Good morning. I’m Matt Lundy, the economics editor at The Globe and Mail. Donald Trump’s promised tariffs are looming large in our hearts and minds, and we’ll get to that first, but there are more economic indicators that Canadians shouldn’t let fly under the radar. Today, I’ll share five metrics I’ll be keeping my eye on, beyond inauguration day. But first:

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• Canada’s household and mortgage credit data will be released, as well as Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases for November.
• In the U.S., we’ll get data on building permits and housing starts for December.
• Earnings include Schlumberger NV, State Street Corp., and Truist Financial Corp.

While Trump’s exact tariff plan remains unclear, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says he’s hearing three options for executive orders that the incoming president may issue when he takes office:

• 25-per-cent levy on Canadian goods
• 10-per-cent tax for all countries
• An escalating tariff that starts low and rises over time

Meanwhile, sources say that Canada will unveil proposed retaliation on Monday immediately if Trump announces tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he has created the Council on Canada-U.S. Relations, comprised of nearly 20 advisers to help him address U.S. tariff threats.

Read more from The Globe

• Explained: A reality check on the potential options for responding to Trump
• Editorial: Canada should fight U.S. tariffs with tariffs
• Opinion: Canada is about to pay a steep price for its chronic failure to diversify trade away from the U.S.
• Coming: Check back over the weekend to see more coverage on where Canada has leverage

Before I became an editor in October, I reported on economics for five years. Naturally, my job is consumed by president-elect Trump and the prospect of hefty tariffs on imports of Canadian goods, which could prove devastating for our country. And it’s an open question of how Canada would respond. Retaliatory tariffs? Export taxes or bans? Targeted measures on U.S. goods (example: orange juice)? All of the above have been floated by policymakers.

We’re heading into a volatile period for trade policy when Trump returns to the White House on Monday.

But that’s not all I have my eyes on. After several bruising years of high inflation and (relatively) high interest rates, Canada is hoping for a rebound this year – one that could be dashed by any number of non-tariff threats.

Here are five indicators that I’m watching closely.

Insolvencies

It’s been a really tough stretch for Canadians’ personal finances. That’s apparent in the insolvency data. Over the first 11 months of 2024, Canadians filed for around 137,000 insolvencies, an increase of 12.5 per cent from the same period a year earlier. (Insolvencies are comprised of bankruptcies and consumer proposals.) With many people renewing their mortgages in 2025 at higher interest rates, there is scope for more financial hardship.

Rents

This is a rare spot of good news: The rental housing market is simmering down, after a period of sharp increases. The average listing price for all residential property types in Canada dropped 3.2 per cent in 2024 to $2,109 as of December, according to Rentals.ca. In some markets, there is plenty of supply in the pipeline, much of it planned before the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates in 2022. And because the federal government is trying to pause population growth for a couple years – after a period of explosive growth – this will ease some pressure on housing demand. Look for rents to continue stagnating.

Job vacancies

It’s a dreadful time for job seekers. As of October, there were slightly more than 500,000 job vacancies across Canada, down from roughly one million in mid-2022. Companies are generally not laying off people en masse, but they’re especially cautious about adding new hires. With interest rates on the decline, it’s possible that employers will grow more comfortable with expansion. But the potential for steep tariffs under Trump could derail those plans.

Retail sales