry that is by itself bigger than movies, music, and television combined. Manufacturers often sell consoles at a loss, hoping to make it back on games sales: The 2017 Switch revived the firm’s fortunes after previous bad bets. The company is also doubling down on the hardware even as consoles lose ground to PCs and mobile devices in the gaming sector, but WIRED said Nintendo’s decision to build what appeared to be an updated Switch rather than seek a bigger departure is a “smart choice” in an uncertain market.